Preview of F1 2016

[jens]

I can see Verstappen finishing 9th-11th in the WDC in 2016. I think the top 8 may be pretty much set between Mercedes, Ferrari, Red Bull and Williams, with Alonso, Force India and Verstappen next up in some order depending on things.

Actually I can see the Red Bull and Williams drivers being threatened by the ALO, VES, FI group in WDC standings. Recall 2014, when it took Massa most of the season to actually overtake Hülkenberg in the championship standings. Kvyat could be somewhat vulnerable too - this year he has had better reliability than Ricciardo (or should I say the gap between them in terms of performance is bigger than points suggest), next year could be the other way around.

Of course the most stunning scenario is a repeat of 2008 - with Toro Rosso-Ferrari going better than the Red Bull-Renault and Verstappen indeed doing a "Vettel season".

Lots of possibilities in the air!

[truefan72]

LOL RBR & Horner doing a Uturn?
http://www.espn.co.uk/f1/story/_/id/...-red-bull-2016
that still is the most logical choice,

From the comments section that said it better than i could:
Faizal Azlan · Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
"First redbull spit into renault face publicly saying some very unprofessional things, then red bull tried to get engines from other suppliers but insist on same spec engines to the factory team which obviously Ferrari and Merc will say hell no, then they tried Honda which looking at how they treated Renault why would they risk that kind of media attention... Then they threatened to quit the sport... Even holding the sport at ransom... No one cared... Now asking Renault for engines again and they won't be a factory team but a customer team lol.... Stupidity at its finest"

[AndyL]

I wonder if Renault will try to saddle Red Bull with year-old engines Few would blame them.

[rjbetty]

I wonder if Renault will try to saddle Red Bull with year-old engines Few would blame them.

I'm not sure they can. Thankfully it seems that this whole year-old spec loophole will be closed from next year and all customers will have to receive (basically) the same spec. As for Manor this year, that was a special dispensation granted with agreement from other teams.

However, Christian Horner did say a while back that it's in their contract that they must be Renault's priority team...

In any case, Red Bull is clearly a team that could do with a year's supply of humble pie to go with whatever engines they get.




And on a completely different note, I just woke up from such an interesting dream about next year's Australian GP and wanted to share cos it was so good. I didn't watch any but somehow saw the qualifying results on the old teletext. Although it was no surprise who was on the front row, Hamilton, but only a little ahead of Rosberg, there was nevertheless a feeling of things definitely being closer with other teams over the season - a real 2012 feel with lots of teams able to have good days (I wish!)

I definitely remember McLaren looking much improved with Button starting 6th or 7th, and Maldonado's Renault was having a very good day up there somewhere. But the real thing that stood out was Romain Grosjean for Haas, qualifying a superb 4th on debut! Though the feeling was that would be an above average result for them, they were definitely going to be right in the midfield mix over the season.

Sadly, I've never had an F1 dream where anything remotely resembles what happens in real life, so...

[jens]

Sadly, I've never had an F1 dream where anything remotely resembles what happens in real life, so...

Well yeah, lol.

It is a very vague memory by now, but the closest to "real life" dream I saw was Michael Schumacher securing the 2002 championship - a dream, which I believe I saw before the French GP that year. The difference was that in my dream he passed Olivier Panis, who was having a surprisingly good race in a BAR, to take the win (and WDC).

[jens]

Thought I’d try to make a more detailed preview, this time on a team-by-team basis.

Mercedes - they are the grand favourites yet again (especially in the relatively frozen regs era), but to put it this way - I think their advantage has “peaked”. It is often interesting to look at team performance trajectories throughout years and it usually includes rise, peak and downfall. The peak of McLaren-H was in 1988, Williams in 1992, Ferrari Team MS in 2002, Red Bull perhaps 2013. Mercedes is not going to get beaten over a season, but their advantage is hardly going to get bigger in the new regs era and perhaps tyres can surprise them on occasion.
Verdict - to win both WDC/WCC again

Ferrari - I will cheer heavily for them and they have been one of the few good stories this year. But overcoming Mercedes will be a bit too much of a task, and Vettel can stay in contention only with a bit of luck on his side, like he currently sits ahead of Rosberg. I think during 2016 Ferrari management will put all their focus on 2017, like they did in mid-2013, or BMW did in 2008. The signing of James Allison has had a good effect on Ferrari, but not enough to (yet?) overhaul the completeness of Mercedes.
Verdict - unless we see a big surprise in PU developments over winter, should be a safe bet for P2.

