F1 Prediction before pre-season testing starts

[rjbetty]

Ok, though it's very early days yet, it must also be true to say that we are no longer completely clueless as to the general form of F1 2013.
So I thought about revisiting some predictions and seeing how they appear to stack up now.

RED BULL
My Prediction: Still be right up there, but Vettel to just lose out to Alonso and Button. Webber to slide back as he's now past his peak.
Reality: Looks like Newey and co were spinning a yarn about the law of diminishing returns and 2012 disrupting 2013 preparations, as early signs look like they've built a rocketship. May be right about Webber though.

FERRARI
My Prediction: A much better year, Massa to challenge Alonso and cause him to be grumpy.
Reality: Yup pretty much. And Massa has just outqualified Alonso, causing him to be grumpy.

MCLAREN:
My Prediction: To have the best car, with more of an advantage than in 2012! Both drivers to finish in top 6 in the WDC.
Reality: I should have known better...

LOTUS:
My Prediction: To move closer to the front. Grosjean to be more consistent than 2012 but maybe lose a little spark.
Reality: Hard to tell, but seems like it may be like this.

MERCEDES:
My Prediction: To not improve much/slip back. Hamilton to beat Rosberg overall.
Reality: They've actually improved quite a lot, and are pretty well up there with Red Bull and Ferrari, and ahead of Lotus!

SAUBER:
My Prediction: Initially said they would drop back, then changed to them having a rocketship to even beat Mercedes in Hulk's hands. Gutierrez to get a shock podium at some point, but not that much else.
Reality: It's a long season, but maybe possibly have slipped back, though only slightly.

FORCE INDIA
My Prediction: To slip back a little, to 8th in the WCC, possibly not far ahead of Toro Rosso either. Di Resta to beat Sutil (whoever is in 2nd car)
Reality: Look like the 5th or 6th best team early on! I'm convinced di Resta will beat Adrian over the season, fairly conclusively. Too much is made over his bad end to last year I think.

WILLIAMS
My Prediction: Initially that they will make another big step to be consistently a thorn in top teams' sides, and Pastor to challenge for a top 6 in the WDC, with improved consistency. Then changed to them slipping back just a little, probably behind Sauber too to 7th, but still ahead of Force India and probably Toro Rosso.
Reality: Pastor has said after Melbourne qualifying that the team are back to 2011. Guess all the pre-season stuff was (Red) Bull.

TORO ROSSO
My Prediction: To do better than people may think, but still probably being 9th overall, maybe beating Force India. Ricciardo to hopefully get a podium, but both drivers to make a step up and score plenty more points.
Reality: Hard to tell right now.

CATERHAM
My Prediction: To drop back further than in 2012, and behind Marussia.
Reality: Exactly that, and possibly even worse, though improvements may come for the European season.

MARUSSIA
My Prediction: To actually build a pretty decent car and probably beat Caterham, but get nowhere near the established teams
Reality: Early days yet, but looking like easily beating Caterham, and in Melbourne quali were actually encouragingly close to Q2, just +0.819 off 15th!

[rjbetty]

Right I thought I might bump a few old topics from the pre-season back to the top to see how things compare now and then. Hope that's ok.

[steveaki13]

Great idea Rj. (Do you mind being called Rj. Its just easier. Like typing Steve for me)

So lets see how I did.

1. Red Bull - Sad to say, I think they may win the titles again this season quite comfortably. Hope not as would like to see a different winner. Obviously Seb will finish ahead of Mark. .

Wow. Not the greatest surprise but I got that spot on. 10/10

2. Ferrari - I think Alonso will be the closest to Vettel again and maybe the only real threat. Massa? Who knows. I hope he continues like he ended last season. .

