2014 F1 season prediction

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Originally Posted by rjbetty

The other thing I didn't mention was that I was quite conservative with reliability levels in the game. I did not have crazy races with 3 finishers, but rather I tried to be as realistic as possible, and sure enough, every race I had varied between 12-18 finishers, a sensible and realistic amount.

Amazingly, the reliability has been even better than my conservative estimates and if China is anything to go by, we are already back to 2013 levels (sigh)...

That is another thing I have gotten very wrong over the years, and am now learning from. The amount of unreliability and incidents was always more outlandish in my feelings and thoughts before the season, but during the season was not the case at all.

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I think throughout the years I also have done the miscalculation of predicting more reliability problems than there really were.

I have made one conclusion on the back of the 2014 Chinese GP and mere 2 retirements. That the era of half of the field retiring (like 10+ years ago) is forever gone. If it didn't happen in 2014, it ain't ever happen again.

Which means the era of pushing technology to the limits, which sees the increase in technical troubles, is over. Nowadays everything is about saving and long-life components. And considering the world developments and how important economical use of technology and resources has become, this is the future. So almost all of the grid finishing races will be a norm till unforeseen future.

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Originally Posted by rjbetty

As for Perez v Hulkenberg, did anyone read that article on skysports, which wondered if paradoxically, Nico drives too much like a top team driver, without the "carpe diem" moments that Perez can have?

That is thought provoking, but I am thinking maybe I disagree. What is the use of Perez having just a small spattering of great races when he's comparatively mediocre the rest of the time? I also think this does a dis-service to Hulkenberg: I find it hard to see how he's merely a solid driver when he has produced moments like Monza 2013 (probably Korea too), on course to win Brazil 2012 on merit, in a Force India(!) and pole position for Williams in 2010.

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I haven't seen the article but if it implies that Hulk loses out by not having the "carpe diem" moments then I would have to disagree.

I'm a big fan of both drivers and Nico just quietly gets it done. It's not uncommon to not really notice him much during a race yet he finishes well. Consistency and solid times gets him to the right end of the pack.

Sergio on the other hand seems less consistent, and it sometimes seems that he has to fight harder for passes and such to get a good finish. This and sometimes the use of tire strategy (which is probably just as much influenced by the team) can get him to the right end of the pack at times.

As strange as it seems, often watching Sergio is more fun than watching Nico finish higher. He has to have those moments or he wouldn't get towards the front. Nico seizes the entire race in a more calm manner, and is less likely to push hard passes that might risk the car.


But I hope both of them have a great season. Force India seems to be doing well, and both are worthy of good cars probably better than what they are driving. It's shocking that Hulk didn't get picked up by Ferrari, and as it turns out probably lucky for Sergio that McLaren was stupid enough to blame the drivers for their turd and get rid of him.

I wouldn't be surprised if history shows both drivers ending up in the top teams.

Hülkenberg certainly has had his moments, like mentioned in the Sauber last year. Qualifying 3rd at Monza was a stunner.

As for criticism, the goal of racing drivers is to collect as many points as possible over a full season. And in fulfilling that goal Hülkenberg is very efficient. Based on current situation he is right there battling with Alonso and the Red Bulls for best of the rest position behind the Mercedes' in the championship.

Even if he doesn't have a true standout drive out of the first four races this year yet, he is still at least on the level of prime form Heidfeld/Button, which is also a very good level, let's not underestimate that. Just to recall Heidfeld from 2007 or Button from 2011. The "quiet achiever" as the saying goes.

As for Pérez, I think chances are his inconsistency is likely to relegate him into having a midfield career for the rest of his career. Of course based on how team performances fluctuate it is hard to make conclusive claims, looking at how good Force India has been so far this year. But it is hard to see him in contention for seats, which are considered to be the prime places with biggest competition, like Red Bull, Mercedes or Ferrari.

I don't think I predicted Mercedes to be dominant.

My thoughts on 2014 so far.

