At least... This would have been a proper shit show without them.
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My weather app shows temperatures rising after today and heavy rain not snow. Recce in the snow is far from ideal if it doesnt stay.
I still think Evans is favourite as whatever its like he doesnt need to push for the win like Ogier does (and the others will).
You don't "pick your first or second choice". It's the choices that the tyres manufactures make. For example, Michelin's first choice is the Pilot Sport H5. Crews can use a maximum of 24 tyres of this model.
So, there is no way that teams can choose the "wet" tyres as their first choice. Only a maximum of 12 tyres can be used throughout the whole rally.
Also problem of wet tyres is not down only to wear. They work better in a lower temperature, so if it's too dry temperature will build up too fast and "tyres will start to move a lot".
I think that this number of max tyre changes is mainly used to calculated maximum allocation per event, as it's written on that article in Sporting Regulations.
And if I am not mistaken, WRC cars can drive without spare tyres (Tanak drove Sunday in Turkey 2019 without them).
Temperature goes both ways. If it's too dry/too hot the tire is worn more and "unstable" (too soft).
But if it's too cold the tire is too stiff and doesn't work. Hence my point that for R5s either one of Michelin/Pirelli can work better in colder conditions than the other. Normally these tires are used on rallies like Germany with 15+ degrees and rain, not in 3-4 degrees.
This is actually really interesting point, with service after each 13-16 km stage on circuit, will some drivers risk running without spare?
If they then get a puncture the car will not actually be on a "public road" road section, so they can drive without rubber on rim? (I think Meeke in Portugal 2018 got penalty anyway?)
So when predictions are even harder donīt forget Pickems!
Meeke in Portugal 2018 had two of his five tyres broken. One of them was only a rim, the other was slowly delaminating. On the way to service he had to do a short street stage. He decided to switch the rim only for this stage to save the delaminating tyre for liaisons where it was necessary to remain intact. After this it was changed to the rules that you need to start a stage with four intact wheels. I don't think he got a penalty though, if not for touching chicanes.
But yeah, I don't think anyone will need spares on Friday and Sunday. No public road driving on the way.