Situation in Ukraine

[Gregor-y]

I suppose that depends if there are enough Russians in Transistria to cause trouble for Moldova. Not likely anytime soon since Russia would have to swallow Ukraine first and then would be in conflict with Romania, a NATO member.

[zako85]

Also what will Russia do if lots of countries stop buying from them?

Much of the Russian government budget is based on taxes from the exports of energy commodities: natural gas, oil, maybe some coal. There is of course some trade in manufactured goods (Russia imports electronics and manufactured goods and sells weapons) as well as agricultural commodities. If foreign countries stopped buying some of those key commodities, it would of course hit Russia hard. However, I don't see sanctions of this sort happening unless the West is prepared for an all out Cold War v2.0 with all the costs that implies. When you place trade sanctions on a country, you don't just hurt that country. You're hurting yourself. Once sanctions are in place, you have to buy the stuff elsewhere at a higher prices, if at all possible. So serious trade sanctions are not going to be possible at the moment.

One interesting possibility is to pull some kind of financial trick to make the Russian Ruble collapse. Russians depend on a strong ruble so they could afford to buy a whole lot of imported goods. Once a smartphone costs as much as a typical monthly salary, it could make things harder for Russians. However, Russia sits on a war chest known as the "Stabilization Fund" which receives a portion of commodity taxes when the price of oil is higher than some specific amount in dollars per barrel. Supposedly, as of March the fund has 440 billion in foreign currencies, so collapsing Russian Ruble is going to be very hard and very expensive.

Do you think Russia have plans for there next conquest?

All questions which are worrying.

I don't think Russia has an outright plan to attack its neighbors, but after Georgia and Crimea, I am sure certain "contingency plans" may exist. The most likely target could be Ukraine again. The country has a relatively weak military, and it is divided along linguistic lines. The Ukrainian South East speaks Russian and does not trust politicians who represent the west Ukraine. The three big cities in the east are already experiencing an open revolt, with people rallying demanding the ability to elect their governors, some are asking for Russia's help or demand the right for referendum, just like in Crimea. In some ways, the East mirrors the situation in Crimea, although the East is not as important to Russia strategically as Crimea. All in all, a Russian invasion of mainland Ukraine will look very bad and the West will have to revise its response against Russia. So I assume that Russian invasion is only possible under extreme circumstances (e.g. NATO accelerates Ukraine's admission or a real civil war in Ukraine)

Baltic countries: highly unlikely. Russia already lost and conceded there. They're all members of NATO and NATO is bound to defend them. They're also members of European Union, so a Russia invasion will result in serious sanctions.

Belarus and Kazakhstan: highly unlikely. These countries are in pro-Russian camp. They're members of Russia-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (Russian version of NATO) and Customs Union of Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Russia.

Moldova: The main sticking point is the status of Transnistria and the rights of Russians and Ukrainians living there. If the current status quo is preserved or if the Transnistria conflict is resolved in a way that satisfies the local Slavic minority, I don't see any reason why Russia would want a broader conflict in that area. For one, it's a conflict that Russia could actually lose because of the logistics. Moldova does not share a land border with Russia. The only Russian troops that could take part in the conflict would have to be airlifted to Moldova or go through Ukrainian territory (almost unthinkable because of Ukrainian resistance). Romania, a NATO member, certainly will not like this.

Georgia: The Russo-Georgian war started after Georgian troops invaded Georgia's separatist region of South Ossetia and fired on South Ossetian and Russian peacekeeping troops stationed there. The Georgian objective was to reconquer South Ossetia by force in a surprise attack. To me this seemed like a totally insane crazy mission since day one. It's akin to poking a sleeping bear with sticks, but apparently the former Georgian president Saakashvili was crazy enough to do it. His party lost the power, and he is now living abroad. It's unlikely the same type of conflict could repeat unless another crazy comes to power in Georgia.

Azerbaijan: This country threads safely, without joining the Russian security organization or the customs union, but also without doing things that are openly anti-Russian. They do a lot of trade with Russia. However, there is the frozen conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia over the Karabakh region, de jure part of Azerbaijan but de facto controlled by Armenians. I wouldn't be surprised if it could flare up again. Not right now, but one-two decades later, and then Russia will have to decide if it wants to choose sides. In many ways Russia has already chosen Armenia's side because Armenia is member of the security organization and the customs union, and there is a major Russian military base in Armenia.

[moto99]

Once a smartphone costs as much as a typical monthly salary, it could make things harder for Russians.

Yes, because smartphones are the basic thing everybody needs to live...
I live in Poland, EU country, and smartphones here costs a monthly salary. What crimes has Poland commited so it's punished so hard by other countries? (I don't remember anexing anybody in the last decade)
From what I know, smartphones are already expensive in Russia, they cost more than in the West.

[Roamy]

Yes, because smartphones are the basic thing everybody needs to live...
I live in Poland, EU country, and smartphones here costs a monthly salary. What crimes has Poland commited so it's punished so hard by other countries? (I don't remember anexing anybody in the last decade)
From what I know, smartphones are already expensive in Russia, they cost more than in the West.

yep I sold my old iPhone 5 for 450us to a russian.

[Gregor-y]

[Gregor-y]

The Israeli scythe is an interesting touch to an already farcical premise:

[zako85]

Oleksandr Muzychko, the scandalous activist of Ukraine's radical "Right Sector" group from some of the youtube videos above, got killed a few days under strange circumstances. He was killed in a cafe/restaurant shortly after a swat team showed up on the premisses. No one knows exactly what happened. Was this a hit or did he resist the arrest? The Interior Ministry does not deny that the cops were there to arrest Muzychko. Everyone knows that Muzychko always moved armed and possibly with bodyguards, so being killed when resisting an arrest seems plausible to me, but the leader of the Right Sector thinks it was a hit.

http://rt.com/news/yarosh-nationalis...n-killing-157/

[Roamy]

Hey - What I want to know is how many countries are the Euros going to let Russia take?? Looking at the map they could have a hell of a payday coming. I am very glad we are on the sidelines for this one and hopefully we will stay there.

[steveaki13]

So instead of Russia packing up all of its military equipment after gaining Crimea, it still sits just over the border from Ukraine in waiting.

Now East Ukraine is being overtaken by more Pro Russian forces. I bet it will just happen that Russia try and liberate the east of Ukraine.

Only because they are Russian people who want to be part of the home country again of course.

They are saying on the News that Russia has said it has no plans to get involved. Not really much chance anyone will believe them after whats happened.

Russia are looking for more land by the looks of it.

[A FONDO]

Not really much chance anyone will believe them after whats happened.

What has happened?