Mercedes - I never saw such a level of domination before the season began. It seems like they should win every race 1-2 that they finish for now, but Red Bull could challenge them for race wins later in the season. Lewis appears to match my expectation that he would beat Rosberg generally, despite still being behind due to his retirement.


Red Bull - I predicted they would win the Championship again this season but its appearing to be unlikely they can recover the deficit. I still saw Vettel comfortably beating Ricciardo, but it looks like the Australian is really going to push Seb hard.


Ferrari - I thought Alonso and Ferrari might have been in a position to challenge this season but it looks as if they are worse than ever, and quickly returning to early/mid 90s form. Kimi appears struggling for any pace and only Alonso's brilliant drive in China has moved them forward from midfield.

McLaren - After a hopeless 2013 I thought that 2014 had improved after the 2-3 in Australia but since then its a return to 2013 form. Could it be that McLaren have produced a dog for the second year running.

Force India - The car looks to be third fastest now and even faster than Red Bull at times. Hulkenberg has had consistant class, while Perez has struggled but then got it together in the last couple of races.

Williams - The car isn't as fast as we thought in Oz, but it is clearly still faster than I feared. It just seems that they are harder on tyres and seem a bit more hit and miss. Hence why the team has not gained the results they deserve.
Massa & Bottas seem ultimately well matched to me.

Toro Rosso - They have scored more they I thought they would, but that could be because of other cars retiring. Kyvat has been far better than we feared, I remember a lot of doom predicted about him. Vergne is decent as per.

Sauber - Wow. Lucky I chose to give them the boot in my FGP team, the car is heavy, slow and unreliable. It appears the Sauber team are in a rut in 2014. I hope they can score some points soon and keep going into 2015. Sutil has looked really average in my opinion this season without Force India. While Gutierrez has done nothing special.

Lotus - No one predicted just hope dopey there season would start off. I mean the first two races they could barely get a car to the finish of any session. Since then they have improved reliability and speed. They are creeping closer and closer to the points. I hope they can keep going.


Marussia - I think most of us predicted a season with Marussia and Caterham still at the back, but I thought with the changes they might have found a point or two in the early races. However it seems that no more than 2 cars will retire from now on. I think It will be an interesting battle all season between Bianchi and Kobayashi. Bianchi has actually made some poor errors so far. Crashing into Maldonado in Malaysia and Sutil twice in Bahrain. While Chilton has done a fine job. Finishing 13th twice I think and finishing every race to continue his 22 or 23 race finishing streak.

Caterham - As with Marussia I predicted them to struggle again, but Kobayashi has mixed it with the lower midfield on occasions. I would love to see one of the backmarkers with Merc Power next year. It might actually close the gap to the midfield.


Those are my thoughts compare to my predictions after the early rounds.

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Originally Posted by jens

As for Pérez, I think chances are his inconsistency is likely to relegate him into having a midfield career for the rest of his career. Of course based on how team performances fluctuate it is hard to make conclusive claims, looking at how good Force India has been so far this year. But it is hard to see him in contention for seats, which are considered to be the prime places with biggest competition, like Red Bull, Mercedes or Ferrari.

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Your so right Jens.

Look at his podium in Bahrain. Brilliant and yet the first two rounds he was anonymous.

As for Hulkenberg. He's one of those drivers who I really want to get a shot soon at a top car. I would hate him to miss out on a top level career because he never lands a decent drive.

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Originally Posted by jens

- Red Bull getting a below-par start like they have done in the past + reliability issues with Renault package. I had Vettel only 5th in the WDC behind Mercedes and Ferrari drivers after Monza. They are strong though and can never be underestimated. They came to top form in the final phase again.

- I got Lotus as one, who gets away slowly with new regs, compounded by financial issues. A bit like BAR was nowhere in early 2005 after getting regular podiums in 2004. In the end of the season Lotus recovers somewhat, like the other cash-strapped Sauber did in 2013.

I think early season can bring us a few fascinating individual race results. The only (usual) midfield runner I predicted to get podium finishes, was Force India

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This looks pretty good now Jens!

