Career Progression - the Brookes/Ellison Effect

[patnicholls]

At this time of year there's a lot of chat on the Rumour Mill thread about what's happening next year - who's going where and all. Some of it turns out to be totally true, some of it happens a year later than was rumoured (like Max going to WSB), and much of it turns out to be complete rubbish and is swept under the carpet as quickly as possible.

Understandably a lot of rumours centre around young up-and-comers being promoted up the ranks very quickly, and this hardly ever turns out to be true. It's understandable because we all want to see the talent come through and progress – watching the same guys hold the same seats every year would clearly be boring and would render the lower series pointless. And it is disappointing to see someone hogging a seat who should be replaced by fresher blood who might do better – take a look at some of the guys over in F1 who are taking a grid slot and little else despite years in the sport.

There are all kinds of reasons why things are a little more cautious than what we often hope for – having a 'name' driver/rider can boost your brand compared with an unknown, the risk of someone lacking in experience, canny contract negotiations by the guy already in the seat, sponsor favouritism (the so-called 'Checa Effect'), etc.

Another reason is the point of this thread, and it's to do with the career development of young riders and taking the right steps and risks at the right time particularly in terms of the world stage. I call it the Brookes-Ellison effect, after Josh Brookes and James Ellison.

Josh Brookes' two years in World Supersport and Superbikes make interesting reading. He came to most people outside Australia's prominence by winning the Philip Island WSS round as a wildcard in 2004, and then backed it up taking the Aussie domestic Superbike and Supersport titles a year later. So far, so good – certainly enough to get onto the world scene somewhere. Sure enough, he was picked up by Caracchi to run their Ducati in WSS in 2006. He took 6th at PI but things didn't go well overall, and he departed fairly early in the season to step up to WSB with Bertocchi Kawasaki. Again this wasn't a good move – he only scored a couple of points. The team acquired new backers and Hondas for this year to become the Alto Evolution team, and to be fair he's had some promising runs although in midfield mostly. Again he's departed [following the team woes] and is back to WSS with Stiggy Honda which has only left him with five races in total to make an impression to find something for 2008 – a big ask. It's fair to say that his undeniable talent is in danger of being snuffed out.

James Ellison is another guy who's had some interesting moves through various series. He's won the European Superstock Championship (in 2000 and 2001, I believe) before taking the World Endurance title in 2003 after a year in WSS. World Endurance isn't usually seen as a route upward in short-format racing, so James was off back to Britain in 2004. He competed in the BSB Cup class – that's for year-old machinery running within the main race – and took the title as well as 11th overall in the standings. At the end of that season the WCM MotoGP team gave him a run out and signed him for 2005 where he got a few points. He then got the call from Tech3 for 2006, and we know how that turned out. He now races mid-pack in AMA Superbikes for Corona Honda.

The point is that Josh and James are two amongst many guys who could be in a better position than where they are because of the progression choices they've made. With the best will in the world, probably the best Josh can hope for next year is to stay with Stiggy and try and get a full season under his belt, which will most likely be quite successful. I would be amazed if he got a Ten Kate chance, simply because he's not stuck somewhere for a full year in Worlds and so his name barely registers on the standings. James grabbed at two MotoGP chances which came his way and have now left him over in the States and not with a top team after they didn't work out – in an alternate version of events he could be a pretty successful guy in World Superbikes right now (riding as a wildcard in 2004, he took 5th at Brands in WSB on a year-old Yamaha in fact). I've maligned James Ellison as much as anyone but it could genuinely have been possible – James Toseland wasn't stellar until 2002, for example.

I make no apologies for focusing on mainly Brits in this thread, simply because they and BSB are more familiar to me. The same things apply to a lot of riders.

Two examples where the opposite is true – and guys have made fairly good decisions – are Neil Hodgson and Shakey Byrne. Neil took the BSB title in 2000 with GSE, stepped up to WSB with them and then went to the factory Ducati team and took the title with them in 2003. His Superbike credentials are not in doubt. He then had a duff season in MotoGP with D'Antin and went to the States which went OK considering the Duke wasn't a match for the Suzukis or Hondas – and he beat both Bostroms on home soil. Now he's without a ride but this is where those years 2000-3 come in – because he's got a steady string of seasons and two titles he can still negotiate for top rides. James Ellison by comparison, jumped at a MotoGP chance too soon that didn't yield anything – so the last success people will see on his CV is the BSB privateer Cup. Now a successful (top 5-ish) season or two in full BSB [which he could have had] instead of going to MotoGP straight away is starting to look like it would have been a good idea. Shakey won the 2003 BSB title before moving to MotoGP to ride the ApriliBeast and then the ill-fated KR-KTM. Again, they didn't work out but the BSB title in the bag means he'll always be able to get back on a top BSB bike somewhere. You can't help but the Joshes and James Ellisons of this world could have got further on with a little more patience.

There's a parallel to be drawn with F1 racing and some of the promotions from lower series there – Nico Rosberg, Heikki Kovalainen and Lewis Hamilton all fully earnt their spurs in GP2, justifying their promotion up to top F1 seats. Some guys we've seen in the past have been plucked by F1 skipping several stage of the ladder, and as a result if it doesn't work you're a little lost for where to go. If Kimi Raikkonen (plucked from British Formula Renault to F1 – the equivalent of going from the British 125cc Champs to full MotoGP in one step) had turned out to be rubbish, he'd really be struggling.

So, I guess the point is – the ladder series are there for good reason. Moving up the ranks is important but it's important to do it in the correct way and at the right time – sometimes a sudden move can work but often putting in the hard graft gradually will work out better. Getting too eager can blow things if it doesn't work out. So don't be too eager to grab that MotoGP opportunity unless the time's really right.

