Rally Sweden 2016

[hype]

Happy with just a change of itinerary. There were many worse options, great solution from the organizers. Since we never planned shakedown and are arriving only on thursday afternoon there's no big loss for us. We're planning to see maybe 9-10 stages in stead of 11-12.

9-10? Wow, that sounds like a tight itinerary for you
Which stages are you going to visit?

[tommeke_B]

9-10? Wow, that sounds like a tight itinerary for you
Which stages are you going to visit?

This is the plan. It's possible if we don't face any problems on the road...
Torsby (only WRC cars) - Svullrya (2x - 2nd time only WRC cars) - Torsby, Fredriksberg (only WRC cars) - Vargasen (2x), SSS Karlstadt (maybe), Lesjofors (only WRC cars) - Varmullsasen

[hype]

Sounds cool, maybe I'll see you on one of the stages. How do I recognize you?

[WRCstratos]

This is the plan. It's possible if we don't face any problems on the road...
Torsby (only WRC cars) - Svullrya (2x - 2nd time only WRC cars) - Torsby, Fredriksberg (only WRC cars) - Vargasen (2x), SSS Karlstadt (maybe), Lesjofors (only WRC cars) - Varmullsasen

Wow, at least I'm not the only crazy person thinking about that :-)
Changing on Sunday should be possible, Friday as well.
But Frederiksberg to Vargasen on Saturday morning is really risky. Last year there were 20min more time than this year and it was already really really close (left Frederiksberg after 13 cars). Note that there are many many people at Vargasen, so parking may be difficult. Plus this year there won't be any shuttle services that take you over the lake.

I expect a lot more spectators on those remaining stages, especially on Friday without Kirkenaer. Saturday most people will be on Vargasen I guess, as it is the only one run twice this day.

[tommeke_B]

Sounds cool, maybe I'll see you on one of the stages. How do I recognize you?

Maybe we'll meet. You may recognize me, normally with my Canon camera and a Nicolas Gilsoul (grey/orange/white) hat. How about you?

@WRCstratos, it's not going to be easy indeed, we'll see.

[hype]

Also Canon with WRC sticker on lens hood. Everything else of my clothing is black and grey, so pretty boring
Maybe I'll take my Rally Ireland sweater with me.
I'll keep an eye out

[Lundefaret]

Weather is going to be a deciding factor on this years Rally Sweden.


Little or no snow(banks), but ice (cold):
Will level the playing field.
Meeke, Paddon, and Latvala are three drivers that will benefit.

Massive amount of snow the night before (freshly cleared roads):
Will be an advantage to the specialits.
Østberg, Mikkelsen, Latvala and Ogier will benefit.

Snow and warm weather with slush/thawing snow.
Will be a benefit for the specialist, and the Nose End First-er.
Østberg, Mikkelsen and Ogier (and possibly Sordo who does good in poor grip situations with a lot of understeer.)

In general:

Volkswagen:

Car: Clearly the best car for Rally Sweden. The chassis is made for it.

Edit: Risk level means risk of loosing time because of punctures etc. Not only going of.

- Ogier: Will be the clear favorit, and the worse the condition, the clearer the favorit.
Speed: 10 Risk: 2
- Latvala: He has the potential to be the fastets man in Sweden. Low or no snow banks can be an advantage, because he could use more of the road. This will also lead to a risk of exsessive cutting, and then a risk of damage because of that. Win it or bin it seems to be the motto.
Speed: 10 Risk: 7
- Mikkelsen: Definetly with podium potential. If he leads after day one or two, it will be a mind game. He is fast enough on snow to win in Sweden, but seems to tense up when he is in this position, and then its a risk of outbraking him self, or over driving.
Speed: 9 Risk: 6

Hyundai:

Car: Very uncertain about the car. Something in the damper movement with little yaw and squat dosent look right for loose surface rallies, but looks can descieve. My tought is that the car can be a little unprecise, leading the Hynudai-drivers to have punctures etc because of misjudging cutting, exits etc.

