I wouldn't be so sure that Sirmacis can win ERC so easily. Being fast on gravel is not enough and on tarmac he's probably quite a lot slower than Lukyanuk and Kajto.
Yes, he was slower on tarmac, but he would have only needed 38 more points across two rounds to win the title this year, so it is quite possible. Plus of course he will only get better on tarmac.
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