I had previously thought 2016 wouldn't see much change, and it would be a boring silly season. But having thought about it there could be plenty of scope for things to look a lot different next year.

We have the threat of Red Bull leaving
Senior people like Bernie seem to think this is serious. If it happened it would make the competitive order a lot different, plus cause big chain reactions with drivers etc. Somehow I can't quite see this crazy scenario quite coming to pass, but stranger things have happened.

Renault re-buying Lotus:
Tbh the thought of Renault plunging in a huge budget similar to Ferrari, Red Bull and Mercedes just doesn't ring true to me. I think Jens said it very well when he said it would be more like a 2010 level of commitment, sort of semi-works. It would secure Enstone's immediate future and they would be in a better place than they are now, but I can't see how wins and titles can be anywhere on the horizon in the near-future.

The only hope is that Renault have been holding back on their engine and have good improvements planned. But it was said last year that Renault would be better for 2015... If the engine is still as far off the pace, I can't see them finishing higher than 9th, or 7th if they bag a couple of lucky results to be ahead of Sauber, and McLaren still struggle. In the worst case, they could even fall behind Haas.

Haas
Speaking of whom, Haas could possibly be ready to score a fair few points if their extra preparation pays off. I think back to Sauber in 2003, who gained a full Ferrari engine and gearbox etc combo, with people such as f1-rejects (I miss them) suggesting they could fight with the big boys. It didn't happen as their aero was mediocre (this was pre-factory upgrade).

The only thing that could really hold Haas back is Dallara. They designed the HRT's, but this was with much less resources? Maybe they can do a better job now but I still don't rate them. Reynard had a fantastic pedigree but sucked at F1 with BAR.

McLaren-Honda
Thinking about the engine token rules, my understanding is they decrease every year, thus the scope for engine improvement shrinks continuously. It seems then that the really big improvements simply HAVE to be made next year, or else. Their only hope then would be for a revamp in token rules (could happen) or else they're stuffed till 2020 - by which time Alonso will be 38 and Button will be 40!!

It looks then, that they simply MUST do a Ferrari in 2016 - a decent moderate improvement simply will not do.




Team Finances and Testing
Money woes caused Force India to have to miss much of pre-season testing this year, the same happening to Lotus in 2014 IIRC. This severely hampered their early season. Thing I have to ask is, why should it be any different next year?