- Thierry Neuville: Has been fast in Sweden, but thats more down to the grip level makint the chassis of the old i20 suit him better. If the conditions suits him (good and predictable grip), he is in for a shot fighting for a podium position.
Speed: 8 Risk: 6
- Dani Sordo: A dark horse in Sweden. If its low grip and he is forced to drive with an understeering car, he can be very fast. He can be the surprise of the rally if the conditions become him.
Speed: 7 Risk: 5
- Haydon Paddon: With low or no snow banks he is a clear outsider, and I would tip him for a podium fight. If its fresh snow and snow banks, he could be in troubble if the early results has been to good. With horns growing out of his helmet he could miss judge an exit and loose a lot of time/or go of.
Speed: 8 Risk: 7

Citroën:

Car: If its good grip (ice), it is one of the fastest cars in Sweden. If its low grip (fresh snow), it can be very difficult to find the right set up.

- Kris Meeke: With high grip I see him challenging for the podium, and setting fastest times. With low grip I think he will struggle.
Speed: 9 Risk: 7
- AL Qassimi: Will fight for top 5-6, depending on how many of the top drivers that will go of.
Speed: 6 Risk: 5
- Craig Breen: Will fight with Camilli to be the best of the "new ones".
Speed: 6 Risk: 8

Ford:

Car: Very good for all Swedish conditions, and definetly fast enough to win.

- Mads Østberg: Very dependent on his set up the first day. He often misses on this, making the next two days a fight to get the right set up, setting good stage times the last day. If he hits the set up, he will be in a fight for a podium.
Speed (with right set up): 9 Risk: 3
- Eric Camilli: With good grip and little snow he can fight for 4-6, depending on how many of the faster guys that go off. Towards the end of the rally I expect him to be a positive surprise regarding stage times.
Speed: 6 Risk: 6

Privateers:
- Ott Tänak: The tires will be an issue. Ott is fast, and will have an advantage if there is little snow.
Speed: 7 Risk: 7
- Henning Solberg: On the right day he can be a big surprise, but he has driven to little lately. Should aim to be the best privateer. A top 5 finish would be a huge accomplishment.
Speed: 7 Risk 6
- Yazeed: Will have the same speed as Camilli.
Speed: 6 Risk: 7
- Bertelli: Will be easier with out fresh snow. Will have to fight very hard to be faster than the best WR2.
Speed: 4 Risk: 9

WRC2:
The WRC 2race carries a lot of prestige, and will be a wild race with factory drivers challenged by wanting-to-become-factory drivers.

Skoda: Very fast car, and the bench mark in the class.

- Lappi: A very fast driver. Will challenge for the win, and with a trouble free finish will be secured a podium.
Speed: 9 Risk: 7
- Tideman: The favorit. Extremely fast in Sweden, but needs to be in the right frame of mind.
Speed: 10 Risk: 6

Ford: Very good car, especially with the Evo upgrade.

- Evans: I will be pleasantly surprised if he can mingle with Lappi and Tideman.
Speed: 7 Risk: 5
- Brynhildsen: Very fast, but was a little disappointing (edited, NOT disappointing) in the last Norwegian Championgship round. Is a "cutter". Can be very fast on the right day. I expect him to be one of the closest rivals to the Skoda gang.

Edit: About 10 people have contacted me letting me know that Eyvind used WRC tires (wider 15" compared to a faster narrow 16") on Rally Finnskogen, the last round of the Norwegian Championship. This taken in to account, and the speed was not disappointing at all!
Sorry for the oversight. I couldnt attend the rally because I was working as a driving instructor on a frozen lake for Hankook in another part of Norway.

Speed: 8 Risk: 7

Privateers:
The will most likely be devided in two groups.
Fight to challenge for the last podium position:
- Åhlin
- Grøndal

Fight for top 4 spot:
- Pärn
- Aasen
- Berqvist
- Suninen

The WRC2 race will be extremly exiting, at least the fight for 3rd.

Looking forward to Rally Sweden!

[hype]

GPS Sync of the Onboards on rally-maps.com is not working anymore?

[Simmi]

Given I'm flying out tomorrow I'm super nervous it still won't run.

We still need that big chill: http://www.autosport.com/news/report...medium=twitter

[dodge33cymru]

Thursday and Friday forecasts seem to have gotten slightly higher again, although still below zero, and no sign of snow in them until Saturday.