Alonso was closest to Seb. Another tick. Although not as close as I thought. Massa did have another who knows season. Pretty accurate. 8/10

3. Mclaren - Jenson could get in the title mix if the Mclaren is a good car. However I fear he will only win the odd race maybe. While Perez is a bit unknown and I predict wont win this season. .

erm........ yes moving on. 1/10

4. Mercedes- I think Lewis might win this year maybe even 2 GPs. I am not sure that the Car will be good enough to challenge. Rosberg? Well this may finally be a chance to see what hes made of. To many seasons at Williams against poor team mates in Nakajima & Wurz. Then Schumacher who all but matched him over the 3 years and its not quite clear how good Schumacher was. This will be a test. .

Lewis did win a race and the car wasn't good enough all season. Rosberg did prove himself. And predicted Mercedes roughly in the right place. Taking out the McLaren prediction. 7/10

5. Lotus - I fancy a decent season, but due to the competition they may finish a disappointing 5th. Kimi will race hard and secure maybe a win, but certainly a few podiums. Grosjean will get a podium but will still make errors. .

Decent season. Again apart from McLaren predicted there position in the championship compared too the front 3. Kimi did win a race and score podiums. Underated Grosjean though. 6/10

6. Williams - I fancy Williams to make a jump and finish with a semi decent season. No win like 2012 and probably no podiums due to the level of competition up front, but regular points scoring in 5th-10th places. Bottas to outscore Maldonado in his first season. .

hmm....... mostly all wrong except for Bottas outscoring Maldonado. 3/10

7. Sauber - I think Gutierrez may struggle for consistancy, and be outperformed easily by Hulkenberg who will score some big points but mostly 8th-10th places..

Gutierrez did struggle for consistency and was outperformed easily by Hulkenberg. He did score some big points. 9/10

8. Force India - I think they will struggle di Resta will not be able to perform in a conservative car and second driver also. A few points scoring races and general disappointment. .

di Resta didn't perform and they did struggle a bit, but did better than I thought. 4/10

9. Toro Rosso - I think they will push Force India, but the general lack of development willl see them only score a few points scoring positions. .

Not much to say. I got it right they would be down the bottom end. 7/10

10. Marussia - I am going to take a punt and say Chilton & ? may finish 11th once and secure 10th ahead of.

Didn't quite get 11th place, but did beat Caterham. 8/10

11. caterham - Poor drivers and lack of progress. .

Not such poor drivers, but still had them last. 7/10

12. Scorpian GP. While I know they wont take part. If they do they will be 10 seconds off the pace and fold after 4 events.[/quote]

No score for this one.

So I give myself ....... 70/110

Pretty good If I do say so myself. All except McLaren and Williams.

[jens]

Hmm, my thoughts...
Before the cars roll out in testing, I guess the safest guess to make is that Red Bull, McLaren and Ferrari should all be pretty competitive and competing for podiums at the very least. From what I know, their design teams are pretty similar to last three seasons, so we can make some guesses based on their previous form.

I don't know, what happened to McLaren's design team, but certainly they forgot to design a fast car. Though they have lost Paddy Lowe, but he left, when McLaren's 2013 design was already well on its way.

Red Bull should be in the mix. The only question is if it is again open till the last race or can they make a more convincing run like in 2011. The main difference between 2011 and 2010/12 is that RBR itself managed to have a more consistent car (even won at Monza) and very good reliability as well. So they managed to fully capitalize on their speed potential. If RBR hits the ground running like in 2011 without reliability issues (like in 2010) or tyre-warming issues (like in 2012), they may well run away from others.

The beginning of 2013 was a bit modest, but as suspected they have the most overall potential in the car and once it was unlocked, there was no looking back. About 2011-style season.

McLaren has designed pretty fast cars through 2010-12. Yes, even in 2011 it was pretty fast, but in both 2011 and 2012 they have had team operational issues and in both seasons there were arguments they should have won more races than they actually did. Everything is relative, but their team operations have been inferior to both RBR and Ferrari the last couple of years. Also despite the speed of the car, they have constantly had some consistency issues - in some conditions the car doesn't work very well (like at Silverstone last year). If this and the operational inferiority carries on, they are unlikely to win the title, even if the car's general speed is a match to RBR. Not to mention that neither of their drivers is a spectacular qualifying driver. This is where RBR clearly has an ace in their sleeves.

