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FXUS62 KMLB 102029
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
329 PM EST WED FEB 10 2010

.DISCUSSION...

...VERY COLD TONIGHT WITH LOW WIND CHILLS AREAWIDE AND FREEZING TO
NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE...

CURRENT-TONIGHT...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES HAVE STRUGGLED TO REACH
FORECAST HIGHS SO FAR TODAY. CURRENT READINGS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA SHOW LOWER 50S NORTH OF A LINE FROM SOUTH LAKE COUNTY TO
NORTH BREVARD COUNTY. FURTHER SOUTH MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S CAN BE FOUND
AND TO 60 DEGREES IN SOUTH OKEECHOBEE COUNTY AND ALONG THE TREASURE
COAST.

TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION TO BEGIN TO RELAX SLIGHTLY
THIS EVENING...THOUGH CURRENT BREEZY CONDITIONS 15-20 MPH NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL ONLY FALL TO AROUND 10 MPH ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL NOT BE ABLE TO DECOUPLE.

POTENT LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE UP THE NORTH ATLC SEABOARD
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS DRIFTS SLIGHTLY EASTWARD
OVERNIGHT WITH ASSOCIATED RIDGE NOSING INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
SKIES EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT...THOUGH THERE MIGHT
BE A SCATTERED INTRUSION OF HIGH CLOUDINESS LATE.

STRONG COLD/DRY AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES OVER THE AREA FOR AT LEAST
ONE MORE PERIOD (TONIGHT). OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WIDESPREAD IN THE MIDDLE 30S WITH LOWER 30S IN NORMALLY COLD
LOCATIONS. A FREEZE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF LAKE AND
VOLUSIA COUNTIES FROM 2AM TONIGHT UNTIL 8AM THU MORNING. DURATIONS
OF 4 TO 6 HOURS OF UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ARE LIKELY OVER LAKE AND
INLAND VOLUSIA COUNTIES. ACROSS COASTAL VOLUSIA COUNTY EXPECT LOWS
30-32 FOR 2 TO 4 HOURS. THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT FOR VERY LOW
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF INTRUSION FROM
HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE WEST TOWARD DAYBREAK.

A WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1AM TONIGHT UNTIL 10AM
THU MORNING FOR ALL OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. WIND CHILL READINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE MIDDLE/UPPER 20S FOR SEVERAL HOURS...WITH
AREAS OF LAKE...VOLUSIA COUNTIES SEEING A FEW HOURS OF READINGS IN
THE LOWER 20S FOR WIND CHILLS.

THU...A VERY CHILLY...OR IF YOU PREFER...A VERY COLD START TO THE
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN OVER THE
REGION AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE OVER SOUTHEAST
TEXAS. WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTHWESTERLY BETWEEN 10 AND 15 MPH THROUGH
THE DAY. WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE ONLY A SMALL GRADUAL WARM-UP FROM THE
PREVIOUS 24 HOURS AS THE COLD AIR ADVECTION SLOWLY WEAKENS OVER THE
AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW CLIMO WITH UPPER 50S NORTH
AND ACROSS THE INTERIOR...TO NEAR 60 DEGREES ACROSS BREVARD COUNTY
WITH LOWER 60S ALONG THE TREASURE COAST. SOME HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL BEGIN TO INVADE ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE DAY.

FRI-SAT...STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET WILL BRING POWERFUL AND FAST-
MOVING SFC LOW ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTHERN HALF OF FL
FRIDAY AND EARLY FRI NIGHT. 12Z GFS APPEARS TO HAVE SPED UP THE
LOW A BIT AND IS A COUPLE MB LOWER/STRONGER THAN 12Z ECMWF BUT
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING LOW TRACK ROUGHLY ACROSS LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. BULK OF THE RAIN STILL LOOKS TO OCCUR DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS BUT SHOULD BEGIN ACROSS
LAKE/VOLUSIA COUNTIES EARLY IN THE MORNING. VERY STRONG ISENTROPIC
LIFT WILL PROMOTE WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM RAIN WITH ONE HALF INCH
ACCUMULATIONS COMMON. UP TO 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOME
LOCATIONS. HAVE RAISED POPS FOR FRIDAY TO 70% AND ULTIMATELY WE
WILL PROBABLY GO 100% ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AS WE GET CLOSER. NO
FROZEN PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS EC FL ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE
A COLD RAIN...WITH TEMPS IN THE 50S ORLANDO NORTHWARD. TREASURE
COAST MAY BREAK INTO THE LOWER 70S.

DESPITE IMPRESSIVE WIND FIELDS...INSTABILITY WILL BE SORELY
LACKING AS TRACK OF SFC LOW KEEPS WARM SECTOR SUPPRESSED TO OUR
SOUTH. SO HAVE NOT INTRODUCED THUNDER TO THE FORECAST AND SEVERE
THREAT IS NOT APPRECIABLE AT THIS TIME. HIGH PRES REBUILDING
ACROSS SERN CONUS/FL WL KEEP TEMPS COOL AGN ON SAT/SAT NGT. 12Z
MOS GUIDANCE IS TRENDING COLDER FOR SUNDAY MORNING WITH NEAR
FREEZING TEMPS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH LAKE/VOLUSIA COUNTIES. WILL
WAIT TO SEE IF FUTURE MODEL RUNS CONCUR BEFORE LOWERING TEMPS.

SUN-TUE...HIGH PRES OVER FL SUN GETS NUDGED SWD BY SUN
NGT...AHEAD OF ANOTHER FAST MOVING COOL FROPA ON MONDAY. FRONTAL
BDRY MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SPOTTY LGT SHRA...HOWEVER PRECIP
AMOUNTS/RAIN CHCS NOT ALL THAT GREAT. POST-FRONTAL HIGH PRES
BUILDING TWD FL WILL KEEP TEMPS BELOW CLIMO MON-TUE...THOUGH
PLEASANT DAYTIME MAXES (60S) WITH COOL NIGHTTIME MINS (A FEW DEGS
EITHER SIDE OF 40F).