My Past F1 Predictions

[jens]

2004

This was one of the first times I can remember I really did a proper prediction. In an Excel-table, imagining through all races. And I did it before winter tests, before any guidelines. Now I can't remember the exact rankings let alone exact points, but I remember some general form-lines. IIRC it saw Räikkönen winning the championship from M.Schumacher.

Let's remember the hype around McLaren. All through 2003 they were developing their new revolutionary car MP4/18, which indeed looked revolutionary. It was said it was the first car, which was properly built for the demands of Michelin tyres, while the previous car was just "adapted" for it. There was a lot of hype around and the looks helped as the car seemed like one from the future. I thought if they could compete for the title in 2003 even with the old "updated" car, what can they do with the new one.

Now, I didn't expect a dominant season, but a close fight for the title. In which McLaren/Räikkönen prevailed in the end. Ferrari/M.Schumacher were its usual solid self, but I felt 2003 indicated their era was coming to an end. Still good, but not enough to win in the end. With Bridgestone tyres still lagging behind.

Williams was a bit of a mystery. On one hand they had been very fast in 2003, then again they seemed to have peaked. I thought if they couldn't deliver titles even with what seemed to be the fastest car on many circuits and by far the best tyres and also the best engine, what else do they want? I started losing belief in their drivers. I also thought that as Montoya had already announced his switch to McLaren, he viewed them as a better long-term prospect. So while expected Williams to be fast, "something" was missing to make their challenge complete.

Then the big story, the Toyota. In my prediction they were the breakthrough team and da Matta the breakthrough driver. Let's remember real 2004. The breakthrough driver was Button with lots of podiums. But in my prediction it was da Matta, who got a few podiums and I don't remember if a win was among them too. Panis had a solid season, but was already old and past his prime and I thought would be outshone by the impressive Brazilian. Thought Toyota would now properly deliver on the promise with Gascoyne on board. It is also worth recalling that in late 2003 Toyota actually qualified 3rd in both USA (Panis) and Japan (da Matta) and even though they were probably a bit short on fuel while achieving this, it reinforced my view that the team was about to come really good.

Interestingly I didn't have high expectations on Renault and I was regularly underrating the Enstone-based team, a miscalculation I recognized only in late 2005 season! In 2003 there were rumours they had the worst engine and also lost chief designer Gascoyne. So it felt like 2003 was a bit of a "punching above their weight" season. So now predicted them to be 5th best team.

Then somewhere behind I think was BAR. Button with his usual solid driving, but without podiums to back it up. Sato getting only a few points. Sauber with Fisichella stronger than 2003, battling with BAR. Massa also getting points on board. Jaguar sometimes impressing in qualifyings, but overall in midfield with Webber. Perhaps relatively a bit worse off than 2003, behind BAR and Sauber. And then Jordan and Minardi at the back.

Overall...
In 2003 I had seen teams being very close. Top3 going for the title, Renault going well. Toyota, BAR, Jaguar all showing speed from time-to-time too. This made me think we had entered a new era. The era of close competition. With lots of big-budgeted factory teams. So I thought 2004 was going to be close again. Jaguar was "good", but because the competition was close I would have had them only 8th in the constructors. Had I predicted qualifying gaps (I didn't) I think they would have all been pretty close.

All in all... One of my "shittiest" predictions of all times. Yeah, but while compiling this, it all made so much sense. Maybe in alternative universe would have worked.