Team operations, consistency and drivers' qualifying speed was always a concern, but it was a bit academic since the car didn't have much speed anyway. I think the biggest fail of predictions.

Ferrari? We can read from the last three seasons that they usually lack some outright pace, but have rather exceptional reliability and team-work. We can expect Alonso to be on the podium often, but not get many wins on outright pace. If someone gets a consistent and spectacular run (like Vettel in 2011 or Button early 2009), Alonso will be left behind in the title race. But in a more inconsistent season he will be in the mix. Of course each year Ferrari is aiming to finally design the fastest car, but it doesn't seem that they quite have it in them with their current personnel (or relatively speaking, as long as RBR and McLaren retain their design teams). However, even with slight lack of pace they have many other qualities, which make them dangerous.

Usual story again, Ferrari lacks a bit of outright speed, but is strong in other aspects and Alonso got lots of podiums. Indeed someone did get a consistent and spectacular run (Vettel again), so Alonso couldn't keep up with him, but finished a comfortable second in WDC again.

The pretenders are Lotus and Mercedes. A lot is expected from them, but based on the longer trend they are not natural favourites at this stage. Lotus made a big impression last year. In some conditions (especially hot) they were on occasion genuinely capable of outracing other top teams... Was is the tyres or can they do it again? That's the big question. However, Lotus under the previous name of Renault was able to achieve podiums in 2010 and 2011 as well. So probably they will have some podium-pace at least sometimes, if not more often than that. But overall I don't expect them to win the title. Or even challenge till the end.

Underestimated Lotus. Yes, they got podiums and couldn't keep up with title challenge, but not only did they have podium-pace "sometimes", but they had it throughout the season till the very end. 14 podiums all in all (8 for KR, 6 for RG).

Mercedes has even more proving to do. There has been some serious reshuffling in the team. I get the impression it is all aimed at 2014, so miracles are not that likely in 2013.

"Miracle" maybe didn't happen in 2013, but they were still pretty good and much better than in 2012. In any case, better than I thought. Switched places with McLaren.

Sauber, Williams, Force India, also STR. Occasionally impressive, perhaps an occasional podium, but that's about it.

"Occasionally impressive" is what can be said about them. Force India in the first half of the season, Sauber/Hülkenberg in the second half, Ricciardo's top10 qualifying sessions and Williams' Canada qualifying and USA. No podiums though di Resta and Hulk both got one fourth place, so close enough.

[zako85]

In my opinion, McLaren will not go far in 2014. First problem is that their engine supplier is now also their competitor. Mercedes cars will always be able to test new things, while the customers will be getting older more stable engine design. The second issue is with drivers. Magnussen is still an unknown quantity in the F1 world. Even if he is really talented, a race win is the best he can expect IMHO. I think McLaren in 2014/2015 may be at the same stage as they were in 1995, when they had a fresh new engine and drivers, and both needed years of additional refinement before finally having a strong season again.

RedBull probably will do very well. Considering how they kept improving the 2013 car, I suspect they still have some tricks in store that may surprise others. The team's ability to win the constructor title may be in danger if Ricciardo does not score points as reliably as Webber. Mercedes probably will be strong too.

Ferrari.. probably not as strong as the top two teams. There were rumors that Ferrari isn't happy with 2014 engines because of sound and also higher fuel consumption. It's reasonable to assume that Ferrari may be behind in engine development.

There is too much financial uncertainty surrounding Lotus and Sauber to make any predictions. With Perez and Hulkenberg, Force India will have a strong driver lineup. If the team and pit crews don't screw up, FI could become a best of the rest team.

