2014 F1 season prediction

[Tazio]

Great post Jens, I'd just like to add that with the regulations changing from 8 to 5 engines and gearboxes having to last 6 races(without penalty), as well as all the new elements affecting the power output, reliability is going to be a huge issue. Lauda, and Allison touched on this subject in the following link.
http://www.wheels24.co.za/FormulaOne/La ... y-20140126
I think we are going to be in for a very interesting season, at least I hope.

[Malbec]

The most important thing about the Sauber is that none of the stickers on the car and neither of the drivers are Russian. It looks like that deal has died a quiet death. I think Sauber will be racing against bankruptcy this season, if they also manage to race some midfield teams we should consider that a special bonus.

As for Grosjean vs Maldonaldo, the French/Swiss will crush the Venezuelan. Grosjean has improved his approach to racing with the help of a sports psychotherapist and has shown keenness to learn from his mistakes and improve. He has done so. Maldonaldo on the other hand is never at fault, the problem is always with the other driver/his team/stewards etc. There is no willingness to accept that he is less than perfect and therefore no ability to improve.

As for Maldonaldo's ability to drive poor cars, he showed what he is capable of last year being outdriven by a rookie. Grosjean will have to plumb some depths to fall that low.

[RS]

The most important thing about the Sauber is that none of the stickers on the car and neither of the drivers are Russian. It looks like that deal has died a quiet death. I think Sauber will be racing against bankruptcy this season, if they also manage to race some midfield teams we should consider that a special bonus.

Sirotkin is a named test driver so I think there is still some Russian influence in the team.

Sauber would be up sh1t creek without the Mexicans though, almost all their larger sponsors are from there. Expect to see Medion and VDGs sponsors on the car at some point though.

[steveaki13]

I think the point about regs and reliability could well have a big influence. Turbo's were of course notoriously unreliable back in the days, but in reality these days it won't be quite as much of an issue.

I mean I remember Martin Brundle saying when he drove for Tyrell he would start 18th-22nd behind every Turbo Car and by half distance in some races was in the top 6 as the Turbo's all blew.

If that were the case this season and with only 5 engines, the last 3 races of the season would see only 1 or 2 cars running without penalties.

But as I say, these days it shouldn't be the same. That said, with more unreliability than the last few seasons, low fuel levels and a chaotic order perhaps in the first races we could see a few races with a low number of finishers.

All in all I am really looking forward to this season. Well until Seb wins in Oz by lapping the field.

[minardi]

Going to quickly get my short predictions in just before the green line goes on for the start of testing.

Mercedes
A close season between Red Bull and Mercedes, but the Silver Arrows edge both championships, with Hamilton taking his second crown… just. Hamilton and Rosberg are close all year but Rosberg gets the bad luck of the team, allowing Hamilton to be #1 in the run up to the finale.

Red Bull
As said before, very close all year between the Red Bulls and Mercedes, but Vettel's car finally gets the bad luck with the car that MW had the past few seasons, which allow Mercedes to get the edge. Ricciardo has good performances and is closer to Vettel at points than expected, but consistency/experience means Vettel still has a clear advantage over him over the season.

Ferrari
A fast car and not far off the top two, but let down by being a little down in horsepower, which in a very close season, is enough to see them in third. Alonso wins in Monaco, and spurred on by inter-team rivalry, outscores the Finn over the season. The two have some very close encounters where body work comes off, with a slanging match over the radio and post-race ensuing.

McLaren
A better car than last year, which isn't hard, but just down on the pace over the top three. They'll return to the podium this year, but not quite enough to return to the top step. Button and Magnussen quality near each other all season, with Button having the more points in the first half, but Magnussen putting in better weekend performances in the second half. They finish close together with Button just ahead, but paddock is impressed with Magnussen and hope he can build on a solid (not spectacular) first season.

