What Happens Next?

[DrJackMiller]

I have been a lurker here at these forums for a very long time. Like many of you here, I have been a fan of open wheel racing since I was a kid and find the events of this season challenging to my faith and devotion.

The truth is now out there for the few left who care to see it that this "breakout ChampCar season" is anything but. It now seems obvious that the promises made by the Amigos were a brazen ill-advised and ego-driven bluff. I have been in the racing business my entire professional life and I have never seen anything as sad and ugly as this has now become. I don't like being lied to or being played for a fool and it is clear many of you don't either.

Now many of you here are frustrated and are eating each other alive while looking for someone to blame for the pending and inevitible failure of ChampCar. Self esteem is falling faster the the CART stock price in 2003 and fanatical FTG blind enthusiasm is being replaced by a dread of what happens next.

So, what does happen next?

Another five year plan? Sorry. I won't even buy a five month plan from this bunch. The past 15 years have seen too many people on both sides of The Split trying to sell eternal hope against a backdrop harsh market reality.

How about a new owner for ChampCar?

I suspect that many of you hope that Gerry Forsythe does the deal and the other 2.5 Amigos simply become car owners. The assumption probably is that GF will hire the right people and spend money marketing the series properly and disaster will again be averted. Then all will be well in the collective minds (and egos) of those who believe that ChampCar has still got winning hand somehow burried in all this mess.

Reality check: Look at GF's team -- Is it well run and is it sponsored?

Regardless, I imagine Gerry has had his fill of losing his ass.

Don't hold your breath for anyone else to step in unless it is the man everyone loves to hate from the other side of Indianapolis.

The truth is that this nightmare should not go on another second.

Openwheel racing must begin healing itself and that start with the fans dropping their mouse pad and keyboard weapons.

Divided we have fallen. United we will stand agian.

The time is upon all of us to end this tragic Civil War by looking at the facts and finding a common, realistic way forward.

The market has spoken. ChampCar isn't a brand. It has no economy behind it. It is simply unsustainable without the ego-driven investment of a bunch of very rich guys who have proven themselves to be just another bunch of hobby racers.

Indy Car, despite the lies that justified its creation, is more viable than ChampCar becuase it has the power of perceived inevitabilty and a brand that is defined by the Indianapolis 500. It is also a series that looks more like a CART wannabe with each passing year rather than the open wheeled NASCAR clone it was originally envisioned to be. Some here also forget that CART's greatest successes came when it was called the PPG IndyCar World Series not CART or ChampCar.

You have all debated endlessly about who has more fans and who has better attendance on these forums. The facts are out there if anyone bothers to look at them objectively. For several years, TV ratings have proven that Champ Car does not work on American TV. That isn't going to change...ever.

On the other hand, Indy Car Series ratings are showing relative stability above the basement floor where ChampCar now lies.

Attendance is wildly overstated by promoters on both sides. I know because I count seats and grandstands at events. I have been doing it since the 1980s and I can tell you without hesitation that the numbers we hear for the "Three Day Festivals of Speed" are utter fantasy -- including Long Beach, which sadly now has under 30,000 grandstand seats.

The hard truth is that there simply needs to be one series if the sport is ever to grow and thrive again. This needs to happen sooner rather than later even if it means that Champ Car goes to the great race track in the sky along with Can-Am, Trans-Am, F-5000, IMSA Camel GT and CART.

I we all don't like the fact that the (son of CART) Champ Car series won't win we need to find some perspective or do something else with our time.

The fact is that so much of what was once ours is now in the Indy Car Series and not in Champ Car: Indy, Milwaukee, Motegi, Mid-Ohio, Detroit, Penske, Ganassi, (Andretti)Green, Rahal, Honda, Target, 7-11, Motorola, Franchitti, Kanan, Dixon... the list goes on. More importantly however is the fact that all of the races have sanction fee paying promoters and all but one is in the US. Oh, they are also still payed to be on network TV.

So what exacly is it everyone fighting for in ChampCar? The right to race in Europe and Asia with drivers few Americans have heard of and near zero mainstream media coverage in the USA and time buy races on ESPN Classic? I don't remember getting the memo with market data about about there being a strong demand for a GP2 style series based in North America.

What is it that actually remains from CART in ChampCar? Newman/Hass, Coyne, Walker.... Paul Tracy, Tags, Long Beach, Toronto, Mexico City, Surfers, Road America, Portland, Cosworth, Bridgestone and Formula Atlantic. That is not enough to win given the shaky state of things.

Perhaps all that really drives the hard core fans who are left now is hatred for Tony George and the blind egos of a few rich guys who want to get their way. Hmm... flip that and you will see an irony.

Think about who has more to bring to the equation commercially if the series were combined. I personally doubt this favors ChampCar and Kevin's bluster about "50/50 or nothing" has proven to be just that. Bluster.

Back to my original question: What happens next?

Will the Vegas GP die too? IMHO, this is highly likely give the losses.

Will there be a Champ Car race in China in 2008 or ever, for that matter?
Highly unlikely given recent history.

Will Portland be gone? Looks like yes unless Champ Car underwrites it which, seems unlikely.

Will CDW bail? Why would they stay? Who is there to do B2B business with in a ChampCar paddock? Aussie Vinyards? Sonny's BBQ? Lexington? Motorock?

