Weather Forecast for Daytona 500 weekend

[slorydn1]

Wednesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 56. Northwest wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.

Wednesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 36. Northwest wind between 10 and 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.

Thursday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 59. Northwest wind between 5 and 10 mph.

Thursday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 41. North northwest wind around 5 mph.

Friday: A 50 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 60. North northwest wind between 5 and 10 mph.

Friday Night: A 40 percent chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 45. North northwest wind between 10 and 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.

Saturday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 58. Northwest wind between 10 and 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.

Saturday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 42. Northwest wind around 10 mph.

Sunday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 62. North northwest wind around 10 mph.

So far looks pretty decent, although the weather for the Truck race looks a little dicey

[slorydn1]

000
Fxus62 Kmlb 081958
Afdmlb

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne Fl
258 Pm Est Mon Feb 8 2010

...continued Below Normal Temperatures Thru The Extended...
...very Cold Wind Chills Overnight Wed...
...fire Sensitivity Increases Wed-thu...
...marine Conds Hazardous For Much Of Week...

.discussion...
Tonight/tuesday...surface Ridge That Brought Tranquil Wx Today
Slides Eastward Allowing Cloud Cover/moisture To Gradually Increase
Overnight Into Tuesday Ahead Of Next Shortwave. Rainfall Looks To
Hold Off Across East Central Florida Until Mainly The Afternoon
Hours Tuesday Based On Timing Of Nam/gfs. Best Chance Of Rain With
Likely Pops Appears To Be Across The Central And North Where
Better Dynamics Reside With Chance Pops Across The South. Also
Removed The Slight Chance Of Thunder After Coordinating With
Surrounding Offices. Could Not Justify Keeping It In With Both Nam
And Gfs Forecasting Cape Values Around 100 J/kg Or Less Along With
Limited Time For Quality Moisture Recovery.

Tue Night...the Cold Front Will Move Through East-central Florida
During The Evening/overnight. The Gfs Is Presently A Little Quicker
Pushing This Boundary Through The Area Than The Nam. As This System
Appears Moisture-starved Will Maintain Inherited 30%-40% Pops Over
Land For The Evening Period...but Not Expecting Much In The Way Of
Significant Precipitation. Cold Air Advection Over The Region Will
Be Ushered In From The North On The Backside Of This System.
Overnight Lows Should Be Several Degrees Below Normal With Lower 40s
Along And North Of The I-4 Corridor And Middle/upper 40s Further
South...except Around 50 Degrees Along The Treasure Coast. Cloud
Cover Will Be Slower To Break Up From North To South...this...and
Breezy Overnight Northwest Winds (15-20 Mph) Will Keep Temperatures
From Dropping Lower. There Could Be Wind Chills Late Overnight Tue
Into Wed Morning In The Upper 30s/lower 40s...mainly Along And North
Of The I-4 Corridor.

Wed-wed Night...zonal Flow Pattern Aloft Continues For This Period.
Cold Air Advection With Much Colder/drier Air Will Continue To
Filter Down The Peninsula During The Day And Night. High Pressure
Over The Central Conus Will Nose Southeastward Into The Gulf Coast
States And Florida Peninsula During This 24 Hour Period. Northwest
Winds Are Forecast To Lessen During The Afternoon But For Much Of
The Day...expect Breezy Winds (15-20 Mph) With Occasional Stronger
Gusts To Continue. This Will Not Be A Pleasant Day To Be Outside As
Highs Will Be Much Below Climo. Max Afternoon Highs Are Forecast In
The Middle/upper 50s...i-4 Corridor North...with Upper 50s To Around
60 Degrees Further South...except Lower 60s Along The Treasure
Coast. Overnight Min Temps...widespread 30s Across Most Of Our
Coverage Warning Area. Winds Forecast To Remain Elevated Around 10
Mph So A Wind Chill Advisory Very Possible For Overnight Wed Into
Early/mid Thu Morning. Expect Wind Chill Values After Midnight To
Fall Into The Upper 20s/lower 30s Areawide For Several Hours.

Thu-sun...(previous Extended Discussion)...cool Air Advection
Pattern Will Continue Into Thru Weekend As High Pressure Drifts
Across The Ern Conus. Both Gfs/ecmwf Models Are Hinting At A Weak
Low Dvlpg Over The Gomex By 18z Fri And Tracking Across The Fl
Peninsula Late Fri Night. Solution Is Feasible As Upstream Jet
Energy Is Plentiful: The 100kt H25 Isotach Extends Well Into The
Ern Pac...with A Second And Stronger Jet Max Spanning The Central
Pac. Early Indications For Highest Pops Are Fri/fri Night...with
Clearing Conditions By Daybreak Sat. Temps Will Remain A Solid
10-15f Blo Climo Along And N Of The I-4 Corridor...and 5-10f Blo
Climo Along The Space And Treasure Coasts.

