I think Ogier will go to Hyundai for 5 reasons:

1) They are a real manufacturers factory team (only Citroen can say the same) with full support from headquarters and are not afraid to invest money in WRC (Citroen can't say the same).
2) Hyundai is maybe the strongest car around at the moment (Fiesta is very good thoug).
3) They are based in Alzenau, they have a philosophy and an attitude similar to VW...
4) I don't think the actual lineup of drivers is an issue, not even contracts are, he is the best. If you want to win championship you have to hire him. And Hyundai is there to win championships, not to think of contracts...
5) The only reason he will not go there is a full come back of Ford. But we don't know if they will and if they will, we don't know how...