Actually Accuweather's prediction is giving -5 to -13 °C for Friday 14th when the rally properly starts, and snowfall for Saturday.
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Actually Accuweather's prediction is giving -5 to -13 °C for Friday 14th when the rally properly starts, and snowfall for Saturday.
Looks like several minusdegrees over nights for coming 10 days, will be enough. If rally week will be cold maybe problems decreases.
Too far ahead to say, It was supposed to have snowed "allot" this week too and very cold.Quote:
Originally Posted by AnttiL
Seems like it will be warm the next couple of days and then colder from Sunday evening with possible warmer again towards the end of next week but too early to be certain.
Isn't accuweather's predictions a bit of "avg. during x-amount of years" ? Felt like that when I checked it for a holiday, wasn't until 5-6 days before I was going it changed to be in line with all the other forecasts.Quote:
Originally Posted by AnttiL
Russian forecast isnt that optimistic...
Attachment 1922
But the russians doesn't agree with yr https://www.yr.no/place/Sweden/V%C3%...rsby/long.html
Gismeteo hasn`t been reliable for long years now.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EPmJYvYX...jpg&name=small
Torntorp today
I can say the same for yr.no - have received nothing but false forecasts for years. It used to be very reliable service but changed many years ago.Quote:
Originally Posted by linni
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I think complaining about bad weather forecasting is a common thing for generations lol. Weather changes, often unexpectedlyQuote:
Originally Posted by cali
AccuWeather is fairly wrong as it bases itself on the average temperatures of the past.
Yr at least tells you what forecast is very uncertain etc
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Yr is correct where i work in Norway, been snowing for three days here now and 20-25cm. Had rain almost to the minute when I looked at the radar in Mökkipëra on year!
Agree, Yr is not perfect, but mostly you can trust it. Gismeteo used to be very precise, but about 8 -10 years ago they changed their modelling algorhytms and after that things went sideways.Quote:
Originally Posted by cali
Yr used to be good for our country but in the last two or three years it became much worse. Now it's not very reliable at least for here.
Yr has become less accurate, but still better than Accuweather, which is far from accurate. But this winter it doesn't matter which service you follow, longer than two day forecast rarely stays the same.
Yes, I have yet to find a reliable weather forecast provider unless it's Bluuford
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You need to make him an offer, he can't refuse :DQuote:
Originally Posted by cali
YR.no is a web interface presenting results of different models depending on where you are.
For NO, SWE and FIN it presents results of AROME MEPS (and AROME Arctic north of Scandinavia) models. This is a cooperation model developed by meteorological institutes of the 3 countries and is the most accurate and detailed (in horizontal resolution) model for that area.
For other countries YR interface gives results of ECMWF operational model (which sits in England and is a cooperation of just about all European countries). The ECMWF model has much lower horizontal resolution and is typically less adjusted to "local/country" specific conditions, so by definition it should be less accurate. The ECMWF operational prediction model is available to all countries that are part of the ECMWF and is often used as a starting point of their own models.
Therefore YR.no results outside of Scandinavia should basically always be less accurate than local models. If they are not it reflects poorly on the local models. Off course this is valid only on a statistical basis and not for each moment. It can also be location dependent.
What happened some years ago when YR was first introduced is that people from a lot of countries outside of Scandinavia started using it because the web-interfaces from their local forecasts were hopelessly bad or non-existing in comparison. Often this was "by design" since the local meteorological institutes sold their detailed predictions for income.
EDIT: The results from the global American GFS model are also available at multiple sites, but those have similar resolution issues as ECMWF one. But off course at a given point of time they can be both better or worse than ECMWF or local models.
That explains why scandinavians receive accurate results and the rest of us are still struggling to get reliable forecasts. Thanks!Quote:
Originally Posted by mknight
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Well to me yr.no for example predicts plus weather for most of next week. So lets see. Still holding on my decision on whatever to go or not.
