Page 14 of 17 FirstFirst ... 41213141516 ... LastLast
Results 131 to 140 of 165
  1. #131
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    May 2005
    Location
    Estonia
    Posts
    3,685
    Like
    416
    Liked 1,437 Times in 368 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Fast Eddie WRC View Post
    It's so annoying how they keep saying Italy, Spain and now the USA have more cases and deaths than China had. The official death figures from China are a blatant lie.

    Crematoria and morgue workers just in Wuhan estimate the number of deaths in the city as 46,000 !
    This is a bit too dramatic, to make move more dramatic. I was also analyzing this and I found that number of deaths by Virus in Wuhan was likely around 17-19k. You know, everything was locked down for two months. people tend to die every day and they must be placed somewhere. And if you have such situation, you burn them all. So, in two months period there should be natural deaths approximately 25k people (+/-1k). if there was 46 k, we had confirmed 3 k, we should get 46k-3k-25k(+/-1k)= 17-19 k. So, people likely infected was likely 1.7 -1.9 million. Mortality rate might be around 1%. It is stil hard to calculate, but it seems that it is the case with cruise ships where you have controlled environment and no political "hiding."
    So, for US, I calculated that number of dead people by the end of today should be 5500 and by 15th of April, ca 240 k. Lets see, luckily they are slightly behind the schedule.

    The problem with this flue is very easy to get infected and very hidden transmission, that means number of infected people is high and worst cases all need intensive care (some say 10%, but it is not clear yet, because noone knows exact number of infected people, and with natural progression, most of the countries do not have the capacity to put so many people in intensive care in one month or so. 1% might look small number. But lets take Italy, you have over 60 million people, that means, can have 600 000 people dead and upt to 6 million in intensive care? Probably the 10% is smaller, but even if it is like 5%, it is still 3 million people.
    Colins Crest = Möldri Mätas

  2. #132
    Senior Member Mirek's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2007
    Location
    Prague / Eastern Bohemia
    Posts
    20,780
    Like
    6,331
    Liked 8,557 Times in 3,459 Posts
    There was an area in Moravia (close to Barum rally area) which was under total lockdown for some time due to a very large number of uncontrollable contacts with infected persons (which probably ignored traveler quarantine). This total lockdown was now lifted because the officials claim the infected and their contacts are now being tracked. Why I'm writing this is that they will do a 100% testing of all people in the area in next few days.

    Also a 5000 thousand random sample of people with no symptoms will be tested next week in Prague to see the percentage of infected among the seamingly healthy population. I will give You the results when they are published.

    By the way according to the statistical models used by our health ministry the R0 number at the beginning of the epidemy here without any social distancing measures was 2,64. They claim that at the moment it is down to roughly 1,1-1,3. Of course it's developing situation so the number have to be taken with a grain of salt.
    Last edited by Mirek; 1st April 2020 at 18:00.
    Stupid is as stupid does. Forrest Gump

  3. #133
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    May 2005
    Location
    Estonia
    Posts
    3,685
    Like
    416
    Liked 1,437 Times in 368 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Mirek View Post
    There was an area in Moravia (close to Barum rally area) which was under total lockdown for some time due to a very large number of uncontrollable contacts with infected persons (which probably ignored traveler quarantine). This total lockdown was now lifted because the officials claim the infected and their contacts are now being tracked. Why I'm writing this is that they will do a 100% testing of all people in the area in next few days.

    Also a 5000 thousand random sample of people with no symptoms will be tested next week in Prague to see the percentage of infected among the seamingly healthy population. I will give You the results when they are published.

    By the way according to the statistical models used by our health ministry the R0 number at the beginning of the epidemy here without any social distancing measures was 2,64. They claim that at the moment it is down to roughly 1,1-1,3. Of course it's developing situation so the number have to be taken with a grain of salt.
    1.1 is basically very, very good result. Some call it almost ideal. So, keeping the contacts minimal, virus is moving in closed "system" (family, etc.) and at some point, due to the "lack of clients" its starts to disappear. I would be very interested to hear about these stats. We have Saaremaa Island, at the moment, proved cases are nearly 90 cases per 10 000 people. And they are not testing everyone and if virus is running in family, these are not taken into account. realistically, it means that almost every 100th person has virus. And if we read studdies that 15-20 % cases are normally discovered, we can say that at least every 20th person in the island has or has had virus. that means, in every bus you have 2, in every ferry you have 10 etc. They have similar plan there as well that maybe in the future they do some test to see who has resistance for the virus.
    Colins Crest = Möldri Mätas

  4. #134
    Senior Member Mirek's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2007
    Location
    Prague / Eastern Bohemia
    Posts
    20,780
    Like
    6,331
    Liked 8,557 Times in 3,459 Posts
    An interesting study of the transmission is here. Even if the absolute numbers may be disputed the general message about the measures and their impact is interesting. Especially the role of time of response/application of the measures: https://science.sciencemag.org/conte...cience.abb6105

