2023 - Race 9 Canada

[F1nKS]

This race is still couple weeks off. Key questions:

Will Max slip up?

Here is another data point for Mercedes - they looked strong in Spain. They can put down another marker with strong performance in Canada.

Perez has slipped up 2 races in row, though he made nice recovery drive to minimize the damage. Will it be three?

Was Spain a fluke for Alonso, or are we seeing a weakness in the Aston Martin car once they moved from street circuits?

Oh Ferrari? Where have you gone? Oh Ferrari?

[airshifter]

It looks like there is a good chance of rain, so that alone might hide some of the performance differences and/or gains in the cars. Setups already seem to be going different directions based on wings on the cars, so it might just be a weekend where getting it right pays bid dividends.

It might also mask upgrades to the cars as to where they really landed. I think Alpine has some new goodies hitting the track in Canada, and we still really need to see if the Merc upgrades will respond well on a (dry) low downforce track. I personally wouldn't be surprised if Merc still have a deficit to AMR and Ferrari on the lower downforce tracks that race in the dry.

As for Sergio, hard to say what has knocked him down so much recently. RB seems to be a high pressure team, and that probably doesn't help at times.

[Nitrodaze]

Seeing how the W14 fared in Monaco, l suspect they would be up there with AMR and Ferrari. But that group immediately behind Redbull is so tight now, such that a few tenths lost or gained can severely punish or reward a driver. If it rains or a damp track for qualifying, we could end up with an odd top-ten lineup. If it rains during the race, then this might be a race where a non-Redbull car wins a race for the first time this season.

A dry Canadian GP would be a proper test to show if Mercedes has actually made a step forward. Barcelona might be a fluke since the Aston was not at its usual level of performance.

Perez is feeling the pressure at the moment as he comes to realize that any mistake on his part would be heavily punished by Verstappen. I think he would be quite determined not to make any mistakes in this race. Montreal is the sort of track that suit Perez. He tends to do very well on street circuits. Hence while everyone is saying Verstappen would boss this weekend, Perez may well spring a surprise win to cut down the gap between him and Verstappen. If he doesn't, then he must finish 2nd or face the stern wrath of the RedBull establishment. He can't afford to slip up with the Honey Badger waiting in the wings to reclaim his seat.

Aston Martin has turned up at Montreal with some major updates to the car. The upgrades would either work brilliantly and push them ahead of Mercedes or tank badly and push them into the clutches of Alpine. The demeanor of the team seems to be very upbeat. Lawrence Stroll is even bullish to claim a double podium is possible in this race. Of course, this means Lance would have to pull his weight and put out exceptional performance similar to or close to Alonso. Considering how tight the bottom of the sharp end is, they would have to have found at least three-tenths over their last best times to be ahead of that pack. We would find out during 2nd or 3rd practice where they are in the pecking order.

The battle for second place in the championship is where the actual racing is this season. The real championship this season is for who wins the runners-up position behind Redbull. And it is a four-team tussle with Alpine well in it. Mclaren may well join this pack later on. Aston Martin is the favorite to win this position but Mercedes seem more likely to knick it due to their experience and driver lineup. That said, the Ferrari upgrade may also click into form at this track, which may produce a tighter race for the win between Ferrari and Redbull. I think there is a massive untapped potential in that Ferrari chassis.

[Bagwan]

It's gonna be raining for qually , but only lightly , not a deluge that would stop things , so the forecasters say .

I didn't like the look of Aston spraying on the flo-viz so late in the session . It made them look a little lost , in my opinion , but maybe they did it then because they knew they could wash it off easily afterwards in the rain .

Turn one could be interesting with the re-entry for a missed turn going across a bit of turf after having to veer left and then tightly right to get back on past the new barriers .
That grass will still be wet for tomorrow's race .

Today , I expect a lot of delays , due to barriers getting in the way of a good time for five or six of the drivers .



And , best of all , the way it looks so far , nobody knows who's going to win .

[airshifter]

Yeah, the new barrier will either have a mess at turn one at times, or cars just not trying to race as they tip toe through there to make sure they make the corner. It was needed, but is still kind of wonky really.

This qually could be quite the shake up. I don't know if P3 times told us much at all, other than if it stayed that wet. And I suspect some cars will go for the qually setup while others go for the race setup. It's going to make it hard to figure out who has improvements from the upgrades and who has the right setup for the days that matter.

Personally I hope the weather keeps changing and we get some real mixed conditions to shake things up.

[airshifter]

I think there are penalties incoming. That traffic at the end was a mess!

[airshifter]

Well that was an interesting session. As expected somewhat, some teams and drivers blew it, some of them got it right. To make it even more interesting some of them got it right with dry tires, and some with intermediates. It was amazing to see a Williams at the top in Q2, but just goes to show what can happen when conditions are changing, especially for cars back in the order with little to lose if it's a bad choice.

Max got it right on the softs, but Sergio is still struggling with the confidence with either tire. And lucky Lance stayed off the walls with that spin somehow, but looking just as mediocre as Checo and behind him in the order. Merc, Lewis, and George all managed to get it right for the most part, but Hulk pulled off the surprise of the day by setting his fast time just seconds before the track went red and it all went downhill in the times.

Leclerc very unhappy with Ferrari, but I expect him to be starting in front of Carlos. That move by Sainz was bad. Though I know Gasly can be a drama queen at times I think Carlos might be facing more than a three grid penalty. Yuki didn't make as much drama over the incident, but no doubt the Ferrari screwed up some potentially good laps for two drivers, and at that level they should know better.

With some cars out of order, as well as varied setups for qually no doubt, tomorrow could be an interesting race. With things dry and the good and bad strategy calls in qually done, it will be interesting to see where the real races are. I don't really expect Hulkenberg will attempt to fight Alonso or the two Mercs, but it will be interesting to see how the top three shake out. With both Fernando and Max not having any wingman to help them at the front, the Mercs can split strategies and attempt to maybe apply some pressure to the RB team and Max. And with cars out of order that roll of the dice might be a big change in the order if safety cars come into the picture.


I guess we will see soon enough.

[airshifter]

Sainz penalty confirmed, three grid spots.

Nothing yet on Hulk, who had to see the stewards about possible speeding during red flag conditions. If he gets a penalty I'm sure the Mercs as well as Ocon will be chomping at the bit to change the race order at the front of the field.

[Nitrodaze]

Max Verstappen displayed star quality when the chips were down. The conditions at qualifying were ripe for an upset and it seemed Alonso and Aston Martin were primed to do just that. But Verstappen drove like a champion and pulled out a brilliant lap which was all down to his talent while the competition simply faltered.

Sainz was such a dopey driver wasn't he? Over a few races now, he seems to forget that he is on a track with faster cars coming at his position. I hope he get penalized for obstruction. How frustrated was Leclerc? Nothing seems to be going his way of late. But openly blaming his team would not go down well for him l suspect.

Tough quali session for Lance Stroll but the consolation is there is an Aston Martin in the second row. Tomorrow get get to see Alonso and Hamilton get off the line in a fight to get ahead of each other. Two wily champions behind a slower Haas, well placed to give Verstappen an easier run off the line.

Another woefull session for Perez. The pressure is mounting as Verstappen is set to make the gap even bigger tomorrow. Be would need to make a recovery drive into podium positions tomorrow to avert criiticism.

[Nitrodaze]

I wonder what the podium is going to look like tomorrow? It is set to be a podium of champions ceteris pariibus. 2 2 7 or 2 7 2 ???