McLaren could have very easily kept it's current drivers and Alonso would have been totally out in the cold. Where else could he go? He's not going to Sauber and he probably heard all year from Kimmi about the paychecks he had to fight for at Lotus.

Mercedes is set. Red Bull is set. Ferrari is set. Williams is set. Force India is set. Torro Rosso is set. Even Lotus appears set, so what's left outside of Caterham and Marussia?

The only possibility left is McLaren.

Knowing this, Dennis could have used that for leverage, and you can well imagine he would have probably enjoyed it. Why would you pay $40 million for a driver if he has nowhere else to go?

Of course, Honda money might be involved here, but they already have a long relationship with Button. My guess is that Mags is probably out. To me it would make more sense to keep Mags for the future instead of Button for his last hurrah.

Alonso isn't real young in F1 terms either, so driver-wise, McLaren is only planning one or two years ahead. This is in sharp contrast to Red Bull picking up Vettel when he was 12 years old.