2024 Prediction Challenge Results

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Hello everyone, I finally managed to compile the results for the 2024 predictions challenge. I was busier than usual this december so I only got around to it now but better late than never I guess.

Last year I made a post every day to have some kind of progression, however since the results come so late in the year I will post them all at once. Still there will be a rolling intermediate standing after every 5 questions to have some building suspense as you read. Here we go:

Starting off with the first 10 questions, these are pretty straight forward:

Who will be World Driver Champion?
15 points
Thierry Neuville

Who will win the most rallies?
15 points
Kalle Rovanperä

Who will win the most stages?
15 points
Sébastien Ogier

Who will be on the podium? Select all drivers who will stand on the overall podium.
5 points for each correct pick; -3 for each incorrect or missing pick (you can lose points on this question)
Thierry Neuville, Sébastien Ogier, Elfyn Evans, Esapekka Lappi, Adrien Fourmaux, Kalle Rovanperä, Takamoto Katsuta, Ott Tänak, Dani Sordo

Will a non-Rally1 car win a stage?
10 points
yes, famously Linnamäe Georg won SS5 #42 Brattby 2 in Rally Sweden

Standings so far:


Which Manufacturer will win the World Championship?
10 points
Toyota

Which Manufacturer will win the most rallies?
10 points
Toyota

Which Manufacturer will win the most stages?
10 points
Toyota

Which Manufacturer will win the most Power Stages?
10 points
Hyundai

Which Manufacturer will have the most podiums?
10 points
Toyota

Standings so far:

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The next 10 questions were about rallies and WRC2:

Which rally will have the most different stage winners?
15 points
Sweden

Which rally will have the most leader changes?
15 points
Tie between Croatia, Portugal, Italy, Finland, Greece

Which rally will have the smallest overall winning margin?
15 points
Italy 0.2s

Which rally will have the fewest Rally1 retirements and Rally1 cars using super rally?
15 points
Croatia - none

Which rally will have the longest planned special stage kilometers?
15 points
Kenya

Standings so far:


Which driver will win the WRC2 championship?
15 points
Sami Pajari

How many different drivers will win a rally in WRC2? (only official WRC2 entries count)
15 points for correct number
5 points for +/- 1
no points for incorrect guess
6 drivers won a WRC2 round

How many different drivers will be on the podium in WRC2? (only official WRC2 entries count)
15 points for correct number
5 points for +/- 1
no points for incorrect guess
17 different drivers stood on the WRC2 podium

We create the WRC2 manufacturers championship as follows:
- on each rally, from the final result consider only the best 2 official WRC2 entered cars of each manufacturer (Rally2 cars that did not nominate that round are not considered)
- make a classification with only these cars (for example if there are 5 cars of manufacturer A, only keep the best 2 and everyone else moves up)
- award points using the standard format (25-18-15-12-10-8-6-4-2-1)
Which manufacturer wins this championship?
15 points
this was close but Skoda won it, both Citroen and Toyota could have won it but Skoda was more consistently scoring points in all rounds

How many OVERALL WRC points will the WRC2 champion driver score this season? (this refers to points in the main WRC overall classification not the WRC2 classification - in 2023 Andreas Mikkelsen had 29)
15 points for exact number
5 points for +/- 1
Sami Pajari had 44 points, perhaps a bit more than expected due to his outings in the Rally1

Standings so far:

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Next five questions were about negative events and then 5 about the flow of the championship.

Pick a rally, you get points for every Rally1 car that retires or uses SuperRally for at least one stage.
5 points for each Rally1 car that retires or uses Super Rally
Finland awarded the most points: 30, but there were several rallies that awarded 20 or 25 points as well.

Which of these full time Rally1 drivers will complete the fewest total number of stages?
15 points
Fourmaux was the favourite pick here followed but Munster, but Katsuta was the right answer, only one person got it right.

If we give 1 black mark to the first Rally1 car to retire or use super rally on each rally, who has the most black marks? (first car determined by the last stage completed and road order)
15 points
Ott Tänak

Which rally will have the most cancelled stages? (only fully cancelled stages count, interrupted or stopped stages are not counted for this question)
15 points
there were no fully cancelled stages this year, although some were red flagged, this question awarded 0 points to everyone

Which of these 3 drivers will finish lowest in the overall WRC standings?
10 points
Ott Tänak

Standings so far:


At which rally will the title be decided?
15 points
Japan

How many drivers will lead the championship?
15 points for exact pick
5 points for +/- 1
Neuville did not give up the lead at any time this year.