Williams - it is hard to make up my mind on them, because they have been sort of in a no-mans-land between the big teams and struggling middlers (FI, Lot, etc). Which way will they move? I would not be surprised though if the midfield group (incl FI) can threaten them more. Their struggles in the wet and on street circuits does not instill confidence in the ‘completeness’ of their chassis design team. I would not be surprised if it is Williams’ turn to have a bit of a slowish start into the season, like RBR had this year. However, lack of competition in current F1 and access to the best PU on the grid should continually see Williams feature up in good positions.
Verdict - unlikely to theaten Merc’ supremacy, should have a good shot at finishing in at least top 4.

Red Bull - it is a bit hard to discuss them, when everything is so unclear, but let’s concentrate on practical things that we more or less know, EVEN if Red Bull pulls out completely! In the post-Newey era they don’t have class-leading chassis, though they still have potential to have a top 3 one. Whatever happens on the PU front, they are unlikely to gain a class-leading engine, be it a year-old Ferrari or Renault. Also they have an excellent talent in Dan Ricciardo to deliver results. Based on these criterias RBR should still be at least a strong midfielder, but unlikely to have the ability to finish above P3. The owner, billionaire Dietrich Mateschitz is a pragmatic man and deep down he probably knows that Red Bull is doomed in these new regs era, and that’s why he is seriously considering to pull the team out, because he doesn’t see a point in being a midfielder.
Verdict - in whatever disguise the team continues, they should be at least a strong midfielder, unless the completely pull out without selling the team.

Force India - one of the most consistent teams throughout years, always delivering minor points in most races. There is no reason, why this should not continue. Sure enough, they do not design great chassis, but they have been very professional within their limited means. Also continued access to the best PU means they hold strong cards in any midfield battles. FI has a good driver line-up to score them good points also next year. While it is unclear, what happens to Red Bull, their chief rival Lotus/Renault gets an inferior engine and drops backwards in competition, while F.I faces the threat of improved performance by McLaren, and another challenge from Toro Rosso.
Verdict - unless they financially completely collapse, should have a good shot at finishing in top 6 in WCC yet again.

Lotus/Renault - after the 2013 collapse the team was severely hit by lack of finances. In terms of chassis design quality this “hit” has not been dealt with so far and the first and foremost task of the team is to secure the future on the sponsorship/investment front. Whatever the Renault ownership looks like, it seems obvious 2016 can only be a “build-up” year, much like 2001 was for Benetton/Renault after an ownership change. Renault perhaps can make a more competitive PU than this year, but unlikely to match the very best. Also having Maldonado in their driver line-up reduces the chances of scoring points - unless he accidentally wins a race.
Verdict - needs to secure immediate future and stability before thinking long-term, 2016 is an interim year.

Toro Rosso - in the wake of general Red Bull mess their future is unclear. However, they have managed to develop themselves into plucky underdogs and sure enough, I am a small admirer of TD James Key, who also made Sauber look like a really good team. It is hard to expect STR to get even better than that within their limited means, so they must be performing pretty close to the peak on the chassis front, but they should have momentum to produce a good one next year too. With a potential bright talent especially in Verstappen to deliver them results, even a year-old Ferrari PU or a Renault PU could see them delivering at least some impressive performances.
Verdict - on the political and engine front lots of unclarity, but situation is promising in other criterias. If they get a good solution in critical matters, could be a strong midfielder next year.

Sauber - generally I believe there is no reason, why Sauber should not be capable of designing at least as good chassis as, say, Force India. But where they lose out is having an inferior PU, and also two paydrivers. Though Nasr will be in his second season next year, so that will help at least a little bit. They had a horrific 2014, but retrospectively a lot of it was down to PU. So perhaps they can avoid it this time around.
Verdict - can put in some eye-catching performance, but overall hard to see them above P8 in WCC.

McLaren - it is hard to be optimistic about McLaren, because throughout years they have proven very convincingly that they simply do not deliver. However, there are at least some positive signs. The chassis department, led by Prodromou, may finally be on the upside - and I believe close co-operation with Honda helps the chassis as well. So that they do not need to “adapt” to other engine, but can develop just as they like. There is less clarity about Honda - they are in such a deep trouble they are unlikely to match Mercedes or Ferrari next year, but they could have potential to move ahead of Renault.
Verdict - has potential to be a competitive midfielder, heavily dependent on what Honda can do with the PU over winter.

Haas - F1 experience throughout years has proven very convincingly that it is better to be cautious than opportunistic in predicting good things for a newcomer. F1 is not like other series (WEC, WRC), where a big manufacturer can pump in lots of money and basically be at the front immediately. If Dallara can be within 3 seconds of pace-setting chassis, I’ll say it is well-done.
Verdict - should have a decent shot at toppling Manor, but points will be hard to come by.