    Of course with the first country it is difficult to set the day 1 since it takes time to find out that something new is happening but on the other hand in the other countries the first detected case also wasn't the real number 1 I guess. Anyway it's important to note that China introduced brutal measures at day 23 while US is at day 71 now and till day 60 or so they did exactly nothing. Even now the measures are nowhere close to the level of Chinese ones (quite impossible in the western world to be honest). UK is now in day 64. Here in CZ the social distancing measures were applied starting from day 13 (getting stricted during the following days).
    Stupid is as stupid does. Forrest Gump

  5. #135
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Aug 2007
    Location
    Athens
    Posts
    21,927
    Like
    7,776
    Liked 12,432 Times in 5,506 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Mirek View Post
    Anyway it's important to note that China introduced brutal measures at day 23 while US is at day 71 now and till day 60 or so they did exactly nothing. Even now the measures are nowhere close to the level of Chinese ones (quite impossible in the western world to be honest). UK is now in day 64. Here in CZ the social distancing measures were applied starting from day 13 (getting stricted during the following days).
    there is nice chart to compare some countries.


  6. #136
    Senior Member Gregor-y's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2011
    Location
    Chicago
    Posts
    1,006
    Like
    244
    Liked 111 Times in 66 Posts
    The governor of Georgia claimed yesterday he didn't know it could be transmitted asymptomatically "until 24 hours ago."

    With that kind of stunning ignorance or dishonesty the US is in for a rough time. Plenty of other governors were or still are refusing to take any steps, and the federal government under Trump is not taking a lead or responsibility for coordinating a national response unless it can be cast as a self-congratulatory sound bite for TV.

  7. #137
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Dec 2008
    Posts
    1,149
    Like
    3
    Liked 364 Times in 175 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Fast Eddie WRC View Post
    It was tough on northern Italy which got the virus first from Chinese tourisits. They seemed to.lockdown pretty quick but it still took hold.

    The UK found the first cases in two Chinese students and they were quickly isolated so didnt spread it here.

    Then UK citizens flown back from China were quarantined for two weeks and didnt spread it.

    The big mistake was allowing 1000's of ski tourists to come back home from N.Italy unchecked.
    Blaming it on ski tourists coming back is naivety at its finest when it comes to the UK.

    For months and months there have been dozens of flights EVERY DAY in the UK from all parts of the world already affected by the virus with no checks or even advice given out.

    Indeed, it's still the case now! There have been no proactive attempts to stop the movement of people into the UK, other than the natural attrition of flights because the airlines are grounding their fleets....

  8. Likes: dimviii (2nd April 2020),Katvala (2nd April 2020),WRC1 (3rd April 2020)
  9. #138
    Senior Member Rally Power's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2008
    Location
    Portugal
    Posts
    2,766
    Like
    3,464
    Liked 2,670 Times in 1,214 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Gregor-y View Post
    The governor of Georgia claimed yesterday he didn't know it could be transmitted asymptomatically "until 24 hours ago."
    With that kind of stunning ignorance or dishonesty the US is in for a rough time. Plenty of other governors were or still are refusing to take any steps, and the federal government under Trump is not taking a lead or responsibility for coordinating a national response unless it can be cast as a self-congratulatory sound bite for TV.
    You can call me naïve, but I do think that the best chance to get over this nigthmare will come from the US, despite those in government. No other country has the biotech resources to get a vaccine ASAP and develop new drugs meanwhile. Fingers crossed!
    Rally addict since 1982

  10. #139
    Senior Member Fast Eddie WRC's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2010
    Location
    Great Britain
    Posts
    13,558
    Like
    2,668
    Liked 6,465 Times in 3,407 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by rallyfiend View Post
    Blaming it on ski tourists coming back is naivety at its finest when it comes to the UK.

    For months and months there have been dozens of flights EVERY DAY in the UK from all parts of the world already affected by the virus with no checks or even advice given out.

    Indeed, it's still the case now! There have been no proactive attempts to stop the movement of people into the UK, other than the natural attrition of flights because the airlines are grounding their fleets....
    Last night the BBC News called Italy the 'epicentre of the outbreak in Europe' and it is clearly the place where the worst and largest outbreak began.

    Flights out of China and the Far East were the first to be reduced and then stopped.

    Returnees from N.Italy were in large numbers. They may not be the only source of UK infections but are surely the largest.
    Chris Ingram (GBR) - Ross Whittock (GBR)
    * European Rally Champions *

  11. #140
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Dec 2008
    Posts
    1,149
    Like
    3
    Liked 364 Times in 175 Posts
    Quote Originally Posted by Fast Eddie WRC View Post
    Last night the BBC News called Italy the 'epicentre of the outbreak in Europe' and it is clearly the place where the worst and largest outbreak began.

    Flights out of China and the Far East were the first to be reduced and then stopped.

    Returnees from N.Italy were in large numbers. They may not be the only source of UK infections but are surely the largest.
    That's just not at all true.

    There have been commercial flights to and from China, Iran, Italy etc up until last week. And with no screening of any kind.

    Don't confuse British Airways stopping their flights with flights being stopped...

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •