Silly Season speculation

[rjbetty]

I had previously thought 2016 wouldn't see much change, and it would be a boring silly season. But having thought about it there could be plenty of scope for things to look a lot different next year.

We have the threat of Red Bull leaving
Senior people like Bernie seem to think this is serious. If it happened it would make the competitive order a lot different, plus cause big chain reactions with drivers etc. Somehow I can't quite see this crazy scenario quite coming to pass, but stranger things have happened.

Renault re-buying Lotus:
Tbh the thought of Renault plunging in a huge budget similar to Ferrari, Red Bull and Mercedes just doesn't ring true to me. I think Jens said it very well when he said it would be more like a 2010 level of commitment, sort of semi-works. It would secure Enstone's immediate future and they would be in a better place than they are now, but I can't see how wins and titles can be anywhere on the horizon in the near-future.

The only hope is that Renault have been holding back on their engine and have good improvements planned. But it was said last year that Renault would be better for 2015... If the engine is still as far off the pace, I can't see them finishing higher than 9th, or 7th if they bag a couple of lucky results to be ahead of Sauber, and McLaren still struggle. In the worst case, they could even fall behind Haas.

Haas
Speaking of whom, Haas could possibly be ready to score a fair few points if their extra preparation pays off. I think back to Sauber in 2003, who gained a full Ferrari engine and gearbox etc combo, with people such as f1-rejects (I miss them) suggesting they could fight with the big boys. It didn't happen as their aero was mediocre (this was pre-factory upgrade).

The only thing that could really hold Haas back is Dallara. They designed the HRT's, but this was with much less resources? Maybe they can do a better job now but I still don't rate them. Reynard had a fantastic pedigree but sucked at F1 with BAR.

McLaren-Honda
Thinking about the engine token rules, my understanding is they decrease every year, thus the scope for engine improvement shrinks continuously. It seems then that the really big improvements simply HAVE to be made next year, or else. Their only hope then would be for a revamp in token rules (could happen) or else they're stuffed till 2020 - by which time Alonso will be 38 and Button will be 40!!

It looks then, that they simply MUST do a Ferrari in 2016 - a decent moderate improvement simply will not do.




Team Finances and Testing
Money woes caused Force India to have to miss much of pre-season testing this year, the same happening to Lotus in 2014 IIRC. This severely hampered their early season. Thing I have to ask is, why should it be any different next year?

[AndyL]

Thinking about the engine token rules, my understanding is they decrease every year, thus the scope for engine improvement shrinks continuously. It seems then that the really big improvements simply HAVE to be made next year, or else. Their only hope then would be for a revamp in token rules (could happen) or else they're stuffed till 2020 - by which time Alonso will be 38 and Button will be 40!!

Yes the tokens go as follows (it was 32 for this year):
2016: 25
2017: 20
2018: 15
2019: 3
2020: 3
All unchanged in the draft 2016 regs, but from some of the interviews at Suzuka it sounds like this is still under discussion.

There are some additional items that are frozen for next year - mainly cylinder bore position and dimensions, and items to do with valve drive (though not the valves themselves). Frozen items are the same again for 2017, then for 2018 a few new items are frozen: more valve elements, crankshaft and oil pumps. The big change comes in 2019 when everything is completely frozen except turbo inlet, the engine electrical system and the ERS wiring loom.

It seems like Honda's main problem is in the hybrid systems. They could change the entire turbo including inlet and outlet manifolds, the MGU-H, MGU-K, ERS electronics and cooling, and the energy store for 22 points.

[jens]

Some of you are so busy writing stuff up I am struggling to keep up with you guys.

There is one thing I recommend though - start a new 2016 prediction thread!

[Rollo]

http://www.lotusf1team.com/news-archive/move-on-up/
Move On Up!
Jolyon Palmer announced as race driver for 2016


Speculation: Lotus will be bought by Renault and the Black Maldonado team will become the Yellow Maldonado team.

Task: I've spilled speculation all over the floor - someone get a mop and bucket.

[rjbetty]

http://www.lotusf1team.com/news-archive/move-on-up/
Move On Up!
Jolyon Palmer announced as race driver for 2016


Speculation: Lotus will be bought by Renault and the Black Maldonado team will become the Yellow Maldonado team.

Task: I've spilled speculation all over the floor - someone get a mop and bucket.

Wow flippin 'eck I weren't expecting that. While I'm happy enough, I will be very disappointed that Kevin Magnussen or Jean-Eric Vergne will have been passed over for that seat - I think they are more deserving...

Good, I think we need a good bit of yellow - a great chance for an interesting livery. However, I bet it will look pants like most liveries these days rather than something cool like 15-20yrs ago. Come on Renault, you have a chance to bring back the Forti yellow to the grid!



EDIT: Autosport are reporting Palmer's confirmation of a race seat too, so seems legit. TBH I feel a bit disappointed someone else didn't get it but oh well, I will support him and hope he does well. As a rookie he will also prove more reachable for Haas and Manor, slightly increasing their hope of some points.

[Rollo]

I would like to see something like this:


I could very well be wrong but I think that the singing of Jolyon Palmer shows that they must've secured some sort of funding for next year and the only real way i see that happening is if Renault bought them

[EightGear]

They secured funds BY signing Palmer most probably...

[Duncan]

http://www.lotusf1team.com/news-archive/move-on-up/
Move On Up!
Jolyon Palmer announced as race driver for 2016


Speculation: Lotus will be bought by Renault and the Black Maldonado team will become the Yellow Maldonado team.

Task: I've spilled speculation all over the floor - someone get a mop and bucket.

Great news - thanks for sharing. It seems like there are many talented drivers chasing too few seats these days.

[jens]

Talent-wise Palmer is pretty much in the Maldonado-range (well, not speaking about crashes!). He hanged around forever in GP2 and finally won the series by beating everyone with experience.

So in my book 2016 Renault/Lotus driver line-up is pretty much up there or should I say down there with Sauber, so considering the team is in a state of re-building anyway, they don't have a driver to wring the speed out of the machinery either.

[AndyL]

EDIT: Autosport are reporting Palmer's confirmation of a race seat too, so seems legit.

I'm not sure I'd rate Autosport any more "legit" than the official announcement on the team's own web site, but FWIW Sky have reported it too and interviewed Jolyon Palmer about it, so yes it definitely seems legit

One good thing about it is that a GP2 champion has been able to graduate to F1 again. The last few years there seems to have been a bit of a roadblock of pay drivers preventing drivers who've "qualified" through the top feeder series from finding F1 seats.