[Corny]

way too much to read : P

[ChrisS]

Soup has an interview with Kevin Schwantz http://www.superbikeplanet.com/2007/Aug/070815-34.htm

questions 11 and 12 are about Roger Lee Hayden and Chaz Davies and I think they are relevant to this topic. He says that if the opportunity comes a rider must take it.

of course Schwantz went from club racing to a factory Suzuki superbike in less than a year, thats maybe moving too fast

[motorsportfan]

Interesting REading about James Ellison. He would have won the European Superstocks for a third time had he not also been competing in World Endurance in the same year But the small budget he had running his own team did not cover all rounds consequently he only finished Third in the Championships. Most times when James raced in Italy in Superstocks his bike was stripped down and handed back in a box. The only person it hurt was James he was continually racing every year for no money. During that Same year whilst competing in World Endurance and Euro superstocks he also tried the American Scene in Formula Extreme. He was trying so hard to be seen and so when the offer of being a replacment rider for the very talented Chris Burns came along he grabbed it with both hands. His enthusiasm in that team was amazing. Although he knew he was never going to get a podium he went out there and rode the wheels off the bike. Lifted up the spirits of everyone in the team and consequently was signed up again the following year. During this same year as replacement rider he went on to win the BSB privateer and also as you say succeeded in WSBK. So for all his successes and his struggles it is sad to see him over in America racing mid pack when he should be over here in WSBK. It also saddened me to see Neil Hodgson being given the opportunity to race at Laguna under James Team colours on a fACTORY Honda whilst James was still on the Sattelite bike.

[neninja]

Chris Burns is another rider who made some poor choices and suffered from bad luck.

He looked very promising - successful start to his racing in 125's winning races at national level. He then eventually moved to Superstock where he again won races and was challenging for the 2002 British Superstock title going into the final round only 10points of the lead. Tyre problems meant he dnf'd and ended the year 3rd. The same year he also won at least one European Superstock round.

Then it all went a bit pear shaped. He moved to WCM in MotoGP on a bike that simply wasn't up to the job - poor engine, poor chassis etc etc. He kept getting injured trying to qualify the thing each week and after 1 1/2 seasons was replaced by James Ellison due to further ongoing injuries.

In 2005 he was 10th the 1st time out on the uncompetitive Aim Yamaha in BSB. He parted company with Aim early in 2006 whilst competing in British Supersport with them. The Aim R6 started the season under developed and with almost no testing and things didn't get much better.

Since then he's hardly raced apart from a couple of recent entries riding an MV in Superstock (both rounds were rained off - more bad luck)

From MotoGP to nothing in just over a year.

[Mach24]

It truly is a fine line between success and failure (or mediocrity at least).

Using Josh Brookes as the example, he has the potential to be as good as any one in WSB. He made the decision to moved on from Australia as he had just done the double (winning Superbike and Supersport title in same year) and would have gone very close the year prior if not for a freak accident in the wet at Barbagallo Raceway in Western Australia resulting in a fractured pelvis.

Josh needed to move and the most logical step was to WSS after winning the Aussie round of the WSS at PI on a Honda.

Josh made the decision to ride for a private Ducati team with (I am assuming here) the express goal of impressing the factory. He found himself on uncompetitive machinery in an underfunded team, the story of many a rider (try Steve Martin for one). Then came Berttochi Kawasaki with some decent results (in relative terms) and then the switch to Honda's at the beginning of 07' with some dollars from Honda Australia to sweeten the deal. The Alto Evolution deal is now history!

Josh has made the most of nothing in regards to bringing dollars to a team. Should Josh get a seat at Ten Kate WSB for example he would need a season before becoming a championship threat but would definitely be fighting for wins in the first season. Yet in Europe he has little to no profile and with it no pulling power with regard to sponsorship. In Australia Josh could pretty much pick which team he wanted to ride for and they would hire him.

Is it poor decision making or is it luck? Sometimes performing well on what is clearly lacking machinery can only enhance your worth.

Josh needs to ride the wheels of the Stiggy bike and dominate his team mate, then he has clearly demonstrated his ability against the only true reference point.

(There are many similarities between Josh Brookes and Ant West, but Ant has done it internationally for a longer period)

[motorsportfan]

I agree with what you say about Chris Burns. I was once talking to Ellison and he told me that Chris had worked so hard on developing the WCM and took such a lot of knocks in the process, he couldnt understand why other people in the GP Paddock hadnt recognised this and give him another chance in GP. Then of course we never know what goes on in GP do we. Its strange that all James times in testing beat Guintollis times but Guintolli gets the ride the following year......

[buddie]

I have just been watching the AMA and was surprised to see so few competing after failing to qualify 10 riders were unable to participate in the actual race that day as the power of the Factory suzukis quashed any chance of the privateers being within the times needed to compete during the race week end. That was a whole lot of money down the drain for many riders and sponsors... The gap continually windening each year.

[ChrisS]

in AMA Superbike a lot of riders are on Superstock spec bikes, that is why there is such a huge gap between the front runners and the rest

and I don't mean that the back markers are on superstock bikes. mid field riders are also on Superstock. for example Jordan Suzuki has Yates on a superbike spec bike and Holden on a superstock spec

[The Phantom]

Do most (all?) riders use managers to negotiate this stuff? I'm sure there's good and bad managers/agents out there... also, we're talking guys that take risks for a living, so some are not going to go for the 'safe' option.

And some just love to race and will take whatever's going.

Vermeulen was a good example of a rider derided for making a 'bad' choice, but he's now arguably one of the top ten names in the world. Clearly, what the rider brings to the table is of equal importance to the quality of the team/bike he is racing on... some riders out there should perhaps take note.

Great post Pat.