Quote Originally Posted by Nitrodaze View Post
I think the Redbull is faster both on straights and the twisties. Mercedes have a more powerful engine but the regulation has prevented the car from putting that power out on to the tarmac due to the less efficient downforce at the rear of the car compared to Redbull. Redbull with lesser power has a higher downforce, hence more effective traction, hence better performance.

If Mercedes can find a way to increase the downforce at the rear of the car, they would instantly be the fastest car on the grid again. So it is a technical race against time for Mercedes to resolve the downforce deficiency they have before Redbull ick out a significant lead. Similarly, it is a race for Redbull to amass as many points as possible before Mercedes finds a solution, at least enough for it to be insurmountable for Mercedes.

This is why the win by Hamilton for Mercedes at Bahrain was so important. My guess is that the strategy by Mercedes would now be to steal as many wins as possible from Redbull when Redbull is not at the top of their game as they were at Bahrain. With Bottas tasked to neutralize Perez so that it is always a straight fight between Hamilton and Verstappen. But to have both cars on the podium when they are not fast enough to win. This would be their best strategy to buy as much time as possible for the engineers to resolve the problem without haemorrhaging too many points.

Redbull on the other hand, cannot afford to turn up at races not being a 100% prepared. As they have found that Mercedes is still very deadly even with a slower car. And they would be punished dearly for their inefficiencies. As they were in Bahrain. For Redbull, this is a battle of operational efficiency. that is exactly where Mercedes got them at the last race. The absence of Perez from the sharp end of the grid cost them dearly. As it gave Mercedes unchallenged strategic options that presented Hamilton the possibility to steal the win from Verstappen. The Redbull attitude at Bahrain appeared to be complacent on the fact that they knew they had the fastest car and under-estimating Hamilton and Mercedes in the process.

This is where both the second cars of Mercedes and Redbull must now perform at their very best. Bottas must defeat Perez and Hamilton must defeat Verstappen and the other way round from Redbull's perspective. Bottas and Perez cannot afford any sloppy weekend, as they would cost their teams dearly when they do as Redbull has found.

It is a proper fight between all aspect of both teams, from drivers to pitstops, to in-race strategies, to excellent car preparation and setup for the race. It is the whole operation that is competing between the two multiple constructors world championship teams of Mercedes and Redbull racing.
Yep, I think you are probably right, that is pretty much my take on it too. I think the Honda unit must be a lot closer than it has been though.
Trying to get my head around who this might affect most in race pace and whether that may make track position more important for the Red Bull.. but it's not an easy one to determine.

I just hope Red Bull have some real engine development potential to keep things close as Merc will most likely solve their rear end issue out fairly quickly.
I'm just praying for a competitive season for a change.. and hopefully one that goes down to the wire.