After which rally will the Driver Champion not lose the lead anymore?
15 points
Since Monte-Carlo as per the previous question.

In how many rallies will the leader at the end of Saturday NOT be the overall rally winner?
15 points for exact pick
5 points for +/- 1
5 (Croatia, Italy, Finland, CER, Japan)

In how many rallies will the winner of the first stage also win the rally?
15 points for exact pick
5 points for +/- 1
1 (Latvia)

Standings so far:

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Final 10 questions about alternative ways to look at the championship and some precision questions at the end. Will they make the difference?

Gravel Champion - Who would be driver champion if only the gravel rallies counted?
15 points
Perhaps surprisingly still Neuville. Tanak was close but Neuville was more consistent in scoring over the summer.

An imaginary WRC driver is entered in 2024 called Ogipera. He scores the points of Ogier or Rovanperä when only one of them is entered in a rally. When both are entered in the same rally, Ogipera takes the lowest score from that rally (the points that Ogier or Rovanperä got, whichever is lower). Does Ogipera win the 2024 drivers title?
10 points
no he does not. While Ogier+Rovanpera had 7 wins they also had a lot of issues and because in common rallies the worse result is taken they didn't quite make it. By this calculation "Ogipera" had 203 points.

If no points were given for the overall standings in the rally and instead full points were given for the power stage (PS winner 25, down to 1 for 10th place), essentially making it a Power Stage championship, which driver would be champion?
15 points
Thierry Neuville again.

If 1 point was given for each stage win, in addition to all real life points, who would win the championship?
15 points
Thierry Neuville still wins, he only has 2 fewer stage wins than Ogier.

If drivers would drop their 3 worst scores of the season, would that change who wins the drivers world championship?
10 points
no, the gap is much smaller but the winner is the same

Standings so far:


How many points will the World Champion Driver have?
25 points minus difference between your pick and actual number, without getting negative points
example: WDC winner has 200 points
you predict 210, you get 25 - 10 = 15 points
you predict 180, you get 25 - 20 = 5 points
you predict 100, you get 25 - 100 = 0 points
(you can't lose points)
242

What will be the total rally completion percentage of Rally1 cars this season?
- cars that retire or use super rally are not considered to complete the rally for this question
25 points minus difference between your pick and actual number, without getting negative points
example: complete percentage is 80%
you predict 90% you get 25 - 10 = 15 points
you predict 60%, you get 25 - 20 = 5 points
you predict 20%, you get 25 - 60 = 0 points
(you can't lose points)
72%

Pick a rally. You get as many points as Fourmaux gets on that rally.
max 30 points How many rallies, when they race in Rally1 cars, will these part time drivers NOT complete in total?
Kalle Rovanperä, Sébastien Ogier, Esapekka Lappi, Dani Sordo, Andreas Mikkelsen
- a retirement or using super rally is considered not completing the rally
15 points for exact
5 points for +/- 1
best possible was 18 from Sweden

How many rallies, when they race in Rally1 cars, will these part time drivers NOT complete in total?
Kalle Rovanperä, Sébastien Ogier, Esapekka Lappi, Dani Sordo, Andreas Mikkelsen
- a retirement or using super rally is considered not completing the rally
15 points for exact
5 points for +/- 1
11

What will the largest overall rally winning margin be? Answer in seconds. The actual result will be rounded to the nearest second.
25 points minus difference between your pick and actual number, without getting negative points
example: winning margin is 90 seconds
you predict 100, you get 25 - 10 = 15 points
you predict 70, you get 25 - 20 = 5 points
you predict 20, you get 25 - 70 = 0 points
(you can't lose points)
107 seconds (Greece)

Tie Break Question: How many stage kilometers will the last rally of the 2024 season have planned?
no points for this question, can be used as a tie breaker in case of equal points, closest to the real answer wins
answer in kilometers with 2 decimal points eg: 274.31
302.59 km

Final Standings:


Congratulations to ZoomanSP!

Thanks everyone for participating!

[ZoomanSP206]

Wow, I would never have thought that! Thank you, it was fun!