Unless the market for drivers opens up and someone will suddenly be up for grabs, I doubt M-Sport would look to replace either of their current two drivers. However, from a stricly hypothetical point of view, I would argue that it would in fact be Evans getting the boot rather than Tänak if M-Sport were to get rid of one of them.

I do agree that Evans is a long-term investment for M-Sport, but I also find it difficult to believe that Malcolm Wilson would keep Evans over Tänak for 2016. Evans does have consistency, but he lacks speed. Big-time. While Tänak regularly sets stage times that rival (and sometimes beat) the very best, Evans simply doesn't. Tänak has also shown incredible pace on many rallies this season as evident in the ultra-fast Rally Poland as well as other very solid performances.

Evans has now had almost two full seasons at the WRC's finest level, but as mentioned previously in this thread, he unfortunately has not given M-Sport much reason to believe that he is worthy of a seat in 2016. His recent lack of form (stretching back to May) isn't helping his case.

The thing that speaks for Evans over Tänak would be Evans' consistency (although this has been lacking quite a bit lately). This is what Evans seems to have and Tänak doesn't. A brilliant drive in the season opener by Tänak was ruined by a silly mistake on day 2, throwing away what looked like a podium finish. We all know how Mexico went, and Argentina wasn't much better. Meanwhile Evans was putting up solid numbers - never flashy in any way, but decent, consistent Evans-like numbers. But then something happened that would have a huge impact on both drivers: Enter the new Fiesta.

In the end it might come down to this: Tänak has adapted extremely well to the new Fiesta, and that's vital, especially because Evans has had the exact opposite reaction. This is without a doubt something M-Sport look at when establishing who's in and who's out. So while Evans has lost his consistency since Rally Portugal when the new car was introduced, Tänak has been more consistent and shown incredible pace as well, regardless of the road surface. Let's have the numbers speak for themselves:

Evans before the new car: 6 - 8 - 12 - 15 (41 pts in 4 rounds) average 10.25
Tänak before the new car: 0 - 12 - 0 - 1 (13 pts in 4 rounds) average 3.25

Evans after the new car: 0 - 12 - 0 - 0 - 8 - 2 (22 pts in 6 rounds) average 3.66
Tänak after the new car: 10 - 0 - 15+2 - 10 - 4 - 8 (49 pts in 6 rounds) average 8.16

Evans' age does work in his favour as he is still young, but it seems like he has lost what he was once praised for: Consistency. It basically comes down to whether you're an optimist or pessimist regarding whether Evans will bounce back or not, or rather, whether Malcolm Wilson believes the former or the latter.

It's not an easy decision, but I would keep Tänak. Let's get a friendly discussion going to see everyone's point of view on this.