Suddenly and Surprisingly Strong Seasons (Drivers)

[rjbetty]

Yeah I know I was always taken aback by Katayama in that game. He was around 6th best driver ahead of Hakkinen!

I think with JV in 1999 he did have some offs as well, so while I think he was a bit quicker than Frentzen, I don't think he put together as good a season.

Frentzen at Sauber is very curious. Drivers usually start off slowly as a rookie while they have to understand everything, then as they do they get quicker and quicker each year, but it looks to me like Frentzen started off very well. I can't figure it out. He outqualified his highly-rated team mate Wendlinger 3-0 in his first 3 races! This is also what I couldn't understand. I am a big fan of Wendlinger but it seemed to me he didn't look that good against Frentzen being outqualified like that. I never watched the season so I don't have context. However in races, Wendlinger looked better, coming 4th at that Imola race with Frentzen 7th. HHF also saw off de Cesaris and JJ Lehto easily, only being outqualified once all year and none at all the next year.

As for the others, I love trying to figure out the form, something I'm fascinated by. It seems to me that though there are fluctuations in form, there seems to be a 'general' level the drivers perform at. Team-mate comparisons are helpful, though can't be trusted blindly. I mean I don't think many people really thought the Vettel of 2013 is really about 0.3sec slower than Ricciardo.

Well if I take say 1999, how about this:

1999 drivers

FERRARI
1.M.Schumacher - obviously at the top
2.Irvine - His average against Michael in qualifying was +0.54s However this is muddied by Michael missing races, but that figure looks about right, given that in 1996 it was about 0.9s I think, then +0.82 in 1997 and +0.66 in 1998.

It's definitely guesswork when you start adding in other teams since you can't know for sure the car performance. I mean could two drivers be doing a terrible job in a rocketship and looking good, or could they be great drivers flattering a bucket and looking the same? We can't tell, but in these cases, there tends to be a general feeling amongst the paddock which is usually close to the truth.

Coulthard had a bad 1999, not liking the grooved tyres and getting the no.2 treatment (David spoke of the preferential treatment Mika got after leaving McLaren). As I remember, he qualified +0.374s behind Hakkinen. Now it was regarded that Irvine had done a slightly better job in 1999. There was even talk of McLaren signing him, and Ron Dennis said he felt Irvine was/did better than DC, but not by enough to risk signing him. I feel that in 1999 this was about right and I would put it roughly

1.M.Schumacher
2.Irvine +0.540
3.Coulthard +0.574

This would put Hakkinen 0.2 behind Michael. How do we know they weren't equal? I don't, but I have always felt they weren't, not as much as people said. I think if Hakk and MS had been teammates Mika would have done very well, but also been shown up whenever something wasn't perfect for him. I mean who would have thought Kimi would have been shown up as he has been recently? (I did actually, but even I didn't think the gap would be so big).

If they were both equal, that would make the first 4

1.M.Schumacher
2.Hakkinen +0.000
3.Coulthard +0.374
4.Irvine +0.540

Now was Coulthard really that much quicker than Irvine, in theoretical equal cars, in 1999? I'm not sure, so while it is basically guessing, I feel my version is closer to the truth.



Now for Williams, these days I put Ralf at about +0.4sec off Michael in 1999. I don't know where I get that figure from actually now I think about it. He was just over half a second quicker than Zanardi. I make the top 4 teams drivers as this, taking their qualifying times

1.M.Schumacher
2.Hakkinen +0.2
3.R.Schumacher +0.4
4.Frentzen +0.5
5.Irvine +0.54
6.Coulthard +0.574
7.Zanardi +0.91
8.Hill +1.17

Now I'm doing this, I'm suddenly having a sort of crisis of doubt and can't remember how I came up with these! I just woke up though so maybe it will come to me

Anyway here's the rest based on qualifying

1.M.Schumacher
2.Hakkinen +0.2
3.R.Schumacher +0.4
3.Barrichello +0.4
3.Villeneuve +0.4 These 3 too close to call
6.Frentzen +0.5
7.Irvine +0.54 Well I know that one for a fact
8.Coulthard +0.57
9.Trulli +0.6
10.Fisichella +0.6
11.Wurz +0.78
12.Alesi +0.80 (curiously I seem to make Alesi out around this same level almost every season... o.o)
13.Zanardi +0.91 (Zanardi did actually outqualify Ralf 5 times, it was in races he totally sucked)
14.Panis +0.93?
(=14.Salo - I'd put him exactly around Panis I think. Compare that to what I've given to Irvine and Diniz and does it seem right?)
15.Herbert +1.04
15.Takagi +1.04
17.de la Rosa +1.1
18.Hill +1.17
19.Diniz +1.2
20.Zonta +1.3
21.Badoer +1.6
22.Gené +2.0


Now looking at that I myself am surprised at Zanardi, but he really wasn't all that bad in qualifying, and what we do know for a fact is that he averaged just over 0.5sec off Ralf over 1999 in qual. So to put him lower I'd have to put Ralf lower too. It was widely regarded that Ralf was "scintillating" in 1999, some suspecting he did better than even Frentzen. Remember that the previous season he had outqualified Damon Hill 10-6 and was only defeated by Fisichella 10-7 before that. He also did compare well with Montoya, so to put him a little ahead of Frentzen for speed, and at least equal with the more experienced Barrichello and Villeneuve seems about right.

I am also surprised at Panis since back then I'd have rated him lower. He did look invisible in 1999, and 1998 in particular. In hindsight I think it was more the car though Olivier wasn't on great form for most of that time. We can know he was +0.322s slower than Trulli (not including France) so if I put him lower, I would have to put Trulli lower. Trulli did peter out a little at the end of 1999 having fallen out with Alain Prost, but thru the season he was a fixture around the top 10 and drove very well I felt.

On the other hand this could all be junk though (it is qualifying only as well).




EDIT: Have you ever seen this? This guy goes way ahead of me. Pretty much what I just tried to do, but done properly.

http://grandprixratings.blogspot.co.uk/


You know the rest of you can speak up too. Don't leave it all to Jens, would love to hear what you think.