World Champion of 2009

[jens]

Less than a month to go until the first race of the season and I really couldn't resist to wait any longer before creating this thread! The discussion in this topic should be more wide-open, heated and exciting due to the reason that testing hasn't given us totally conclusive answers either.

[samuratt]

If testing means nothing, then Alonso for the championship battling with Kubica and Massa.

cheers

[keysersoze]

Kimi to win, with Kubica, Alonso, Vettel, Massa, Webber, and Lewis duking it out for the next six spots. Heidfeld and Kova the only others to feature somewhat regularly on the podium. Rosberg, Trulli and Glock will be evenly matched (and competitive) and will have sporadic success. STR and Force India will occasionally crack the top 8. The former Honda team will struggle.

Piquet to get the boot at some point during the season. Grosjean will be an instant improvement.

Rosberg will be begin shopping for a new team by June.

Both Force India drivers will be (unfairly) blamed for the lack of results. Liuzzi may get a shot during the season.

[Nikki Katz]

I think that last year I was adamant that Massa would win. Ok, I was wrong, but not by a huge amount!

I'm really not too sure this year, although I think that once the season starts it will likely not be anywhere near as close as last year, due to all the regulation changes it's hard to say exactly who will be at the front.

I guess I'd have to go for Massa again, but with a lot less conviction than before.

[RJL25]

Massa

[pettersolberg29]

This is going to sound crazy, but with experience, being the lightest driver and having a good car, I'm going for Heidfeld to win it from Hamilton then Massa. Don't think Nick will win too many, but with the new cars retirements are going to be far more common and I think Nick's consitency will get him though.

[jens]

Based on the testing evidence, past accomplishments, background information, personal opinions, preferences and impressions (read: actually based on nothing I've got to say that...

...although the exact pecking order is kinda unclear yet, I think what can be said with at least some kind of confidence, is that Ferrari should be the team, who with quite high probability should be participating in the title fight. Difficult to tell at the moment, which one of their drivers has a better chance, could be an interesting fight between them.

But the trickier question is that who is going to be Ferrari's rival or even rivals in plural. Possible options include BMW, Toyota, Alonso can't be written off either yet and maybe even Red Bull can create some mess.

With BMW it's pretty much about how much do we believe they are sandbagging. They haven't seemed to suffer notable problems, which may indicate that everything is functioning fine, but they haven't shown blinding pace either. So where do they stand? Drivers'-wise the situation is a bit unclear too. Like Kimi at Ferrari, so may Nick bounce back this year. But we'll see.

Toyota is my biased tip for the surprise of the year. Title fight might sound like a bit of a long shot to many, but Top3 in WCC in my view not. TF109 seems to be a proper racing car in every aspect - ultra-reliable, consistent, arguably one of the most tyre-conserving, a clear top car in the wet (thanks to good balance). The main question is about their ultimate pace/raw speed, but even in this department evidence is encouraging. As much as they have been testing together with Ferrari, they have seemed to trail the Prancing Horse only by a fraction of a second. The most worrying aspect may be that if rival teams master KERS, then they may find significant tenths plus advantage in tight battles on track. So in theory rivals may have a steeper development curve, but this is just a pure thought.

Renault has seemed very inconsistent, but on the better days Alonso has shown very encouraging pace, although they still seem a fraction behind Ferrari, the expected pace-setters. But even if Alonso has an inferior car, I don't dare to write his chances off especially taking into account his consistency and ability to take maximum of opportunities.

I suspect unreliability may become the main disadvantage for Red Bull, but whenever the car seems to be functioning, they have seemed quick. I'm not entirely sure about their consistency though.

Difficult to see McLaren together with Hamilton having any kind of shot at the title at the moment, at worst case scenario it could be a 2004-style cock-up unless they find a quick fix to their problems.

[pettersolberg29]

good summary altho pretty sure mclaren will come good

[jens]

good summary altho pretty sure mclaren will come good

Yes, I think they are highly professional team, who will master the rules sooner or later, but that could happen in 2010 or they may improve in the second half of 2009 (like they did in 2004 after a troubled start).

[Rollo]

Only seven cars tested at Jerez, and of these the fastest was Glock with a time of 1:30.979. If you bear in mind that the lap record is held by HH Frentzen at 1:23.135 then the whole field must be sandbagging.

It follows that Massa, Raikkonen and Hamilton will be the most likely to square off for the title based on last year.