Well, now I can say... The prediction wasn't very good.:p: Not a big surprise before major regulation changes! But we remember how radically things have changed. At the end of last year Red Bull and Lotus were at the front, Sauber decent, while Williams was near the back. It would have been very bold to predict what is now without prior evidence.

Another issue with this year is that competition trends are very consistent. I predicted both Red Bull and Lotus to have an upward performance curve during the season, but none of this is happening. All the teams are roughly where they were in the beginning. Even Sauber doesn't have much chance of opening the pointscore.

Contrast to 2009, when after big reg changes the performance trends shifted significantly during the season. However, probably has to do with the type of changes and that in-season power unit development is banned, while during 2009 aerodynamic development, key of the year, was certainly as fast as ever.

Were I to predict 2015 though... I expect it to be more like a "status quo" year as opposed to 2014, which everyone knew would be a big year for changes, just nobody was sure which way it would go.

The season has pretty much basically ended in the next few days so I thought I´d start dragging up these old chestnuts we laid before the season. We can laugh at who´s predictions were the most terrible! To start with, I have minardi's prediction (hey I wonder what happened to him)

I have edited his post a little and added my comments in brackets.

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Originally Posted by minardi

Going to quickly get my short predictions in just before the green line goes on for the start of testing.

Mercedes
A close season between Red Bull and Mercedes, (no)
but the Silver Arrows edge both championships (yep),
with Hamilton taking his second crown… just (We'll see!).
Hamilton and Rosberg are close all year but Rosberg gets the bad luck of the team, allowing Hamilton to be #1 in the run up to the finale. (Haha got that COMPLETELY the wrong way round!!)

Red Bull
As said before, very close all year between the Red Bulls and Mercedes, (not quite)
but Vettel's car finally gets the bad luck with the car that MW had the past few seasons, (WOW great call!)
Ricciardo has good performances and is closer to Vettel at points than expected, but consistency/experience means Vettel still has a clear advantage over him over the season. (Well I guess you were closer than most of us there).

Ferrari
A fast car and not far off the top two, (no)
but let down by being a little down in horsepower, (Wow, understatement much?!!)

Alonso wins in Monaco, and spurred on by inter-team rivalry, outscores the Finn over the season. The two have some very close encounters where body work comes off, with a slanging match over the radio and post-race ensuing. (no)

McLaren
A better car than last year, which isn't hard, but just down on the pace over the top three. They'll return to the podium this year, but not quite enough to return to the top step. (yup good call)

Button and Magnussen quality near each other all season, with Button having the more points in the first half, but Magnussen putting in better weekend performances in the second half. (pretty close prediction)
but paddock is impressed with Magnussen and hope he can build on a solid (not spectacular) first season. (yep pretty much that)

Force India
Hulkenberg finally makes the right move as Sauber languish towards the back, and Lotus' troubles continue (more on that later). (Good call)

Although the top four are a clear top four, Force India finish in 5th thanks to a couple of podiums due to reliability and generally good drives from Perez and Hulkenberg who both shine and mix it with the McLarens at time at particular circuits. (er, sorta but not really)

While Perez gets his mojo back at times, Hulkenberg shines brightest, and everyone is still bemused when he still doesn't get snapped up by the big four. (ditto)

Williams
Williams return to the points on a more regular basis than last year (again... not hard) thanks to a consistent but not spectacular car. (sometimes it seems more spectacular but not consistent but I don't know)

Massa and Bottas are close all year alternating most weekends. (on pure pace but not in points)
Massa gets a podium at some point thanks to a crazy race, and the little Brazilian couldn't look any happier. (haha yep, I didn't see him getting a podium at this point)

Toro Rosso
Another season of the same for STR as they show promise at times but mostly go out slap bang in the middle of Q2, except for the odd race where they show no pace, and Kyvat goes out in Q1, then the races where they seemingly pull it out of the bag, and Kyvat squeezes into Q3. Kyvat outscores Vergne despite being up and down all year. (yeah kinda)

