Who Will Make The Chase

[muggle not]

These are the leaders today. Who do you think will drop out of the top 12 and who do you think will replace them. In all likely hood the top 8 are pretty well a cinch and maybe the top 9. The remaining 3 are up in the air. Mark martin will undoubtedly drop out and I think that Kyle Busch and Truex also will. My picks to replace them are newman, Jr, and a darkhorse, Bobby Labonte. What are your thoughts and picks.

1 JEFF GORDON ......................... 2059

2 JIMMIE JOHNSON ....................1907

3 MATT KENSETH .......................1869

4 DENNY HAMLIN ........................ 1842

5 JEFF BURTON ......................... 1704

6 CARL EDWARDS ......................1584

7 TONY STEWART.......................1573

8 CLINT BOWYER........................1525

9 KEVIN HARVICK .......................1518

10 KYLE BUSCH .........................1471

11 MARK MARTIN .......................1435

12 MARTIN TRUEX, JR ................1427

13 JAMIE MCMURRAY..................1411

14 DALE EARNHARDT, JR ...........1404

15 RYAN NEWMAN ......................1389

16 BOBBY LABONTE....................1340

17 KURT BUSCH...........................1339

18 GREG BIFFLE ........................1339

[Jonesi]

1 JEFF GORDON ......................... 2059
2 JIMMIE JOHNSON ....................1907
3 MATT KENSETH .......................1869
4 DENNY HAMLIN ........................ 1842
5 JEFF BURTON ......................... 1704
6 CARL EDWARDS ......................1584
7 TONY STEWART.......................1573
8 CLINT BOWYER........................1525
9 KEVIN HARVICK .......................1518
10 KYLE BUSCH .........................1471
11 MARK MARTIN .......................1435
12 MARTIN TRUEX, JR ................1427

13 JAMIE MCMURRAY..................1411
14 DALE EARNHARDT, JR ...........1404
15 RYAN NEWMAN ......................1389
16 BOBBY LABONTE....................1340
17 KURT BUSCH...........................1339
18 GREG BIFFLE ........................1339

Yes, Mark will definitely drop out of the top 12, he's only missed 3 races so far, with most of his scheduled weekends off over the summer, when Matt will be racing.
I think anyone from 8-12 are vulnerable to two bad races, and anyone from 13-18 could move up with 3-4 top 5s, quite doable for those drivers.
Clint Bowyer is the only driver in the top 18 without a win, and he hasn't gotten a top 5 all year (6 top 10s though) so he's probably the most at risk to drop out. If there's going to be a notable change I think it will either be because Roush (McMurray & Biffle) or Penske (Newman & Busch) got their CoT program together to compete with the Chevys. (I really don't expect Ford or Dodge to catch Chevy until a few races into next year, assuming their improved cyl heads work.)

[Cozzie]

My tips for the chase would be (in no particular order):
Jeff Gordon
Jimmie Johnson
Matt Kenseth
Denny Hamlin
Tony Stewart
Jeff Burton
Carl Edwards
Kyle Busch
Kurt Busch
Dale Earnhardt Jr.
Ryan Newman
One of the RCR guys

[harvick#1]

everyone in the top 12 now except Mark Martin and Kyle Busch, they will be replaced by Newman and Jooyner

[Hoss Ghoul]

Martin will obviously not make the chase, I don't understand the idiots asking him if he'll keep racing if he makes it, its a realistic impossibility, if not a mathematical one.

Off the top of my head, without analyzing the schedule(COT tracks...) I'd say I agree with Jonesi's assement regarding the 8-12 spots being in play.

Bifle has no shot of making the chase, he's run poorly and struggle with the COT and has not performed well enough otherwise. Even his typical best tracks(1.5 milers) I don't recall him being a force.

Labonte has kept his nose clean and run OK, but that is all. I'm impressed with his results and the upturn in Petty's operation, but he'd need no DNF's and some help to make the show, unlikely.

