Covid-19 Pandemic (Corona Virus)

[denkimi]

yep. 25000 on 5,526,216 cases. now, do the math and say again your final line...

6000 deaths on an estimated 650.000 cases. should be about 50.000 deaths if it would ever infect the same number of people.

that's about two to three years worth of flu.

That's spread over many months, and across entire countries. Try getting this many in a small region and over a matter of weeks....

the average flu epidemic lasts 5 weeks, killing thousands a day at its peak.
the average flu epidemic kills about 10% of hospitalized patients, corona kills about 9%.

yes its bad, yes it kills people. but looking at it objectively, it is really not that bad that we should shut down the entire economy. we accept much bigger numbers of deaths from other causes without creating a fuzz about it.

[Mirek]

6000 deaths on an estimated 650.000 cases. should be about 50.000 deaths if it would ever infect the same number of people.

that's about two to three years worth of flu.


the average flu epidemic lasts 5 weeks, killing thousands a day at its peak.
the average flu epidemic kills about 10% of hospitalized patients, corona kills about 9%.

yes its bad, yes it kills people. but looking at it objectively, it is really not that bad that we should shut down the entire economy. we accept much bigger numbers of deaths from other causes without creating a fuzz about it.

Many more people don't die only because of those measures. You keep bringing completely idiotic comparisons.

[liposh]

At least now we know we should do the quarantine earlier and make it 2 weeks of 100% quarantine, nobody out of his house, closed borders worldwide and after those two weeks open everything again. This crisis will kill thousands and thousands people worlwide because of suicides, homelessness and hunger within next two years. The economical crisis is bigger problem than COVID itself. I hope you agree with that Mirek.

[KiwiWRCfan]

The economical crisis is bigger problem than COVID itself.

I don't think I have ever read a statement in the forum I could more strongly disagree with. Much better to be alive in a few months and dealing with economic crisis than have had exponentially higher numbers of deaths from Covid-19. Now is the time to STAY HOME AND SAVE LIVES ! ! !

[liposh]

And you are not worried about next year they can close the borders for 6 months because of standard flu epidemy? Because the numbers, mortality and even reproduction number R0 =2-3 are very simmilar. It is not like one person can spread flu to 2 another people and COVID to 50. It is still R0=2-3 for both. This number is the only one important for this discussion. So they are moving or even canceling Olympic games because of flu. And as I said before: The chance that (for example) a postman can cough standard flu into my grandma´s face and it will be terminal for her is 100x bigger (and I am not exaggerating) and they are not canceling Olympic games because of my granny in normal situation.

[AnttiK7]

And you are not worried about next year they can close the borders for 6 months because of standard flu epidemy? Because the numbers, mortality and even reproduction number R0 =2-3 are very simmilar. It is not like one person can spread flu to 2 another people and COVID to 50. It is still R0=2-3 for both. This number is the only one important for this discussion. So they are moving or even canceling Olympic games because of flu. And as I said before: The chance that (for example) a postman can cough standard flu into my grandma´s face and it will be terminal for her is 100x bigger (and I am not exaggerating) and they are not canceling Olympic games because of my granny in normal situation.

We simply don't know enough of what the long term effects are of catching this virus...for anyone, no matter how healthy or young you are. It's still too new, we have only data for a couple of months and that's it. That's nothing really. We already know it is really bad for vulnerable and old people. However, there are also cases of young and healthy people without underlying health conditions, whose lungs have been seriously compromised by this virus and even long time afterwards, they haven't recovered even close back to normal.

Here's one example:
https://www.bbc.com/sport/africa/52010616

"Although the most severe symptoms (extreme fever) have eased, I am still struggling with serious fatigue and a residual cough that I can't shake," said the six-time world champion.
"Any physical activity like walking leaves me exhausted for hours."

Now is really not the time to play Russian roulette and worry about economy. Always better to be poor and healthy than rich and sick. I'll happily take significant economic hardship and face long unemployment, over catching this virus and then spreading it to other people more vulnerable than me. Much easier then also to rebuild the economy some day with a healthy population. It's amazing there are still some countries who are clearly not taking this seriously enough and have chosen the Russian roulette approach (Sweden). Stay home people.

[Päss1928]

And you are not worried about next year they can close the borders for 6 months because of standard flu epidemy? Because the numbers, mortality and even reproduction number R0 =2-3 are very simmilar. It is not like one person can spread flu to 2 another people and COVID to 50. It is still R0=2-3 for both. This number is the only one important for this discussion. So they are moving or even canceling Olympic games because of flu. And as I said before: The chance that (for example) a postman can cough standard flu into my grandma´s face and it will be terminal for her is 100x bigger (and I am not exaggerating) and they are not canceling Olympic games because of my granny in normal situation.