Will any new teams or major sponsors with activation budgets really come into ChampCar given the putrid climate created by overpromising and underdelivering, managment confusion, in season event cancellations and the skanky scent of AVN Racing and Hustler Clubs wafting in the air? Without major sponsors how will the significant losses by almost every ChampCar promoter be stopped?

Will there really be a new series sponsor annouced? That is the longest of long shots and everyone here knows this. NASCAR's former Busch Series, the Indy Car Series or the American Le Mans Series have a far better chances given their relative stability and the fact they are brand driven properties that are at least attempting to market themselves and create value. I know that deeply offends some Champ Car diehards here but basing a business on an audience that hates Tony George (or the Frances or Bernie) is not a business proposition. There aren't enough of you.

So, what will ChampCar's schedule really be in 2008?

Forget Mark C's fanatical daydream schedule... Think about it realistically.

Maybe 11 real races?

In the USA: FOUR Races - Long Beach, Houston, Cleveland, Road America

In Canada: THREE Races - St. Jovite, Toronto, Edmonton

The rest: Zolder, Assen, Mexico City, Surfers

Will the other Euro races happen? This is probably more likely than Orlando ever coming to life...

Imagine the schedule gaps...

It will be pathetic if a 2008 ChampCar season like this comes to pass. Forgive me but I don't think this is a viable proposition to sponsors and is nothing more than more time and money swirling down a rat hole.

I still love this sport but I now want to see it whole again... with one culture and one fan base.

As someone wiser than me once said:

"You got to get busy livin' or get busy dyin".

So, what happens next... now that blind faith or hatred won't work any more?

[beachbum]

That is the best post I have seen on the sad state of CCWS. Sadly, the fanatics on both sides likely won't see it that way and will post rebuttal after rebuttal and "proof" that the assertions must be wrong. IMHO, it is right on the mark.

Champ Car is mostly great racing, but it has become the playground of a few hobbyists, and just doesn't make any economic sense. Most of the teams could easily find homes in other racing series and we could move on to the future.

[Rogelio]

This "breakout season" has been nothing short of an embarassment, disaster, chaotic, joke...Who is to blame? The IRL is not to blame for our series woes. We have had an uphill battle since the bankruptcy. Unfortunatley, any progress that could have been gained since 2003, has been washed away by inept leadership. You have to wonder of the so-called three amigos ever had a vision at all.

I will hang in there until the end, foolishly.

[DBell]

It's hard to disagree with your post Dr. Jack. ( Your not the former racing doctor of the irl are you? )

When it comes to the IRL, well I'm afraid it just leaves me uninspired. From the underpowered buzzy engines to the concept of big wing pack racing on ovals, it doesn't do anything for me. I've actually tuned into a few races this year to see what was what for myself and wasn't impressed. There has been very little passing even on ovals.

CC looks bleak and I think we're hoping against hope, but I'll ride it through to the end. If and when the end does come, it'll take a lot more than a couple of CC teams going to the irl for me to watch. It'll take a change in concept from the cars to the style of racing they want for me to give it a try. Otherwise, I'll have to make do with F1, ALMS and touring cars races.

[Blancvino]

My useless 2 cents

Enjoy Champcar for what it is ...
Hope for the best ...
Take what ever comes along ...

In the Amigos we got a few more years than what the grandson would have given us.

Oh ... and for G_d's sake BITCH ABOUT IT SOME MORE! That really helps!

[David St. Hubbins]

So....we just roll over and die?

I may be wrong, and correct me if I am, DrJack, but it sounds to me as though you're saying TG needs to run the one series.

While I agree there should be one series, I think the whole idea of AOWR needs to be burned to the ground and start from scratch, with neither KK et al nor tg in charge. Someone, be it an individual or even a corporation, needs to take control. Someone who is willing to focus on the series and market it and make it the 2,000 pound gorilla it needs to be in order to counteract nascar.

[Turn-In]

A couple things, not to rebute, just to add in discussion.

TG makes more money than he can spend. No way around it.

CC does have the best racing, but obviously it is not being sold and is not the best package of commercialism and THAT is what matters. We get too caught up in the passing and things that matter to racing fans to miss what matters to the armchair fan who will turn in because of personal stories or the such about the drivers...etc etc.

Oh well. With those 11 races mentioned above, lets hope Laguna is added and something eastern....one can dream.
Just no lies.

Thanks for the post. I just want good racing with good drivers, that is going to be here for many seasons to come. Lets hope the last part comes to fruition.

[sanguin]

I'm a long time lurker and can't believe what I just read. IRL is no more stable than the minute Honda decides to leave.Cut rate sponsorship and driver salaries.TG doesn't have all the money to spend on propping up his series,the 500 and IMS,don't kid yourself. Racing in front of empty stands where the attendance is based on how many free tickets were given out that race is not a success. No network would pay for tv ratings of 1 or less unless they were bribed with the failing 500. No one cares about any of those teams or tracks in the IRL anymore.No one cares about their old car or their attempt at roadracing. The IRL has lost all the successful ovals CART once had.

Seems TG wants all the good stuff in CC given to him. Sorry, go take your sorry plea to the correct forum,IRL's.

See you in 2008, Long Live Champ Car

[NoFender]

Great post Dr J! Too bad everything about our sport is driven by ego. That has been, and will be, the demon real fans have to deal with.

[pvtjoker]

Seems TG wants all the good stuff in CC given to him. Sorry, go take your sorry plea to the correct forum,IRL's.

With every passing day, the list of CC "good stuff" is getting less and less.