[555-04Q2]

Realistically, we will probably see more of the same in 2014 with RBR and Vettel dominating. But! The new engines are an unknown factor for next year so we could be in for a surprise. Let's hope we get a bit more challenging to RBR's throne from Macca, Ferrari, Mercedes, Lotus etc next year

[henners88]

I think if I tune in to Aus 2014 and Vettel cleans up, that might be my last race of the season. I'm not wasting my time watching another season of domination and if Mercedes or Ferrari bring another car that is nearly there but not quite, I'll be very disappointed. The BBC are really pushing this period of perfection from Red Bull with suggestions it doesn't come along in sport very often. I have to say I enjoy the hunt for perfection more than its achievement in all honesty. Its fantastic for the engineers who have delivered such a great car no doubt. I dare say its great for Vettel and his fans too. He seems to be the Man Utd of F1 at the moment and is acquiring fans like you wouldn't believe. Its good for merchandise but dull for me.

I want to see a title fight in 2014. Having two out of four years without an actual title fight is putting me off. I'll hold my hands up to that one. Purely selfish from my perspective I admit.

[AndyL]

In my opinion, McLaren will not go far in 2014. First problem is that their engine supplier is now also their competitor. Mercedes cars will always be able to test new things, while the customers will be getting older more stable engine design.

That won't be the case, there is still engine homologation for 2014. Mercedes, McLaren, Williams and Force India will get identical power unit specifications. The benefit to the factory team will be that during this year, they will have been able to influence the packaging of the engine to suit their car design, but presumably the customer teams will at least have been told what they will be getting in terms of packaging.

[rjbetty]

I think if I tune in to Aus 2014 and Vettel cleans up, that might be my last race of the season. I'm not wasting my time watching another season of domination and if Mercedes or Ferrari bring another car that is nearly there but not quite, I'll be very disappointed. The BBC are really pushing this period of perfection from Red Bull with suggestions it doesn't come along in sport very often. I have to say I enjoy the hunt for perfection more than its achievement in all honesty. Its fantastic for the engineers who have delivered such a great car no doubt. I dare say its great for Vettel and his fans too. He seems to be the Man Utd of F1 at the moment and is acquiring fans like you wouldn't believe. Its good for merchandise but dull for me.

I want to see a title fight in 2014. Having two out of four years without an actual title fight is putting me off. I'll hold my hands up to that one. Purely selfish from my perspective I admit.

Henners, I'd give it more than 1 race. Maybe a good example is the WRC between 2002-2003, which I was very interested in at the time. No-one at the time could see past Marcus Gronholm and Peugeot after cleaning up in 2002 (scoring more than double the points of anyone else). When he then led the season-opening Monte Carlo Rally in 2003 (his weakest round) it all looked utterly sewn up. Yet it turned out very different as the season wore on and he dropped out of contention some time before the final round, ending up only 6th overall on 46pts to Solberg's 72.

Though it won't be quite like that for Vettel, it does show that maybe foreboding pace in the first round won't necessarily mean a dud season.

There you go. I will go and see if I can find some more straws for you to clutch.

[driveace]

Well unless all the teams do not UP their game by a massive amount,and Red Bulls are quick in testing out of the box in 2014,then I can see Formula 1 losing its popularity.
As a lot of viewers this year have said .,you watch the start,Vettel leads into the first corner.Then I turn off,go and wash the cars ,cut the lawns,and then in 1 and a half hours go back in and watch the finish.
And in a lot of cases ,I dont even watch the finish ,I click on Teletext.
Sky will find its viewing figures will fall too
I hope the Mercs will be quick ,although I feel that Nico is the favorite there,and Mclaren ,well I am baffled as to why they sacked the best driver,Lotus obviously short of dosh so takes on Maldonardo ,its really time some of the middle group like Sauber,Force India,stsrted to improve or did a Brawn and come up with some interesting developement that would take them up the field .