[slorydn1]

This Afternoon: Sunny, with a high near 55. West northwest wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 31. Wind chill values as low as 22. West northwest wind between 10 and 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.

Thursday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 57. Wind chill values as low as 23 early. Northwest wind around 10 mph.

Thursday Night: A 20 percent chance of rain after 1am. Increasing clouds, with a low around 38. Northwest wind around 5 mph.

Friday: Rain likely. Cloudy, with a high near 57. Northeast wind between 5 and 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Friday Night: A 50 percent chance of rain, mainly before midnight. Cloudy, with a low around 38. North northwest wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.

Saturday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 60. Windy, with a north northwest wind between 15 and 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph.

Saturday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 39. North northwest wind around 10 mph.

Sunday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 62. West northwest wind between 5 and 10 mph.

Presidents' Day: A 20 percent chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a high near 62. West wind around 10 mph.

Looking more and more like a Monday Truck race

Rest of the time looks decent.

[slorydn1]

000
FXUS62 KMLB 102029
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
329 PM EST WED FEB 10 2010

.DISCUSSION...

...VERY COLD TONIGHT WITH LOW WIND CHILLS AREAWIDE AND FREEZING TO
NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE...

CURRENT-TONIGHT...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES HAVE STRUGGLED TO REACH
FORECAST HIGHS SO FAR TODAY. CURRENT READINGS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA SHOW LOWER 50S NORTH OF A LINE FROM SOUTH LAKE COUNTY TO
NORTH BREVARD COUNTY. FURTHER SOUTH MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S CAN BE FOUND
AND TO 60 DEGREES IN SOUTH OKEECHOBEE COUNTY AND ALONG THE TREASURE
COAST.

TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION TO BEGIN TO RELAX SLIGHTLY
THIS EVENING...THOUGH CURRENT BREEZY CONDITIONS 15-20 MPH NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL ONLY FALL TO AROUND 10 MPH ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL NOT BE ABLE TO DECOUPLE.

POTENT LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE UP THE NORTH ATLC SEABOARD
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS DRIFTS SLIGHTLY EASTWARD
OVERNIGHT WITH ASSOCIATED RIDGE NOSING INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
SKIES EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT...THOUGH THERE MIGHT
BE A SCATTERED INTRUSION OF HIGH CLOUDINESS LATE.

STRONG COLD/DRY AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES OVER THE AREA FOR AT LEAST
ONE MORE PERIOD (TONIGHT). OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WIDESPREAD IN THE MIDDLE 30S WITH LOWER 30S IN NORMALLY COLD
LOCATIONS. A FREEZE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF LAKE AND
VOLUSIA COUNTIES FROM 2AM TONIGHT UNTIL 8AM THU MORNING. DURATIONS
OF 4 TO 6 HOURS OF UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ARE LIKELY OVER LAKE AND
INLAND VOLUSIA COUNTIES. ACROSS COASTAL VOLUSIA COUNTY EXPECT LOWS
30-32 FOR 2 TO 4 HOURS. THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT FOR VERY LOW
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF INTRUSION FROM
HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE WEST TOWARD DAYBREAK.

A WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1AM TONIGHT UNTIL 10AM
THU MORNING FOR ALL OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. WIND CHILL READINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE MIDDLE/UPPER 20S FOR SEVERAL HOURS...WITH
AREAS OF LAKE...VOLUSIA COUNTIES SEEING A FEW HOURS OF READINGS IN
THE LOWER 20S FOR WIND CHILLS.

THU...A VERY CHILLY...OR IF YOU PREFER...A VERY COLD START TO THE
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN OVER THE
REGION AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE OVER SOUTHEAST
TEXAS. WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTHWESTERLY BETWEEN 10 AND 15 MPH THROUGH
THE DAY. WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE ONLY A SMALL GRADUAL WARM-UP FROM THE
PREVIOUS 24 HOURS AS THE COLD AIR ADVECTION SLOWLY WEAKENS OVER THE
AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW CLIMO WITH UPPER 50S NORTH
AND ACROSS THE INTERIOR...TO NEAR 60 DEGREES ACROSS BREVARD COUNTY
WITH LOWER 60S ALONG THE TREASURE COAST. SOME HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL BEGIN TO INVADE ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE DAY.

