Silly Season speculation

[truefan72]

It is being reported (Eurosport) that Wiliams has agreed to a 12million pound buyout of Bottas from Ferrari and the finn is set to replace kimi at Ferrari for 2016

while i can somewhat understand releasing kimi ( he never felt comfortable in his return for whatever reason) The move for bottas makes sense for ferrari but not so much for bottas. If there is anything his teammate could have told him was to warn him about the dangers of taking a job to be firmly a #2 driver. Bottas is a rising star and if anything should have stayed at williams to become "the man" then waited to see how the cars and market shakes out in 2017. Going to ferrari now means being compromised for vettel and being treated as 2nd fiddle.
As for Kimi. I see 2 options, either retirement or a move to Force India

[rjbetty]

If that happens, then I guess Hulk will be welcomed back at Williams, in which case it would be interesting to see how he would deal with Massa.

But who would get the Force India drive? Could Vergne be a contender?

[truefan72]

If that happens, then I guess Hulk will be welcomed back at Williams, in which case it would be interesting to see how he would deal with Massa.

But who would get the Force India drive? Could Vergne be a contender?

thats a good choice and proabably deserved too

here are others i'd like to see before some newbie

buemi, diresta, kobayashi

[AndyL]

It is being reported (Eurosport) that Wiliams has agreed to a 12million pound buyout of Bottas from Ferrari and the finn is set to replace kimi at Ferrari for 2016

The story comes from an Italian newspaper it appears, with no confirmation elsewhere so it's not a certainty yet. But it makes a lot of sense for all involved. Even Bottas - no doubt he fancies his chances of measuring up against Vettel the way Ricciardo did and making a big name for himself.

[rjbetty]

thats a good choice and proabably deserved too

here are others i'd like to see before some newbie

buemi, diresta, kobayashi

I agree with those before some rookie, except Vandoorne maybe. I can't see them having di Resta back, he was too miserable and always wanting to leave. Come to think of it, I wouldn't be surprised if Kevin Magnussen ends up there if FI still have McLaren links.

[Jag_Warrior]

Going out on a limb here: Palmer takes Maldonado's Lotus seat and Maldonado takes what oil money he has left to Force India, replacing the Williams bound Hulkenberg. The two names I've heard most often for Haas F1 are Jean-Eric Vergne and Esteban Gutierrez. But the driver who I would absolutely love to see go there would be Jenson Button. I doubt he'd (willingly) step down and go to a new/development team if McLaren drops him. But I'd love to see a good dude and a great driver end up at Haas. And in the Haas-Ferrari/Ferrari, who knows... he might wind up lapping the McLaren next season.

[rjbetty]

Now that the Ferrari seat is looking filled:

MERCEDES: Lewis Hamilton, Nico Rosberg
FERRARI: Sebastian Vettel, Valtteri Bottas
WILLIAMS: Felipe Massa, Nico Hulkenberg
RED BULL: Daniel Ricciardo, Daniil Kvyat
FORCE INDIA: Sergio Perez, Kevin Magnussen
LOTUS: Romain Grosjean, Pastor Maldonado

MCLAREN: Fernando Alonso, Jenson Button
TORO ROSSO: Max Verstappen, Carlos Sainz
SAUBER: Marcus Ericsson, Felipe Nasr

MANOR: ???, Stoffel Vandoorne
HAAS F1: Esteban Gutierrez, Jean-Eric Vergne


Only 3 changes among the main teams so far. I wonder if there will be any shocks this silly-season. We have been spoiled for the last 3 season with bombshells that tilted the earth off it's axis. Maybe this year will be quieter...? :/

Well I've stuck K-MAG in at Force India. He already has experience and McLaren links so seems a logical choice. Ron will farm him out to gain more experience and iron mistakes out, while Jenson can have one more year to help develop the car and get whatever results might come. Stoffel Vandoorne will benefit from being installed at Manor (if they survive) like Ricciardo did at HRT, since Manor also have links to McLaren. Plus Manor might be getting another Bianchi in the rookie.

Haas choose Gutierrez cos he's 'kinda' American. With Ferrari links, Vergne also gets a drive since he deserves it and Gene Haas has been saying he wants an experienced driver, having been unwilling to pay Kimi's huge wage demands, when by then Vergne would do at least as well anyway.

[anfield5]

Going out on a limb here: Palmer takes Maldonado's Lotus seat and Maldonado takes what oil money he has left to Force India, replacing the Williams bound Hulkenberg. The two names I've heard most often for Haas F1 are Jean-Eric Vergne and Esteban Gutierrez. But the driver who I would absolutely love to see go there would be Jenson Button. I doubt he'd (willingly) step down and go to a new/development team if McLaren drops him. But I'd love to see a good dude and a great driver end up at Haas. And in the Haas-Ferrari/Ferrari, who knows... he might wind up lapping the McLaren next season.

Haas have said they want an American driver, hence Alex Rossi

[jens]

It is being reported (Eurosport) that Wiliams has agreed to a 12million pound buyout of Bottas from Ferrari and the finn is set to replace kimi at Ferrari for 2016

while i can somewhat understand releasing kimi ( he never felt comfortable in his return for whatever reason) The move for bottas makes sense for ferrari but not so much for bottas. If there is anything his teammate could have told him was to warn him about the dangers of taking a job to be firmly a #2 driver. Bottas is a rising star and if anything should have stayed at williams to become "the man" then waited to see how the cars and market shakes out in 2017. Going to ferrari now means being compromised for vettel and being treated as 2nd fiddle.
As for Kimi. I see 2 options, either retirement or a move to Force India

I think the "second fiddle" part is overtrumpeted here. In the same way you can claim Rosberg and Button are #2 drivers in their current teams. It is not like Bottas will be given inferior equipment. If you go to big teams you must be prepared to face top drivers.

Though I do think Vettel is likely to be better than Bottas. Bottas has been about a match to Massa so far, which leaves me an impression that the Finn indeed is a notch below absolute top drivers, but can easily be your good #2. But F1 needs these kind of drivers as well. But he is a good addition to Ferrari. Räikkönen is already "past it", and Bottas is much younger with good future and seems to be performing pretty consistently by getting consistent points on board (aka Button).

All drivers want to move from small(ish) teams to big teams, Bottas is no exception. Williams is smaller than works teams and frankly I do think Williams has sort of peaked and is not going to threaten the top level more than they have been doing so far in 2014-15. Kimi also moved from Lotus to Ferrari, because Lotus had peaked and was not going to perform better than they had been performing in '12-'13. He was right about that one.

[jens]

I wanted to add that if you sign deals, you must be sort of predicting the future. It is of course hard, and some predictions you can get wrong (looking at you, McLaren-Honda!)

But drivers usually want to move to places, where they feel relatively safe long-term. And Ferrari is perhaps the safest team with big budget and stuff. Barrichello also moved from Stewart to Ferrari despite Stewart having a good season in 1999.

And also about predicting... it is difficult to do, but usually it is a pretty safe guess that smaller private teams are unlikely to challenge for championships. So if your aim is to win, you aim for factory works teams, even if projects do not work out.