Lotus
Money, money, money... or lack of it dogs the Lotus boys all year. The car is unreliable and a pig to drive, and they're always playing catch up, with a B-spec car talked about but never quite emerging. Maldonado has a horror of a year running into other cars, and looks a picture of frustration and uninterest all season. Grosjean easily performs better, but struggles with the car, and his late-2013 form is forgotten, causing frustration to settle in a couple of times. (pretty much spot on! Nice one)

Sauber
The car struggles from Day 1, ...the car is slow and down on power.(YES!)
Sutil outperforms Guttierez all season, (not sure)
and picks up a few points, (um nope not so far...)
but a disaster of a season. Sirotkin is talked about mid-season replacing Sutil but never quite happens as the team struggle with money. (there was talk of van der Garde taking over)

Marussia
Marussia scores two points!! A chaotic race with a large number of retirees, allow Bianchi to take a 9th place early in the season. (BLOODY HELL! You win a prize! The cucumber sandwich Taz agreed to make me if Nico wins)

Chilton is nowhere. The car is better than the Caterham but still off the rest of the field, but Bianchi gets something out of the car and looks impressive in the races. (yeah pretty much)

Caterham
Caterham finish last again and the talk of a takeover emerges around mid-season. (Another perfect call)
Kobayashi outperforms Ericsson who has a couple of good drives in his debut season, but being at the back with the Marussias, it doesn't impress as everyone's eyes are on Bianchi. (Yeah pretty much)

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All in all, minardi's prediction was very good actually. Well done. :)

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Originally Posted by steveaki13

Whenever Nick "Bernie" Jones has some time to spare and set it up I guess.

Thanks rjbetty for that I really enjoyed it. Cant see Ricciardo finishing the championship ahead of Vettel though.

As for FGP, Aki Hedghog Racing Team has major dealings afoot.

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Just thought I'd drag this post up from after I did my test season on Grand Prix 2 in February. Amazing how the game got some things right. :D

In retrospect I am a bit sad I wasn't a bit more bold in some predictions, because the "direction" was right, i.e Mercedes having the best power unit.

But I wanted to comment on one of the pre-season ponderings about midfield teams and what has happened.

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Originally Posted by jens

Interesting thoughts about midfield teams. To me one of the main questions is if any of the "standard" midfield teams can impress with reg changes and do what Lotus did in 2012 - break clear of the midfield and become a remote front-runner.

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The answer is YES! Williams! Wow, didn't expect that. But they are a "remote frontrunner", half-regular podium contender just like Lotus was. And about to finish third in the constructors championship. Great stuff!

Team-by-team. Results in bold include placings in the previous regulation era (2009-2013)

Force India - 6th, 7th, 6th, 7th, 9th.

Same old, same old. 6th again, now despite the best PU. I personally had thought maybe Force India could have the best chance of becoming a „surprise midfield team“, but didn’t happen. Their chassis department is still not good enough.

Sauber – 7th, 6th, 7th, 8th, 6th

10th (!) this year, by far the worst I can remember. Financial problems compounded by poor power unit have seen them dropping to their greatest low. Can they fight back?

Williams – 9th, 8th, 9th, 6th, 7th

3rd. Wow, this is an opposite example. A turnaround! The last time Williams finished in top3 in the constructors, was... 2003. Can they stay there though? Are their finances good enough for long-term success? Or are they like Lotus of 2012-2013?

STR – 8th, 9th, 8th, 9th, 10th

Toro Rosso is about to finish 7th this year, which is their second best ever results (6th in 2008). But in terms of performance STR is still where it usually has been, point-score is still modest. Their position in WCC has been helped by Lotus and Sauber being as rubbish as they have been.

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These current midfield teams have been "status quo" for five consecutive years already. None of them has a huge budget or a significant change in ownership and all leave an impression it could be the same ol' story in the new 2014 V6T regulation era as well. Only to be potentially joined by Lotus in midfield battles.

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Well, certainly Lotus has now joined the group of these „firm midfield teams“, while Williams has pulled clear for now.