Weather in Scandinavia is generally very unpredictable but this winter it has been more unpredictable then usual. At the moment it looks like lots of warm weather for the next 10 days
with some colder days too. Forecast for end of next week is to reliable and will likely change, however the trend the past couple of weeks have been predictions of snow and colder weather
which haven't been the case and instead warmer weaher. So I think there will be a few cancelled stages but that they will (try to) go on with the rally at all costs. If the cancel it there won't be a Swedish Rally next year.
Weather forecasts can´t predict rallyweek as yet.
I´d use smhi.se chose "vädret" and "10-dygns prognos" type Torsby or Hagfors and you get day by day 10 days forecast.
Frozen. Good.
https://www.facebook.com/26411092363...4035/?vh=e&d=n
Hi! The spot in the 0:45 second.... where is it?
Thanks
Middle of RöjdenQuote:
Originally Posted by diegoalju
...which is not driven this yearQuote:
Originally Posted by SubaruNorway
Which is a shame because It's become one of the classics and my favorite stage walking across the lake and filming places like the one below, hopefully Nyckelvattnet has something good, haven't seen any video's of it yet or much photo's.
Hof-Finnskog
https://scontent-hel2-1.xx.fbcdn.net...0d&oe=5ED6B95E
https://scontent-hel2-1.xx.fbcdn.net...c9&oe=5ECD8962
https://scontent-hel2-1.xx.fbcdn.net...db&oe=5EBDCCA9
Finnskogen
https://scontent-hel2-1.xx.fbcdn.net...5a&oe=5ED34A05
https://scontent-hel2-1.xx.fbcdn.net...5e&oe=5ED9B8A1
Nyckelvattnet
https://scontent-hel2-1.xx.fbcdn.net...56&oe=5EC4977D
https://scontent-hel2-1.xx.fbcdn.net...38&oe=5EBD647D
Right now it's looking ok with some melting today ahead of the cold next 4 days which could create ice. The problem is that long term predictions show plus degrees during nights next weekend.... but those are not to be trusted much until Wednesday-Thursday.
The Saturday stages are the most troublesome...this is Hagfors's last corner.
https://scontent-hel2-1.xx.fbcdn.net...3b&oe=5ED601FA
Agree that Friday & Sunday stages look like will be ok. Issue being Saturday stages but should hopefully still be enough kms to keep the rally running.Quote:
Originally Posted by AnttiL
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cE8SD3upCwM
Back in 2000 it seems like they drove in conditions that were far from ideal as well... Maybe taking the risk to destroy the roads is the most interesting option at this point. Could be better than refunding spectators, entrants, disappointed sponsors etc, and putting an end to Rally Sweden...
Looks like at the end of the next week the weathers gonna be very warm again.
wasnt it tomorrow that they will decide if it goes ahead or not?
Have anyone got their rally passes yet?
Usually they ship them out in January, except 3 - 4 years ago, when they did it one week before the rally.
Yes on facebook group there was people showing their passes.Quote:
Originally Posted by linni
Found on payment confirmation email:
All deliveries are made week 5 when the RallyMagazine and entry lists are ready
So arrival probably next week.
I can see both sides of it. On one side I agree with what you say that sponsors/TV-companies, teams, specators can't be let down and etc. However if you look upon it from the other side, if the roads gets too damagedQuote:
Originally Posted by tommeke_B
the likely hood of being allowed to used those roads next year will become slimmer (even if the rally pays for restoration of the roads). That said I really don't see them cancelling. Step 1 is to cancel the stages that are in
the worst condition and then if needed and if possible a stage could be rerun once on another day just to get the necessary KM. Step 2 would be to cancel the historic class either completely or on some stages.
Finnskogen (one of the Norway stages)
https://scontent-hel2-1.xx.fbcdn.net...94&oe=5EC11CED
Hagfors (Saturday)
https://scontent-hel2-1.xx.fbcdn.net...89&oe=5EDC0723
https://scontent-hel2-1.xx.fbcdn.net...d0&oe=5EC3079F
https://scontent-hel2-1.xx.fbcdn.net...88&oe=5ECAC02A
Vargåsen (Saturday)
https://scontent-hel2-1.xx.fbcdn.net...13&oe=5ECF9170