2026 - Race 3 [Japan]

[F1nKS]

We have Japan in two weeks. What craziness will it throw at us before the early-season break?

[Steve Boyd]

We have Japan in two weeks. What craziness will it throw at us before the early-season break?

I don't mind a bit of craziness - it all adds to the fun - as long as the weather isn't like the infamous Hunt/Lauda showdown!

[Nitrodaze]

I don't mind a bit of craziness - it all adds to the fun - as long as the weather isn't like the infamous Hunt/Lauda showdown!

A bit of rain might be good. These cars were not tested for wet racing as the scheduled test was cancelled due to the situation in Iran. Hence, no one knows what these cars are like in wet conditions. I am curious to see how the cars behave during electric power deployment and wing flap up on ther approach to the corners.

[Steve Boyd]

I'd be OK with a bit of rain - just not a full blown monsoon!

Seeing the difficulties with power delivery that some cars have experienced, a wet or damp race could prove very interesting. I wonder how much adjustment there is in the management systems over how the power is deployed. They're all "drive by wire" so we may see who has the best handle on that part of the software in a low grip race.

[F1nKS]

Rumors of Aston Martin restructuring, and Newey will step down as team principal, or might be completely out. Of course, Aston Martin says nothing is going on.

[Nitrodaze]

Rumors of Aston Martin restructuring, and Newey will step down as team principal, or might be completely out. Of course, Aston Martin says nothing is going on.

Nah, Newey is in Aston Martin for the long term. He is a partner, not an employee. He did not join Aston Martin to be a team leader; that role was thrust upon him by Stroll. Which, in hindsight, was the wrong idea. Aston always needed someone dedicated to managing the operations. You would not find any top team with someone running the technical strategy and daily operations. Two skillsets in one individual is the sort of thing you would find with privateer teams, where resources are very limited. Such that everyone must wear two hats to carry the team forward. Aston Martin is a big team, though pulling under its weight at the moment. It is unreasonable to expect Newey to perform both of those roles. Besides, he lacks operations management experience. Other people have carried that responsibility everywhere he has worked in the past.

[Nitrodaze]

I'd be OK with a bit of rain - just not a full blown monsoon!

Seeing the difficulties with power delivery that some cars have experienced, a wet or damp race could prove very interesting. I wonder how much adjustment there is in the management systems over how the power is deployed. They're all "drive by wire" so we may see who has the best handle on that part of the software in a low grip race.

I lied a bit. There was some wet running at the Barcelona preseason testing l recall. Some teams have wet experience. McLaren, Williams, Aston Martin and possibly Redbull did not do much wet running in the test. I am not sure LeClerc and the Mercedes pair had any wet running either. It would be interesting for sure if it rains at Suzuka.

[Matthew]

It wouldn’t be a surprise to see Mercedes win again this Sunday, but I am expecting McLaren to bounce back and make it a real fight. We could be in for a close battle between Mercedes, Ferrari and McLaren, with Max Verstappen right there in the mix. With a bit of rain possibly coming in, Suzuka has all the ingredients for a classic race and it usually delivers even without mixed conditions.

Off track, there is plenty going on for fans too, with multiple fan zones offering live shows, food, merch and interactive experiences, plus driver appearances and stage events throughout the weekend. Artists like MOS and Ryoma Quartet are part of the lineup, so it really feels more like a festival than just a race weekend.

[Nitrodaze]

It wouldn’t be a surprise to see Mercedes win again this Sunday, but I am expecting McLaren to bounce back and make it a real fight. We could be in for a close battle between Mercedes, Ferrari and McLaren, with Max Verstappen right there in the mix. With a bit of rain possibly coming in, Suzuka has all the ingredients for a classic race and it usually delivers even without mixed conditions.

Off track, there is plenty going on for fans too, with multiple fan zones offering live shows, food, merch and interactive experiences, plus driver appearances and stage events throughout the weekend. Artists like MOS and Ryoma Quartet are part of the lineup, so it really feels more like a festival than just a race weekend.

It would be nice for Piastri to finish a race this season. McLaren is on their back foot at the moment. A fortnight is not enough time to recover ground. But it is enough to resolve whatever issues keep them from running in China. But would they be in the mix with Ferrari and Mercedes? I don't think so. But they can trouble them if they have a bad race. The McLaren starts were as good as the Ferrari start. Hence, we would expect them to gain ground at the start of the race. Their race pace is likely to be still half a second slower than the Ferrari.

That said, Suzuka is a narrow track. Track position is paramount here, as overtaking is possible but very tricky. If the Ferrari cars get ahead of the Mercedes and are able to maintain that position going into the first corner, they may pull away in the first half of the circuit, which has a lot of twisty bits. The Mercedes may catch up to them in the second half of the track, which has two long straights connected by one fast corner, which they take flat out. But passing may be harder than usual.

With cooperation between the Ferrari drivers and some great strategies, Ferrari may pull off a race win this weekend. Realistically, Mercedes would win the race; the question is whether Russell can return to winning ways. Or is Antonelli on a charge?