FRI-SAT...STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET WILL BRING POWERFUL AND FAST-
MOVING SFC LOW ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTHERN HALF OF FL
FRIDAY AND EARLY FRI NIGHT. 12Z GFS APPEARS TO HAVE SPED UP THE
LOW A BIT AND IS A COUPLE MB LOWER/STRONGER THAN 12Z ECMWF BUT
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING LOW TRACK ROUGHLY ACROSS LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. BULK OF THE RAIN STILL LOOKS TO OCCUR DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS BUT SHOULD BEGIN ACROSS
LAKE/VOLUSIA COUNTIES EARLY IN THE MORNING. VERY STRONG ISENTROPIC
LIFT WILL PROMOTE WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM RAIN WITH ONE HALF INCH
ACCUMULATIONS COMMON. UP TO 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOME
LOCATIONS. HAVE RAISED POPS FOR FRIDAY TO 70% AND ULTIMATELY WE
WILL PROBABLY GO 100% ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AS WE GET CLOSER. NO
FROZEN PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS EC FL ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE
A COLD RAIN...WITH TEMPS IN THE 50S ORLANDO NORTHWARD. TREASURE
COAST MAY BREAK INTO THE LOWER 70S.

DESPITE IMPRESSIVE WIND FIELDS...INSTABILITY WILL BE SORELY
LACKING AS TRACK OF SFC LOW KEEPS WARM SECTOR SUPPRESSED TO OUR
SOUTH. SO HAVE NOT INTRODUCED THUNDER TO THE FORECAST AND SEVERE
THREAT IS NOT APPRECIABLE AT THIS TIME. HIGH PRES REBUILDING
ACROSS SERN CONUS/FL WL KEEP TEMPS COOL AGN ON SAT/SAT NGT. 12Z
MOS GUIDANCE IS TRENDING COLDER FOR SUNDAY MORNING WITH NEAR
FREEZING TEMPS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH LAKE/VOLUSIA COUNTIES. WILL
WAIT TO SEE IF FUTURE MODEL RUNS CONCUR BEFORE LOWERING TEMPS.

SUN-TUE...HIGH PRES OVER FL SUN GETS NUDGED SWD BY SUN
NGT...AHEAD OF ANOTHER FAST MOVING COOL FROPA ON MONDAY. FRONTAL
BDRY MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SPOTTY LGT SHRA...HOWEVER PRECIP
AMOUNTS/RAIN CHCS NOT ALL THAT GREAT. POST-FRONTAL HIGH PRES
BUILDING TWD FL WILL KEEP TEMPS BELOW CLIMO MON-TUE...THOUGH
PLEASANT DAYTIME MAXES (60S) WITH COOL NIGHTTIME MINS (A FEW DEGS
EITHER SIDE OF 40F).

[slorydn1]

Today: Mostly sunny, with a high near 54. Wind chill values as low as 35 early. Northwest wind between 5 and 15 mph.

Tonight: A 20 percent chance of rain after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 40. North northwest wind around 5 mph.

Friday: Rain. High near 53. Northeast wind between 5 and 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%.

Friday Night: A 50 percent chance of rain, mainly before midnight. Cloudy, with a low around 38. North northwest wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.

Saturday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 55. Northwest wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.

Saturday Night: Clear, with a low around 37. Northwest wind between 5 and 10 mph.

Sunday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 59. West northwest wind around 5 mph.

Sunday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 38. West wind around 5 mph.

Presidents' Day: A 20 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 62. West southwest wind between 5 and 10 mph.

[slorydn1]

Daytona Beach International Airport
Lat: 29.18 Lon: -81.05 Elev: 29
Last Update on Feb 11, 7:53 am EST

Partly Cloudy

36 °F
(2 °C) Humidity: 62 % Wind Speed: NW 9 MPH Barometer: 30.08" (1018.6 mb) Dewpoint: 24 °F (-4 °C) Wind Chill: 29 °F (-2 °C) Visibility: 10.00 mi.

[slorydn1]

Friday: Rain. High near 55. North wind 5 to 15 mph becoming east. Chance of precipitation is 100%.

Friday Night: A 40 percent chance of showers before midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 38. Wind chill values as low as 31. Windy, with a north northwest wind between 15 and 20 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.

Saturday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 56. Wind chill values as low as 29 early. Northwest wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.

Saturday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 32. Northwest wind between 5 and 10 mph.

Sunday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 59. West northwest wind between 5 and 10 mph.

Sunday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 38. West southwest wind around 5 mph.

Presidents' Day: A 20 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 62. West southwest wind between 5 and 15 mph.

