Nice thread Jens, and nice to see the thoughts of everyone. Now here are some of mine.

I have a brand new keyboard now, so can actually type, yet for some reason many keys do not work. But just now I have gained the use of the spacebar (phew)!
Bear in mind I don't have way to much time on my hands in 2014 as I did early last year.

I actually think this season may be easier to predict than 2013, where I didn't have a clue really (see my FGP).

Thoughts about how I'm making my predictions
I have now been following F1 since 1997; this will be my... 18th season(!) This does not include 2008 and most of 2009 when I was doing something different in life altogether, and 2007 where I mostly only checked results online. But this means I now have a fair bit of experience in judging things. I certainly learned quite a bit from last year.

One thing is that it seems many insiders often don't seem to have that much a better idea than we do. 12 months ago, Sergio Perez predicted Sauber would win races. He also predicted he would be champion... Button said the new McLaren was the best one ever. Williams also felt they would make an improvement.

But there are people who know what they're talking about, and I think it's maybe learning which people's opinions to give more weight to and who's to take with a pinch of salt.

Gary Anderson seems to be a very smart guy. He was the one who, having watched the 2013 cars testing, called out the Red Bull as having "10% more downforce". He also insisted to watch out for Mercedes when I didn't have much hopes for them.

I am also very much taking note of James Allison, who said that the "works" cars should have a huge advantage in 2014 and big gaps will open out. He also rightly said the 2012 Lotus (Renault) would be like their 2005 car. Christian Horner also said half the field could retire in Melbourne. I am going to watch out for these.

I find that Gerhard Berger seems to call things very well too. He recently gave his views on the sport and some drivers. Some of it may seem controversial, but if I am fair and impartial and as objective as possible, I think he has pretty much hit the nail on the head. I remember this time 12 years ago when McLaren were looking good to challenge Ferrari and the field seemed to be closing, and Jordan also looked pretty strong, Berger insisted no, there would be 3 big teams only, and the others wouldn't get close, not even close. As it happened, he was exactly right, against all my feelings.



2014 in general
People generally seem to be thinking this season will be closer than 2013. I am sorry to disappoint, but experience tells me that the gas throughout the field should be bigger than ever. It could surpass even 2002.

I believe as in that season, this one will be about a big 3. Most of us are in agreement that this will be Red Bull, Mercedes and Ferrari. I put them in that order.

I do however, think things could actually be very close early on. This reminds me very much of the 2011 WRC, when major new regulations saw totally new cars. This meant that for the first rally in Sweden, all works teams and privateers had the same spec car, as there were no older versions to hand down to privateers. This meant that Mads Ostberg shocked everyone by leading much of the rally and only losing to works Ford driver Mikko Hirvonen by 7sec. Also, privateer Per-Gunnar Andersson showed winning pace by messed up.

What an exciting new era that was - everyone had a chance. Except... The flip side of the new cars was that they had masses of room for development as the works teams learned and got used to them. This meant that actually the gap between works and independents got bigger than ever as the works teams made big strides ahead, but the privateers were all still left with the basic spec versions, and this meant a huge gap. And it happened scarily quickly too, by round 3 or so. It turned into even more of a 4 horse race between the works Ford and Citroen drivers, with only Solberg able to keep up.

I fear that this is what 2014 will be like. Pretty close early on, but then Renault (read Red Bull), Mercedes and Ferrari will start to get a grip on their engines and develop well ahead, adapting the units much more to their own car's liking.

There's no guarantee that customer teams will get any updates of the latest specs. This means they could all be left completely behind. I think James Allison will be right.

As for unreliability, I am relishing a greater taste of this in 2014. Sadly I don't think it will be like old times as people are saying - certainly not that bloodbath someone said recently. I think the increase in unreliability will be much less dramatic than predicted - more like 2010 levels, though I think it could maybe be like 2006, when the V8s debuted. Christian Horner recently feared that half the field could retire in Melbourne. But the way he said it was suggesting this was bad and disastrous. This made me realise how used and indoctrinated we have become to supereliability. Does he not realise that before 2003, we regularly had more retirements than that, sometimes much more. Unreliability = unpredictability, a commodity which the greatest seasons invariably have a strong dose of, so any increase will be welcome.

Red Bull - Renault
I believe the hopes that Red Bull will be toppled by Mercedes have at least some wishful thinking involved, sadly. It's true that a new season can make all the difference, but Red Bull are now the best drilled team. I say do not be fooled into thinking they will be anywhere other than right up there. I would say at worst, they will be a smidgen off Mercedes.

I think they are again underplaying their chances as they do. Remember, they have been working on 2014 for pretty much longer than anyone else. They are no fools. They will be working closely with Renault, and understand headline power figures are not everything. The long game is more important, and Renault have tended to do very well on fuel consumption and driveability. I really don't think it's just going to be all about engines like a lot of people say; I merely think they will just be more of a factor, but things will be much the same. I don't set that much store by the banning of exhaust blowing - I'm sure Adrian Newey will just do a better job of the new exhausts than most.

Even if Renault are down on power, and even if their engine is not the overall best, I still see Red Bull having the best, or just about the best overall package.

As for the drivers, surely Vettel can not run away with it again by as big a margin. Despite what people say about Mercedes, I am going to install Vettel as the favourite. He could fairly dominate again, but I just cannot see how he can pull out even more of a gap. I'm thinking I'm sure Mercedes will be closer and Seb will be made to sing to sing for his supper this time round, even if it turns out to be only slightly more than in '13.

Daniel Ricciardo is of course a big unknown. Frankly, he hasn't been able to put any major points on the board, in the way that Alonso and Vettel did for the same team (Toro Rosso was formerly Minardi, remember). This must be a concern, and even if Vettel were to take a 5th crown, the WCC seems less certain, and Mercedes, with two strong drivers seem to have more of a chance here. Having said that, lots of Dan's lack of points were down to the team and car. Now he steps up to a top car and a top team with better strategy, he should achieve more potential. Winning a maiden race is not a certainty though, as even a still pretty strong Mark Webber was unable to do so last year remember - though only cos he was cheated out of that and had strange problems every time he was in contention. He won't be a disaster, but the jury is well and truly still out.