The way I see it, it is 50-50 now. After the 2017 season, I have been thinking that Hamilton is a more balanced and well-rounded driver, and with the superior Mercedes car he should certainly win. But at the rate his team keeps making strategy mistakes, or his car fails, or he makes bad starts.. or just because of bad luck, I think Vettel has a very good, not some kind of an outside or theoretical, chance of winning.