Manor - getting Mercedes engines and by the looks of it potentially some general Mercedes investment (Wehrlein as one of their drivers), Manor could face the most secure financial future they have had for a while. However, in terms of infrastructure, etc criterias they are well behind all established teams. However, what co-operation Mercedes could do is to develop Manor into a somewhat respectable backmarker as opposed to “embarrassingly-off-the-pace” backmarker, which they are now.
Verdict - at the back, but with a brigther future than a year ago.

Disclaimer - all guesses are subject to getting proven wrong. There are various variables in play and in all honesty I haven’t played with all of them a lot. One of these is chassis design quality, which often is very hard to predict and you need to know all the key personnel movements well. Retrospectively I still remember 2013, when McLaren’s completely average performance came out of the blue. Of course during 2012 technical chief Lowe left, but everyone was concentrated on Hamilton’s move and I didn’t pay sufficient attention to the Lowe factor.

With regards to 2016 I could ever-so-slightly play with some ideas - like McLaren designing a top 3 chassis again, or Williams dropping backwards. So it would be a bit of a turnaround, because as we remember - in 2014 Williams was clearly ahead of McLaren with the same PU. But the game of F1 is in constant change.

[AndyL]

Haas - F1 experience throughout years has proven very convincingly that it is better to be cautious than opportunistic in predicting good things for a newcomer. F1 is not like other series (WEC, WRC), where a big manufacturer can pump in lots of money and basically be at the front immediately. If Dallara can be within 3 seconds of pace-setting chassis, I’ll say it is well-done.
Verdict - should have a decent shot at toppling Manor, but points will be hard to come by.

The Dallara element is the one thing that concerns me about the Haas effort. While Dallara has a long and illustrious racing history, making chassis for one-make or de-facto one-make series is a very different proposition to the fierce competition of F1. I expect their car will either start out very overweight, or will have severe difficulty passing the FIA crash tests (which get even tougher next year).

[rjbetty]

Well yeah, lol.

It is a very vague memory by now, but the closest to "real life" dream I saw was Michael Schumacher securing the 2002 championship - a dream, which I believe I saw before the French GP that year. The difference was that in my dream he passed Olivier Panis, who was having a surprisingly good race in a BAR, to take the win (and WDC).

I have had some weird dreams, including one with an amazing 30 car field on a track that looked like a cross between Melbourne and Suzuka. It was only when I tried to analyse it after waking up that I realised there were actually 2 Massas in the field.

In the summer of 1999 I had one about the upcoming Malaysian Grand Prix where in a crazy race Pedro Diniz finished 2nd. Then one when Damon Hill won his swansong race in Japan. Then quite a good one before the 2012 season started where in a mixed weather Turkish GP Schumacher ran 3rd, but was overhauled by Massa by the end but they still got a very good 3rd and 4th. Only to realise there was no Turkish GP that year.

Needless to say, none have come true even remotely.

As for your dream Jens, not bad at all since that's pretty much how it happened except with Kimi instead of Panis.


As for predictions, how about this great one I made: After qualifying for the San Marino GP in 1999, I called out a top 6 of M.Schumacher (grid 3rd), Coulthard (2nd), Hakkinen (1st), Hill (8th) Fisichella (16th!) and Alesi (13th). After much wrangling I changed 3rd place to Barrichello (grid 6th).

Those with great memories or a glance at wiki will see that is the exact top 6 of that race! The only time I've ever managed it - I wish pickems was around then.

Around that time, I also had Eddie Irvine winning the German GP closely followed by the next 2 cars. As it happened, Salo and Frentzen did exactly that. Since then I broke my crystal ball and never did manage to fix it.

[jens]

I have had some weird dreams, including one with an amazing 30 car field on a track that looked like a cross between Melbourne and Suzuka. It was only when I tried to analyse it after waking up that I realised there were actually 2 Massas in the field.

My weirdest F1 dream was about 10 years ago, when it featured a 40-car-field (!!), including lots of Jordan teams (a lot of the field was yellow, hard to tell how much LOL) and there were 3-4 restarts, and in each race start the whole field went crazy and basically immediately crashed into each other. In the end the race was cancelled, because everyone had gone crazy and it was impossible to hold a race!

[jens]

Rjbetty seems to have disappeared for a while, but waiting for another Grand Prix 2 season then. To find out, whose turn is it to have unprecedented amount of unluck this time!