Mcmurray is probably having his best season, but it won't be enough. A couple of bad finishes or DNF's and he's gone. He had a few good runs early, but otherwise has been middle of the road. Rousch's lack of performance with the COT won't help.

Busch and Newman. I'd put them in the same boat. Penske's performance has gotten better this year, and without some bad luck/crashes and his idiocy Busch would be in good shape. Newman has been steadily improving of late. It's possible these two could finish 11-12 or 12-13, etc. Likely one of the two will make the chase.

Earnhardt has had some bad luck as well, crash not of his making at Daytona, flat tires at Dover. The 100 point penalty obviously was bad. On the other hand DEI as a whole is on the rise, and the team has clearly worked out the flat 1.5-2.0 mile track problems from 1-2 years ago.

So who's in and out?

Earnhardt in, either Busch or Newman in, possibly both.

Out: Martin...he's the only one I'm certain of though. Truex is on the rise, Busch though prone to mistakes is with a strong team and the COT races help his cause greatly. Bowyer and Harvick have run well, but Harvick especially has been inconsistent.

I'll say Martin and Busch.

[djarumdudley]

Hoss, you must've read my mind. agree with your analysis for the most. Martin will fall out, Kyle Busch and Harvick will be in trouble due to their inconsistency. Bowyer might be a question, but he's appeared solid and consistent enough to stay where he's at.

Newman's making a strong run that if continued will find him in the chase. Earnhardt Jr and Kurt Busch can overcome the penalties and make runs too. both need to avoid the bad luck that's befell them to this point. those three have the best oppurtunity. McMurray has a shot but i'm on the fence between the consistency and the Roush performance.

[harvick#1]

inconsistent for Harvick

last I saw He got caught up in Johnsons wreck at Lowe's and a engine miss at Dover, he still got top 20 finishes, and yesterday, he had no brakes and still got 11th.

and Bowyer 10th. all three RCR cars will be in the chase

[djarumdudley]

top 20 finishes aren't much to brag about considering the expectations for Harvick's team heading into 2007. after the 500 victory Harvick has been mediocre at best. that team was expected to be a top 5 championship contender all season, not fighting to maintain a chase position. sure the 29 has been bit by some bad luck, but there were a couple races where that car was out to lunch(Atlanta & Texas come to mind).

Harvick's 2007 finishes: 1,17,27,25,4,41,29,10,6,7,17,21,20,11
2 top 5, 5 top 10 in fourteen starts
consistent mediocrity is what i see from those numbers. only thing saving Harvick's season has been the ability to avoid sub-30th place finishes.

imho,rather disappointing from a team many expected would win the title this year. at this point the 29's saving grace could be the expanded chase field.

[jslone]

Sniffle and Kurt Busch.

[harvick#1]

top 20 finishes aren't much to brag about considering the expectations for Harvick's team heading into 2007. after the 500 victory Harvick has been mediocre at best. that team was expected to be a top 5 championship contender all season, not fighting to maintain a chase position. sure the 29 has been bit by some bad luck, but there were a couple races where that car was out to lunch(Atlanta & Texas come to mind).

Harvick's 2007 finishes: 1,17,27,25,4,41,29,10,6,7,17,21,20,11
2 top 5, 5 top 10 in fourteen starts
consistent mediocrity is what i see from those numbers. only thing saving Harvick's season has been the ability to avoid sub-30th place finishes.

imho,rather disappointing from a team many expected would win the title this year. at this point the 29's saving grace could be the expanded chase field.

hmm.

Cali - 2nd before flat tire forces to pitroad before G-W-C
Atlanta - top 15 before engine loses cylinder
Martinsville - top 5 before fuel pump fails, then foam on fire
Charlotte - well, had winning All Star car, until JJ decided to block everyone with a flat tire
Dover - was very fast but had a miss in the engine
Richmond - class of the field before the pitstop with Ragan (but still was flying but ran out of laps)

I say that they just don't have Hendrick's luck this year