Force India
Hulkenberg finally makes the right move as Sauber languish towards the back, and Lotus' troubles continue (more on that later). Although the top four are a clear top four, Force India finish in 5th thanks to a couple of podiums due to reliability and generally good drives from Perez and Hulkenberg who both shine and mix it with the McLarens at time at particular circuits. While Perez gets his mojo back at times, Hulkenberg shines brightest, and everyone is still bemused when he still doesn't get snapped up by the big four.

Williams
Williams return to the points on a more regular basis than last year (again... not hard) thanks to a consistent but not spectacular car. Massa and Bottas are close all year alternating most weekends. Massa gets a podium at some point thanks to a crazy race, and the little Brazilian couldn't look any happier.

Toro Rosso
Another season of the same for STR as they show promise at times but mostly go out slap bang in the middle of Q2, except for the odd race where they show no pace, and Kyvat goes out in Q1, then the races where they seemingly pull it out of the bag, and Kyvat squeezes into Q3. Kyvat outscores Vergne despite being up and down all year.

Lotus
Money, money, money... or lack of it dogs the Lotus boys all year. The car is unreliable and a pig to drive, and they're always playing catch up, with a B-spec car talked about but never quite emerging. Maldonado has a horror of a year running into other cars, and looks a picture of frustration and uninterest all season. Grosjean easily performs better, but struggles with the car, and his late-2013 form is forgotten, causing frustration to settle in a couple of times.

Sauber
The car struggles from Day 1, and despite topping a test session, it's a bluff and the car is slow and down on power. Sutil outperforms Guttierez all season, and picks up a few points, but a disaster of a season. Sirotkin is talked about mid-season replacing Sutil but never quite happens as the team struggle with money.

Marussia
Marussia scores two points!! A chaotic race with a large number of retirees, allow Bianchi to take a 9th place early in the season. Chilton is nowhere. The car is better than the Caterham but still off the rest of the field, but Bianchi gets something out of the car and looks impressive in the races.

Caterham
Caterham finish last again and the talk of a takeover emerges around mid-season. Kobayashi outperforms Ericsson who has a couple of good drives in his debut season, but being at the back with the Marussias, it doesn't impress as everyone's eyes are on Bianchi.

[rjbetty]

Interesting thoughts everyone, and great review minardi! But are you sure you're a rookie and not a previous user under another name?

Caterham - Renault Season Preview
Well, it's now year 5 of the 5 year plan, and though obviously wins aren't going to happen, or even being IN the midfield, the team MUST at least be within reasonable distance (maximum 1.0 sec) from the established teams this time, in order to be close enough to take advantage and get stuck in with them at least some of the time.

The bosses have been saying it's been pretty much all about 2014 for some time, even to the point of compromising their previous two(!) seasons. So with all that preparation, they simply must deliver, and at minimum beat Marussia. Failure to do even that could spell the end.

I am a bit sceptical, having been certain the team would open their points account in 2012, but quietly am hugely hopeful. If the best case scenario comes true, I don't see it that Caterham will be like 8th in the championship (still 10th whatever happens), but I do see they could mix it with Saubers, Toro Rossos, even a struggling Lotus or two, and Kobayashi could make several Q2 appearances.

I am being cautious though as I don't want to be disappointed, and will predict Kobayashi averaging about 1.0-1.5 sec behind the nearest older team car (Gutierrez or Kvyat).

In any case, I fear wherever Caterham or Marussia start the season, they will be hugely outdeveloped over the season like never before, and the gap to the front will grow to a gulf. But maybe the gap to the back established teams may not grow so much, but it seems early season, where unreliability and unpredictability is expected to be greatest, is the time when the backmarkers must capitalise.

Whether Kobayashi is the driver to do that remains to be seen. This is a guy, who the simple fact is, did scrape a single 3rd place in what was a race winning car in 2012. I still don't quite understand the hype around this guy (he's good, but maybe about 15 drivers or so are better I'd say) and why so many people seem to think he should be fast-tracked into a Ferrari AHEAD OF NICO HULKENBERG?! Really?