Well,I prbably could have gone to work tomorrow,because the possibility of any on track activity does not look good.

I have included Monday's forecast for the truck race, if needed.

[slorydn1]

Friday: Rain. High near 55. North wind 5 to 15 mph becoming east. Chance of precipitation is 100%.

Friday Night: A 40 percent chance of showers before midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 38. Wind chill values as low as 31. Windy, with a north northwest wind between 15 and 20 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.

I am focusing primarily on Friday's weather as it really is the only "bad day" this weekend. Its really not looking good for today at all

[slorydn1]

according to the NWS radar out of Melbourne, FL, the leading edge of the precip is just north of Daytona now.

[slorydn1]

000
FXUS62 KMLB 120127
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
827 PM EST THU FEB 11 2010

.DISCUSSION...

...STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRI
AFTERNOON-EVENING...

TONIGHT-FRI...LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN GULF WILL
MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GULF EARLY IN THE MORNING AND OFFSHORE CAPE
CANAVERAL IN THE EVENING.

AFTER A NIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AS THE ATMOSPHERE MOISTENS FROM
THE TOP DOWN...THE WEATHER FRI WILL GO SHARPLY DOWNHILL. A LARGE
AREA OF RAIN WILL BREAK OUT AHEAD OF THE LOW. THE LATEST GFS SHOWS
SATURATED SOUNDINGS BY 18Z WITH THE NAM AND ECMWF A LITTLE SLOWER.
THE PERIOD OF WARM ADVECTION WILL BE SHORT SO INCREASING LOW LEVEL
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL LIKELY NOT BE ABLE TO DISLODGE THE STABLE LAYER
NEAR THE SURFACE...SO CURRENT FORECAST THAT DOES NOT MENTION THUNDER
LOOKS OKAY. HOWEVER THE WARM ADVECTION WILL BE STRONG SO SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL EXIST AND EXPECT AT LEAST SOME PERIODS OF
SHOWERS WITH HEAVY RAIN. EVEN WITH THE FAST MOVEMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM...SOME RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR MORE SEEM POSSIBLE. THE
CURRENT FORECAST WHICH CALLS FOR A CLOUDY DAY WITH 90-100 PERCENT
POPS LOOKS GOOD.

A SURFACE LOW TRANSITING THE CENTRAL PENINSULA WHILE DEEPENING IS
VERY ANOMALOUS. THEREFORE...EXPECT THERE MAY BE SOMETHING UNFORESEEN
THAT OCCURS AS IT RACES ACROSS THE AREA. THE DAY SHIFT INTRODUCED A
GALE WATCH FOR THE COASTAL WATERS LATE IN THE DAY...WHICH WAS A GOOD
IDEA. THE LOW LEVELS WILL BE TOO STABLE FOR A SIGNIFICANT WIND
EVENT OVER LAND...EXCEPT MAYBE SOUTHERN SECTIONS...BUT BEHIND THE
LOW THE WINDS SHOULD BE QUITE STRONG AREAWIDE IN THE EVENING.

FRI NIGHT-SUN (PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)...LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
DEEPEN TO A GALE AS IT PUSHES AWAY FROM THE FL EAST COAST FRI NIGHT.
WINDY/GUSTY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRI NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH COLD
ADVECTION. THE GFS IS HINTING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW FLURRIES
BEFORE DAYBREAK SAT ACROSS LAKE/VOLUSIA COUNTIES. THIS IS ENTIRELY
DEPENDENT ON ENOUGH COLD AIR REACHING THE AREA BEFORE THE WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE LIFTS OUT. DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE
IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. THE BIG STORY WITH THIS SYSTEM IS
LIKELY GOING TO BE THE WIND IT PRODUCES ESP FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. WIND CHILL VALUES AT OR BELOW FREEZING CAN BE EXPECTED
EARLY SATURDAY ESP ACROSS THE NORTH.

STRONG HIGH PRES WILL BUILD INTO FL FOR THIS WEEKEND...KEEPING MAX
TEMPS (U50S AND 60S) COOL AND MINS (L-M30S) COLD. NEAR FREEZING
TEMPS POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION...MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND THICKEN
OVER THE AREA. VFR ALL SITES THRU AT LEAST 12/06Z...CIGS AT OR ABV
FL100-120. BTWN 12/06Z-12Z...CIGS ALONG & NORTH OF I-4 CORRIDOR BTWN
FL030-FL060 (GRADUALLY). ON FRI...WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL DEVELOP
INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY DURING THE AFTERNOON. MVFR/IFR
PREVAILING CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF AFTERNOON.