2023 - Race 1 Bahrain

[F1nKS]

It is on like donkey kong - 2023!

Coming out of the 3 days of Practice it seems:

1. Red Bull - looked the fastest, nailed reliabilty

Next Level

2. Mercedes
3. Ferrari

These teams are interchangeable. Ferrari supposedly have fixed their engine reliability. Mercedes have fixed their porpoising. They were both probably holding back some last weekend.

Some are crowning Red Bull a little early. Mercedes probably has the best driver lineup on the grid, so if they have a competitive car watch out. Ferrari were able to challenge RB in qualifying, but didn't have the reliability and strategy decisions to win.

Next Level

4. Aston Martin
5. Alfa Romeo
6. Alpine

Aston Martin is the golden child of practice with many pundits believing they could be fighting for 3. It does sound like Stroll is much more hurt than is being acknowledged. So the question is Vettel a possible option if their car is really this good or will they leave it to their reserve driver?

Alpine - Their performance was not really this good, but some are confident in them.

Next Level

7. Alpha Tauri
8. Haas
9. McLaren
10. williams

McLaren is the big loser here. It looks like they have major problems.

[F1nKS]

Word is going around that Stroll broke 1 or maybe even both wrists in his accident.

Honeymoon has worn off between Gasley and Ocon - they refused to travel on a train together for some event.

[airshifter]

Quite a few subtle changes showing up on cars already, and it's the first race. Soon we will see if any of the big guns wheels out something they kept quiet in testing.

I wouldn't be surprised to see a quicker qually than last year. They all improved in testing, and even with the possibility of sandbagging, testing times were about a second quicker on fastest laps for some teams. Where they all shake out might surprise us, as the usual "who is testing what" scenarios were in place. Tires seem to be doing well, so race sims held up well, but can they be pushed even harder?



ETA: Lance is at the track and now some are claiming he will be racing.

[F1nKS]

ETA: Lance is at the track and now some are claiming he will be racing.

He made it through first day of practice. Though there is indications that his hand was bothering him. But if their car is good as it looks, I can see why he wouldn't want to miss a weekend.

[airshifter]

He made it through first day of practice. Though there is indications that his hand was bothering him. But if their car is good as it looks, I can see why he wouldn't want to miss a weekend.

Watching those onboards, I think they are really pushing it to race Lance. He obviously still doesn't have the full mobility, and openly stated he can't hold certain lines due to his wrists. The problem is they have a choice of push their luck with Lance or go with the unknown. If Lance can get a good result it's a big moral thing for the team, even if they have to put Drugovich in the car for a race or two later.



Though Q3, it looks like there might be some truth to the AM hype train. But we won't know for sure until the cars all uncork it during qualification. I expect some to open up and finally show their real hand, but I'm not sure if AM will be one of those teams. But it has certainly got my interest enough that I want to know.

As always, qually vs race pace, who can get and keep the tires in the right windows, along with driver performance and strategy calls will all start coming to light soon. I'm hoping there is still some shaking up to do and that the delta in teams between the front and mid pack tighten up. And I'd really like to see the mid pack margins reduce even more, or in a perfect world even the margins at the front be reduced even more.

[Nitrodaze]

It is frustrating at Ferrari at the moment as Leclerc bows out of Q3 before the end. Gremlin in the Ferrari showing up. All signs suggest that Redbull shall run away with the 2023 double titles with ease; reliability allowing of course. It is clear the F1M has got the regulations wrong as it is failing to deliver on its promise of closer racing. The race tomorrow shall be the usual procession with Redbull racing off into the distance.

[F1nKS]

It is clear the F1M has got the regulations wrong as it is failing to deliver on its promise of closer racing.

Data presents a different picture. If you look at the Bahrain gap times between the Top 10 qualifying, you see that things have gotten tighter.

Here are results for Q3 Gap times from pole position.

2021 (2023)
2. - 0.4 sec (0.1 sec)
3. - 0.6 sec (0.3 sec)
4. - 0.7 sec (0.4 sec)
5. - 0.8 sec (0.6 sec)
6. - 0.9 sec (0.6 sec)
7. - 1.0 sec (0.7 sec)
8. - 1.2 sec (1.1 sec)
9. - 1.3 sec (1.3 (sec)

That works out about 24% improvement in gap times for all of Q3. Position 1-6 gap times were improved by 37%.

If you look at Q1, there is very significant improvement in position 11 thru 20. In 2021, these positions average 1.5 seconds behind the No. 1 position. In 2023, they average dropped to 0.8 seconds behind. Number 20th, went from 2.2 seconds behind to 1.2 seconds behind.

Anecdotally, I also think there is closer racing (based on 2022 results), but it was more seen in the mid-field than in the front of the grid. This was because it looks like RBR nailed it, while Ferrari was close, but their reliability, strategy, and tire wear held them back. Mercedes screwed their design up (and still have not figured it out).

[denkimi]

All signs suggest that Redbull shall run away with the 2023 double titles with ease; reliability allowing of course.

Many thought the same about ferrari at this point last year.

[Nitrodaze]

Data presents a different picture. If you look at the Bahrain gap times between the Top 10 qualifying, you see that things have gotten tighter.

Here are results for Q3 Gap times from pole position.

2021 (2023)
2. - 0.4 sec (0.1 sec)
3. - 0.6 sec (0.3 sec)
4. - 0.7 sec (0.4 sec)
5. - 0.8 sec (0.6 sec)
6. - 0.9 sec (0.6 sec)
7. - 1.0 sec (0.7 sec)
8. - 1.2 sec (1.1 sec)
9. - 1.3 sec (1.3 (sec)

That works out about 24% improvement in gap times for all of Q3. Position 1-6 gap times were improved by 37%.

If you look at Q1, there is very significant improvement in position 11 thru 20. In 2021, these positions average 1.5 seconds behind the No. 1 position. In 2023, they average dropped to 0.8 seconds behind. Number 20th, went from 2.2 seconds behind to 1.2 seconds behind.

Anecdotally, I also think there is closer racing (based on 2022 results), but it was more seen in the mid-field than in the front of the grid. This was because it looks like RBR nailed it, while Ferrari was close, but their reliability, strategy, and tire wear held them back. Mercedes screwed their design up (and still have not figured it out).

Unfortunately, you are comparing 2021 times with 2023 times, of course, you would see massive improvements. Besides, it is race times that really matter here. And Verstappen would rocket off from the lines leaving the Ferraris to battle with Alonso in the Aston. I predict that the race winner would be at least 30 seconds ahead at the end of the race which would essentially prove my point.

[Nitrodaze]

Many thought the same about ferrari at this point last year.

Well, we hope the penalty on Redbull hurt them enough to bring them backwards into a fight with Ferrari for the title. Not backward for them to be out of the running but enough to have to fight hard to win it. We want to see some hard-fought battles for wins, don't we?