Have you compared the mortality rates? 0.1% vs agreed 2-3%. Italy's current official statistics suggest 9.5%.

[Mirek]

And you are not worried about next year they can close the borders for 6 months because of standard flu epidemy? Because the numbers, mortality and even reproduction number R0 =2-3 are very simmilar. It is not like one person can spread flu to 2 another people and COVID to 50. It is still R0=2-3 for both. This number is the only one important for this discussion. So they are moving or even canceling Olympic games because of flu. And as I said before: The chance that (for example) a postman can cough standard flu into my grandma´s face and it will be terminal for her is 100x bigger (and I am not exaggerating) and they are not canceling Olympic games because of my granny in normal situation.

That is simply wrong in everthing you wrote.

Incubation period of flu 1-2 days, with covid-19 14 days

People with covid-19 are infectious up to two weeks before they get ill or may not be ill at all and despite that they are infectious and can cause infection of hundreds of people during such a long non-symptomatic period. That is not the case with flu.

Infection rate of flu is around 1,3. Of covid-19 it is 2,6-3,0 per recent studies. That is huge difference and totally incomparable especially in combination with the previous point. Much higher infection rate in combination with long non-symptomatic incubation period means that one single person can infect thousands before he even gets ill.

Flu is seasonal. Covid-19 most likely isn't because it spreads in warmer countries as well.

Mortality rate is not similar at all. It is similar only if there are very early and very strong social distancing measures applied and not without them! You can not compare situations where for one illness you let free spread and for the other you do everything possible to stop it and than compare the number of ill and dead people. That's rubbish. Currently of the closed cases in Italy 45% died and all over the globe 14%.

Mortality rate is low ONLY till the point when the medical system is saturated. After that it skyrockets. Without social distancing measures that point comes in two to three weeks, after that no matter what you say and no matter how you try to downplay you must anyway deploy those social distancing measures because there is no other choice left. As a result you get way more dead people and way bigger economic damage than if you did it early!

The economic argument is stupid too. We have already enough proofs that letting the epidemic to develop cause in the end much bigger economic problems than to fight it. In the end even UK and USA found that they have to apply the social distancing measures or they face a countrywide disaster.

[Fast Eddie WRC]

So why are you doing this guys? :O
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-london-52003076

Yep but at least that's people going to work.

This was the main cause of the lockdown - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-51994504 https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-norfolk-52005033

IDIOTS !!

Great work by locals:

[tonis_t]

And you are not worried about next year they can close the borders for 6 months because of standard flu epidemy? Because the numbers, mortality and even reproduction number R0 =2-3 are very simmilar. It is not like one person can spread flu to 2 another people and COVID to 50. It is still R0=2-3 for both. This number is the only one important for this discussion. So they are moving or even canceling Olympic games because of flu. And as I said before: The chance that (for example) a postman can cough standard flu into my grandma´s face and it will be terminal for her is 100x bigger (and I am not exaggerating) and they are not canceling Olympic games because of my granny in normal situation.

All anybody can say is check your sources... R0 is not so similar and incubation time while contagious is way longer for corona than flu without symptoms. Hospitalization rate is way higher on corona than flu. Flu can be fought with vaccines, corona does not have vaccine. It is the snowball effect that is fought against with those measures. All the people who know what is going on, doctors, and other scientists say that you are not correct and your info is wrong.
Lets look at Italy for example:
Since the start of flu season in October 2019, 2,768,000 cases across the country have been confirmed by laboratory tests, according to data from InfluNet published on January 19.

A total of 488,000 cases were reported last week alone, signalling that flu season is hitting its peak in January as predicted. 240 deaths have so far been reported, slightly lower than the expected 258. Most of the fatal cases are elderly patients who suffered complications after contracting the virus
Now lets see corona in Italy:63,927 confirmed cases and 6077 deaths as of yesterday. The numbers do not look similar to influenza do they?
https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/tt3M...mparison_1.jpg
However let's just agree that this is all overblown and totally stupid reaction, doctors do not know what they are talking about and you got your stuff right.
Sources: text about influenza: https://www.thelocal.it/20200123/flu...down-in-a-week
source of statistics of influenza. Mentioned in link above:https://www.epicentro.iss.it/influen...gione-in-corso
Source of info about corona in italy:https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/