2014 F1 season prediction

[steveaki13]

Certainly looks like those who do finish will be working hard for it. I still think its a bit up in the air as to what will happen.

[jens]

One thing is to predict, who will retire in this race, but another thing is to take a long-term view on the season and I have to say Red Bull's chances have improved massively. Even if they double DNF tomorrow, they have shown they have got speed and once they iron out issues they can be right up there again.

In 2009 RBR got double DNF in Australia, yet went to fight for the title later on.
In 2010 Vettel had only 12 pts after two races, Webber had 6, yet they went on to win titles.

I think among the three top teams (MB, RBR, Fer) Ferrari is the one, who has currently most to think about. Reliability may once again be a saving grace for them and save them some good points - we'll find out tomorrow - but in terms of speed they are in danger of getting left behind both Mercedes and RBR. And if this happens, it is a bit of a long shot to expect that only reliability can save you, if on terms of pure pace you barely make the podium.

[steveaki13]

Spot on Jens.

Ferrari seem to be in their usual trap, looking like being consistent but not very fast.

[jens]

Red Bull - Renault
I believe the hopes that Red Bull will be toppled by Mercedes have at least some wishful thinking involved, sadly. It's true that a new season can make all the difference, but Red Bull are now the best drilled team. I say do not be fooled into thinking they will be anywhere other than right up there. I would say at worst, they will be a smidgen off Mercedes.

Mercedes
Big things are expected of the former BAR team this year. They have long been built up as the favourites, and we have been hearing things like their engine having a 100bhp advantage. There is a lot of hype going on here.

But my instinct tells me that though Mercedes will duly enjoy their best season yet, and seem set to at least consolidate their standing as the 2nd best team, there is still more hype than substance. I don't see them utterly dominating and Red Bull struggling. But they certainly have their best chance ever of major success.

Ferrari
Another season, another set of hopes for the titles. This is beginning to look like the late 90's all over again. To be blunt, why are things going to be different this time? Do not think that just because the ruies have changed and everyone starts from zero, that this in itself means that Ferrari will suddenly be transformed. There is no real reason to think so. In fact, the team don't seem as good as Red Bull, so if anything, major regulation changes are prime conditions for the scud to lose yet more ground.

This may seem rather downbeat, but I have spent too many years stoking up high hopes during the pre-season only to see them dashed come the racing proper, as cold hard reality hits. Sadly, it seems there is no magic in F1. Alonso and Raikkonen could find themselves consigned to 4th and 5th places this season with not too many podiums.

Rjbetty. I think based on the first race of the season you have guessed pretty well. You mentioned you learnt lessons from the mistakes of former predictions and you have done that well.

You are close-to-right about „at worst RBR being a smidgen off Mercedes“. I think Mercedes actually has quite a sizable advantage over RBR, which we didn't see properly, but considering all the winter testing issues Red Bull has indeed done very well to be up there.

Mercedes is the best right now, but let's see, how does in-season development pan out and you also may have a point about their drivers taking points off each other. Mercedes has great pace, but like reliability issues with Hamilton showed, they have problems in maximizing their potential. That's why they may not dominate the season.

And you were right to be concerned about Ferrari and avoid involving „wishing thinking“ into seeing them emerging as the team to beat.

[rjbetty]

Dragging up an old chestnut:


So into the 4th race, how are the pre-season predictions shaping up now?


Incredibly, I am finding many similarities between the season and the simulated season I ran on Grand Prix 2! (It's here in this thread)

I had Red Bull only slightly off Mercedes (which I think they would be if there wasn't such a power deficiency in the Renault) I had Renault only 30bhp off in GP2. The big surprise in my season was the great initial form of Daniel Ricciardo, whereas Seb seemed slightly weak compared to his usual self. Incredibly, this is how it has turned out! I had Ricciardo consistently qualifying in the top few positions and getting strong podiums while Seb was more up and down and seemed to suffer more problems.


Mercedes are pretty much as expected, though on second thoughts, far ahead. They seem to have pace in hand. In my season, they were still very strong, though not totally dominant, but lost the title through so much misfortune, losing big results. In reality, they are getting the results, only failing Lewis in Melbourne.


As for Ferrari, well I had them 0.7 off but able to benefit thru reliability. They have turned out much worse.


In my Australia season, Kevin Magnussen starred in qualifying as he did in real life, while Jenson was 11th, as he was in real life! Ricciardo and Hamilton were on the front row as in real life. Bottas and Hulkenberg were around 7th to 8th with Perez 16th and Kobayashi doing well. Kobayashi had a significant turn 1 crash in Melbourne, as in real life! Vergne and Kvyat ran in the top 10 early on, as in real life (though Daniil retired in the game).


In my season, I had McLaren 4th best, but still quite a way from the top, though improved on the miserable 2013. Kevin Magnussen actually outscored Button in the end due to double points and scoring a shock win at Spa due to attrition.

The only thing I got really wrong was Ferrari being stronger in the game, despite being 0.7sec off, and surprisingly winning both titles through reliability.

[steveaki13]

two new teams in F1 next year rj.

So the Scorpian F1 cars can be in your 2015 season prediction for real rather than ghost cars.

[Tazio]

Dragging up an old chestnut:


So into the 4th race, how are the pre-season predictions shaping up now?


