2021 - Race 21 Saudi Arabia

[Nitrodaze]

We learned from Leclerc they can only do some checks, but can't fully test it. I expect we wake up in the morning and when the FIA publishes all their papers before the race and RBR out of caution will take the new gearbox.

It would be very unfortunate if they have to change the gearbox. I am hoping the gearbox is ok, with the grid starting as qualified. I would be gutted if we miss out on the tussle off the start line at lights out.

If it starts without gearbox change, Verstappen has the chance to be in the lead before the first corner as the Redbull switches on its tyres faster and better than the Mercedes. But the race would come alive a few laps later when the Mercedes gets heat into their tyres and unleash the full power of their engine. Which would produce the scenario of Hamilton overtaking Verstappen in what might produce the all expected crash.

If Redbull changes the gearbox, Verstappen would start from 8th or 9th place on the grid. It would thereafter be risky work getting through the fierce midfield on this fast, twisty and wall lined track to get back to podium positions. Third is possible; at best, which may result in the lead in the driver's championship switching hands again. But the constructor's championship would be further out of Redbull's reach.

This is a crazy track with [likely] lots of crashes and safety cars to bunch up the field, so anything is possible. Including a Verstappen win.