Quote Originally Posted by Fast Eddie WRC View Post
It's so annoying how they keep saying Italy, Spain and now the USA have more cases and deaths than China had. The official death figures from China are a blatant lie.

Crematoria and morgue workers just in Wuhan estimate the number of deaths in the city as 46,000 !
This is a bit too dramatic, to make move more dramatic. I was also analyzing this and I found that number of deaths by Virus in Wuhan was likely around 17-19k. You know, everything was locked down for two months. people tend to die every day and they must be placed somewhere. And if you have such situation, you burn them all. So, in two months period there should be natural deaths approximately 25k people (+/-1k). if there was 46 k, we had confirmed 3 k, we should get 46k-3k-25k(+/-1k)= 17-19 k. So, people likely infected was likely 1.7 -1.9 million. Mortality rate might be around 1%. It is stil hard to calculate, but it seems that it is the case with cruise ships where you have controlled environment and no political "hiding."
So, for US, I calculated that number of dead people by the end of today should be 5500 and by 15th of April, ca 240 k. Lets see, luckily they are slightly behind the schedule.

The problem with this flue is very easy to get infected and very hidden transmission, that means number of infected people is high and worst cases all need intensive care (some say 10%, but it is not clear yet, because noone knows exact number of infected people, and with natural progression, most of the countries do not have the capacity to put so many people in intensive care in one month or so. 1% might look small number. But lets take Italy, you have over 60 million people, that means, can have 600 000 people dead and upt to 6 million in intensive care? Probably the 10% is smaller, but even if it is like 5%, it is still 3 million people.