Incredibly, I am finding many similarities between the season and the simulated season I ran on Grand Prix 2! (It's here in this thread)

I had Red Bull only slightly off Mercedes (which I think they would be if there wasn't such a power deficiency in the Renault) I had Renault only 30bhp off in GP2. The big surprise in my season was the great initial form of Daniel Ricciardo, whereas Seb seemed slightly weak compared to his usual self. Incredibly, this is how it has turned out! I had Ricciardo consistently qualifying in the top few positions and getting strong podiums while Seb was more up and down and seemed to suffer more problems.


Mercedes are pretty much as expected, though on second thoughts, far ahead. They seem to have pace in hand. In my season, they were still very strong, though not totally dominant, but lost the title through so much misfortune, losing big results. In reality, they are getting the results, only failing Lewis in Melbourne.


As for Ferrari, well I had them 0.7 off but able to benefit thru reliability. They have turned out much worse.


In my Australia season, Kevin Magnussen starred in qualifying as he did in real life, while Jenson was 11th, as he was in real life! Ricciardo and Hamilton were on the front row as in real life. Bottas and Hulkenberg were around 7th to 8th with Perez 16th and Kobayashi doing well. Kobayashi had a significant turn 1 crash in Melbourne, as in real life! Vergne and Kvyat ran in the top 10 early on, as in real life (though Daniil retired in the game).


In my season, I had McLaren 4th best, but still quite a way from the top, though improved on the miserable 2013. Kevin Magnussen actually outscored Button in the end due to double points and scoring a shock win at Spa due to attrition.

The only thing I got really wrong was Ferrari being stronger in the game, despite being 0.7sec off, and surprisingly winning both titles through reliability.

Don't forget our bet dukie

[jens]

I think the main pre-season miscalculation in predictions has been the engine/power unit disparity, which was very hard to foresee without any previous evidence. Should have been more bold with predicting Mercedes to be far ahead. But that's hwo things are and what I already wrote - predictions are too much based on the past season.

But I am glad I got several general developments pretty close - Mercedes champions, Williams stronger, Force India having a good season, McLaren a so-so-season, Red Bull losing dominance, Lotus dropping back, etc. Of course the reality is that the effect of all these "developments" has been stronger than predicted, which is what usually can happen with radical rule changes.

The difference is that Mercedes is far ahead, so that Red Bull and Ferrari don't get a sniff at title challenge. And Williams also even stronger than predicted. Both largely down to the PU advantage, which was greater than anticipated. Interestingly it doesn't make much of a difference to McLaren fortunes, while Force India has a good chance of battling with them all year in WCC standings.

Lotus has dropped back and shows signs of recovering, they should start collecting points soon. Didn't expect a great season from Sauber, but they are even worse than thought. Likely to get beaten by Toro Rosso in the end, who in turn is its usual "9th/10th place team in races" like they have been for many years.

Caterham/Marussia - business as usual. Reliability is already pretty good, only 2 retirements in China. So doesn't look like they have a good chance of opening point-score this year either.

Generally I feel I have managed to improve my predicting skills over the past year or two, especially what concerns general developments. Individual races can always go either way and these are very hard to foresee. But over a longer period some bigger trends can be recognized.

Drivers?

Ricciardo is giving Vettel a run for his money and although I still believe Vettel will come out on top as he is too much of a complete driver to just disappear, the points/performance gap will be closer.

Button/Magnussen situation was very hard to predict, but it looks like Button will come out on top, but again perhaps with a smaller advantage than anticipated. The performance of a rookie is always very difficult to predict. Even if you believe the driver is very talented, you never know, how well he settles in that particular environment (team/car).

Kvyat is already giving Vergne a run for his money. A bit more than I expected from the 19-year-old. Very promising driver is the young Russian, hats off.

Räikkönen is struggling. He will improve, but Alonso prevails.

Rosberg gets outraced by Hamilton, but should stay relatively close in point standings.

Maldonado is really struggling right now, I see better days for him to come. But Grosjean prevails.

Bottas and Massa is close as expected. Massa has had two unlucky races (Aus/Chn), which inflated the points gap. But I expect the two to race close to each other all year with the Finn coming out on top.

Pérez shines at times, but Hülkenberg is more consistent and comes out on top.

[rjbetty]

Don't forget our bet dukie

Oh yeeeeeah, I'd forgotten about that. I do hope the boss (Lewis, not Verstappen) can do it, but still am concerned Nico might get it by stealth. Hamilton is proving me wrong so far, but I hope he can carry on. He seems to be someone who has the odd disaster here and there, and that can be enough to cost everything. I hope Nicole also behaves herself and can consider this is an important year for Lewis.

[rjbetty]

Very good overview Jens.

The other thing I didn't mention was that I was quite conservative with reliability levels in the game. I did not have crazy races with 3 finishers, but rather I tried to be as realistic as possible, and sure enough, every race I had varied between 12-18 finishers, a sensible and realistic amount.

Amazingly, the reliability has been even better than my conservative estimates and if China is anything to go by, we are already back to 2013 levels (sigh)...

That is another thing I have gotten very wrong over the years, and am now learning from. The amount of unreliability and incidents was always more outlandish in my feelings and thoughts before the season, but during the season was not the case at all.


As for Perez v Hulkenberg, did anyone read that article on skysports, which wondered if paradoxically, Nico drives too much like a top team driver, without the "carpe diem" moments that Perez can have?

That is thought provoking, but I am thinking maybe I disagree. What is the use of Perez having just a small spattering of great races when he's comparatively mediocre the rest of the time? I also think this does a dis-service to Hulkenberg: I find it hard to see how he's merely a solid driver when he has produced moments like Monza 2013 (probably Korea too), on course to win Brazil 2012 on merit, in a Force India(!) and pole position for Williams in 2010.