Silly Season speculation

[jens]

Wow, rj. Next year predictions get earlier each year, don't they?! You are already calculating 2016 averages.

I am unsure what to think of the Renault potential takeover of the Lotus team. It looks like they have still re-signed Maldonado. Renault wants to supply 1 team only... It leaves an impression they want "to do" F1 on a shoestring budget. That's why Red Bull sent them away, because taking things "half-seriously" won't bring success. In the context of 2016 this new Renault team may well endure a kind of season the same Lotus had in 2014 then...

As for Red Bull themselves... Things are getting very messy. I don't know what to think of Mateschitz' threats of pull-out if they don't get an up-to-date power unit, but competitive situation in F1 is bad (only 2 competitive engine/team combos) and Red Bull doesn't want to be an also-ran team like McLaren is...

Button retiring? Well, unless he is pushed out behind the doors, he must have lost belief in the McLaren-Honda project... Quite telling.

[jens]

And how do we think the competitive order might shake up? In 2015 so far, average qualifying has gone something like this (to nearest 0.05sec):


8.Grosjean +1.60
9.Kvyat +1.65
10.Sainz +1.70
11.Verstappen +1.85
12.Hulkenberg +1.90
13.Maldonado +1.90
14.Perez +2.20

I have to say this is pretty interesting. Despite Force India being well ahead of Toro Rosso in WCC, they have been worse in qualifyings. Also Lotus has been better than FI. Shows what a splendid job FI has been doing on race days!

[jens]

The weirdest rumour is Grosjean to Haas. It doesn't make any sense on any front. It reminds me of how Glock/Kovalainen went to Virgin/Caterham or whatever they were called back in 2010.

The only "sense" this move has is if despite Renault take-over the team is in such a huge financial trouble they need another paydriver alongside Maldonado and Grosjean doesn't bring "enough" despite oil giant Total support I think.

[rjbetty]

I have to say this is pretty interesting. Despite Force India being well ahead of Toro Rosso in WCC, they have been worse in qualifyings. Also Lotus has been better than FI. Shows what a splendid job FI has been doing on race days!

Yeah they have been doing. It's interesting that last year Toro Rosso were also quicker than FI in qualifying. The averages were roughly...

11.Kvyat +1.8
12.Hulkenberg +1.9
13.Vergne +1.9
14.Perez +2.2

Yet in the final points FI were way WAY ahead of Toro Rosso.


As for Grosjean, the BBC are now reporting it too. Here's a link. If they are posting it, it's probably serious.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/formula1/34316550

Romain's reasoning is that Haas' close links with Ferrari will enable him to use the team as a shop window to display his talents and audition for a Ferrari seat for 2017. Ferrari will use their links to be able to see all his data. It's a dangerous game as Hulkenberg tried this a few years ago with Sauber and was found to fall slightly short in Ferrari's opinion. I also think Grosjean probably thinks he has little to lose since his current team are due to take back that Renault engine again, and yeah drop back to near 2014 levels, so he thinks no thanks I'm outta here.

Ah yeah just like Christmas, the predictions get earlier and earlier. Guess I just can't resist. But it'll be interesting to see how they change up until the eve of the first race, as new details filter through.

[zako85]

The weirdest rumour is Grosjean to Haas. It doesn't make any sense on any front. It reminds me of how Glock/Kovalainen went to Virgin/Caterham or whatever they were called back in 2010.

It's quite simple. The Enstone team regrets letting Petrov go after 2011. Now they want their Russian back in Grosjean's seat.

[jens]

So Grosjean @ Haas is confirmed. Oh god. I sympathize a lot with him, but it looks like a career straight into dustbin.

As for claims that this could be an audition for the Ferrari seat, I doubt it. Ferrari will of course extend Räikkönen's deal again, regardless of how much he underperforms... Massa vol.2.

More seriously I think Ricciardo and Bottas are likely to be ahead of Grosjean on the driver market wish list again, just like they were this year. And who knows, who else...

Simple logic tells - if Ferrari REALLY wanted Grosjean, they would have signed him this year, because he was available. Instead of retaining another (aging) driver. Ricciardo and also Bottas were under contract as I understand. There were rumours Ferrari had to pay 10-15M to get Valtteri out of the deal and probably it didn't make financial sense.

I think 2015 (silly) season also sort of unofficially confirms that Hülkenberg's top team aspirations are over, despite him being available. Though considering he can't beat Pérez any more either, it now seems to have some merit. At least Hulk can still continue in strong midfield unlike RoGro...

[dj_bytedisaster]

So Grosjean @ Haas is confirmed. Oh god. I sympathize a lot with him, but it looks like a career straight into dustbin.

Why? Next year's Haas will look a damn lot like this year's Ferrari. That's gotta be good enough to beat most other cars and Haas is essentially To Ferrari what Toro Rosso is to Red Bull - a team to park or develop drivers and Kimi's only on for another year. RoGro would be in pole position for a 2017 Ferrari seat.

[jens]

As far as I understand, Haas' chassis is designed by Dallara, who also built the HRT chassis (though was paid less than by Haas). Haas purchases the drivetrain and power unit from Ferrari, but nowadays all customer teams buy this kind of stuff from their engine manufacturer.

And experience of following F1 throughout years tells me that it is easy to overestimate newcomers, while you need loads of experience and money to actually succeed. Last such one was McLaren-Honda. Honda was heavily overrated before re-joining F1. And Haas isn't even a "top team" in terms of budget or manpower, they are more like in the Caterham range.

So there is no reason to get carried away. Haas beating "most of the teams" is wishful thinking, pretty clearly. They'll be firmly at the back, perhaps better than Manor though. Though if Manor gets Mercedes engines, that'll be a boost...

[Nitrodaze]

The thing with new teams like haas, is the lack of experience, lack of data history of the chassis and getting the chassis right on debut. The first year is purely going to be exploratory. Essentially to find out if they have got the chassis design right and if the Ferrari engine works well with it. Then there is the endless chase after downforce and alignment of on-track characteristic with simulated data from wind tunnel and simulators. With limited testing in todays F1, it is a mountainous task to step into the midfield from turning the wheel for the first time. Virgin tried to run a completely new computerized designed chassis and failed, Haas may do better, but the odds are stacked against them.

Mercedes was able to do that on their entry to f1 because they bought an existing team with lots of data and a chassis with lots of mileage. Hence realistically, one would expect Haas to join Manor at the rear of the grid. Unfortunately, new teams and suppliers to the F1 paddock are severely handicapped by the highly restrictive rules of the current day F1.

As for Grojean's move to Haas, it could be quite a risky move as he could be out of the visibility of other teams as a result of driving a backmarker car. A reality that is hurting Alonso and Button as the moment. They can't showcase their true capability at the back of the grid.

If Renault is focused solely on their own team, without the distraction of supplying other teams, l would think that is a better proposition to driving at the rear of the grid. The Renault team would have a chassis with lots of mileage and historical data. Even with their current underpowered engine, they would be running in the midfield. Hence they have an advantage that Haas would give their left kidney for; a midfield level chassis with good downforce and a works engine. I would expect the 2016 Renault engine to be faster than the current engine, as they would have learnt a great deal about what is wrong with the design of the current engine and where to find more horsepower in the design of next years engine.

To be honest, it is a daft move to leave Renault for Haas. Not to mention that Renault has been world champions in the past with Alonso. The comparative experience is a very wide gulf and a no brainer.

There is of course the question whether Lotus would actually be bought by Renault and whether Lotus survives their impending court case. In which case it could be a brilliant decision to jump a sinking ship.

[AndyL]

The Button retirement possibility seems to have receded a bit this weekend. Ron Dennis says on Sky that he's told Button earlier this week that McLaren will be taking up his contract option next year, no renegotiation. And in his post-race interview, Button started talking about next year's package.