And we don't know how rusty he is. I don't know how professional he is. Whatever the truth was in 2012, we know he is not BETTER than Perez, the best case scenario is equal, but the truth was Sergio had at least an edge on him in every department except overtaking (and perception with fans!) - and this isn't taking account that Perez was only in his 2nd year and was further back on his development curve. I could be wrong and be missing something, but for the moment I cannot see it.

Even so, he is still a good driver. But will he be able to return and perform to his same level like Sutil did, or more like Verstappen in 2003? Hopefully, he will use his experience and apply himself well, because if not, I would say even a sophomore van der Garde would have been a better choice (as my Grand Prix 2 season showed, even though I made them equal). I hope to see some giant killing performances, but having scraped one podium to Checo's 3 in a car that should have won races - and spent much of the season being invisible, I hope he's the driver to make the best use of any rare opportunities for Caterham.

I don't know how good Marcus Ericsson is, but his record pre-GP2 looks good. A few think he underperformed in GP2, in which case he may do pretty well. Shouldn't do too badly in any case.

[minardi]

Interesting thoughts everyone, and great review minardi! But are you sure you're a rookie and not a previous user under another name?

Cheers! Haha I'm 100% sure. Been reading these boards on/off for ages, but actually got round to joining and throwing my two cents in.

[jens]

I was reading an article on Autosport.com, written by Gary Anderson.
http://www.autosport.com/news/report.php/id/112329

Suddenly I remembered something from this thread.

But there are people who know what they're talking about, and I think it's maybe learning which people's opinions to give more weight to and who's to take with a pinch of salt.

Gary Anderson seems to be a very smart guy. He was the one who, having watched the 2013 cars testing, called out the Red Bull as having "10% more downforce". He also insisted to watch out for Mercedes when I didn't have much hopes for them.

And to bring out the first pre-season impression, Gary said the following:

If you had to pick one team to be in charge of based on where it is so far, which would it be?

Red Bull. The car only did three laps, but that's about reliability and functionality and it will improve. But the RB10 looks a very logical, well-designed car.

So, rjbetty, what is your verdict? Does Gary once again know, what he is talking about?

[Malbec]

Whether Kobayashi is the driver to do that remains to be seen. This is a guy, who the simple fact is, did scrape a single 3rd place in what was a race winning car in 2012. I still don't quite understand the hype around this guy (he's good, but maybe about 15 drivers or so are better I'd say) and why so many people seem to think he should be fast-tracked into a Ferrari AHEAD OF NICO HULKENBERG?! Really?

I've read your posts on Kobayashi filled with vitriol and its clear to me why you don't rate him, you manage to dismiss the way in which he outqualified Perez pretty comprehensively, are unable to understand how Perez being on a desperate alternate tyre strategy due to failure to qualify well reaped rewards nor see how Kobayashi was plain unlucky to miss out on many good points finishes often due to Grosjean. I'm sure you're aware as you appear to follow Sauber closely that Kobayashi often had his tyre strategy requests turned down by the team in favour of Perez, after all the Swiss had his sponsors to please and the team wanted to split strategies to reduce risk.

Time to take a step back and tone down your dislike isn't it?

Nor do I see the 'hype' you mention. He's a very good midfield driver able to execute strategies very well and IMO deserves a seat in F1. Whether Caterham is the appropriate springboard is another matter, he will be expected to beat Eriksson so that achievement will be taken for granted, yet will find it difficult to score points like every Caterham driver before him. Impressing better teams is very unlikely.

[jens]

Kobayashi had some hype around him two or three years ago, and certainly after his debut at Toyota. But it has died down by now. Currently he is viewed as merely an adequate midfield driver, who would be a competent addition to the grid.

And in comparison to Hülkenberg, times have changed. I have to say in my view Kobayashi had a more impressive season than Hülkenberg back in 2010. But Kobayashi has sort of plateaud since then, while Nico H. has very much improved. I don't think "people" would take Koba over Hulk any more.