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  1. #491
    Senior Member Mirek's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lead View Post
    EDIT: Tyre choice is really tricky thing when you have conditions like last weekend. In WRC there is a weather crew working for you on that, but when you are on your own with incomplete information, thats different. He went for risk and it didnt work out. That happens.
    The following is not exactly about Mikkelsen since I don't know his conditons.

    This is a thing many people tend to overlook. Things like this play huge role and of course to have them properly sorted costs money. A lot of money which is not dedicated to the cost of the car and its running and which is therefore often ignored in discussions about budgets and cost saving. The thing however is that often it is better to spend much more and get the result instead of spending less and getting nothing back. In other words to succeed from time to time with limited budget is possible but to succeed systematically in a long run needs more than a driver and a car.
    Stupid is as stupid does. Forrest Gump

  2. Likes: dimviii (1st December 2020),Jeppe (1st December 2020),pantealex (1st December 2020)
  3. #492
    Senior Member Sulland's Avatar
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    When tricky conditions, it is always smart to "spy" on the best local drivers to see what kind of tires they put on.
    They have driven same kind of roads many times before, and have good weather intel from friends out on the stages.

  4. Likes: Jarek Z (1st December 2020),Lead (1st December 2020),PLuto (3rd December 2020),Rally Power (1st December 2020)
  5. #493
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sulland View Post
    When tricky conditions, it is always smart to "spy" on the best local drivers to see what kind of tires they put on.
    They have driven same kind of roads many times before, and have good weather intel from friends out on the stages.
    Exactly, thats a thing I always wonder about. If not sure, you can always seek more info from local drivers. Who else would know better?

  6. #494
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lead View Post
    Exactly, thats a thing I always wonder about. If not sure, you can always seek more info from local drivers. Who else would know better?
    we used to do it even with just rally fans they happened to be friends.They were spread at many stages,and plenty of times we had usefull weather info real time from various parts of stages.

  7. #495
    Senior Member Jarek Z's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sulland View Post
    When tricky conditions, it is always smart to "spy" on the best local drivers to see what kind of tires they put on.
    Maybe it didn't come to his mind, he spent most of the time in WRC and there are usually no local drivers in WRC
    http://www.rallymadness.prv.pl - rally photos and movies!

  8. #496
    Senior Member Mirek's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lead View Post
    Exactly, thats a thing I always wonder about. If not sure, you can always seek more info from local drivers. Who else would know better?
    That's hardly a bullet proof solution. Let's say better than nothing but still very unrealiable.

    Quote Originally Posted by dimviii View Post
    we used to do it even with just rally fans they happened to be friends.They were spread at many stages,and plenty of times we had usefull weather info real time from various parts of stages.
    That is definitely good thing to do however there are still plenty of places where you have no GSM signal and uusally that happens especially in the events where the choice is the hardest (the famous Monte Carlo 2011 Škoda tyre fuck-up - we were on that critical stage but there was no GSM signal anywhere so even when we wanted we could not give any info).
    Stupid is as stupid does. Forrest Gump

  9. #497
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mirek View Post
    That is definitely good thing to do however there are still plenty of places where you have no GSM signal and uusally that happens especially in the events where the choice is the hardest (the famous Monte Carlo 2011 Škoda tyre fuck-up - we were on that critical stage but there was no GSM signal anywhere so even when we wanted we could not give any info).
    yes thats a problem that we had come through.Sometimes walking 3-4 corners away you could find signal,but there were stages that there wasnt at all signal for kms

  10. #498
    Senior Member PLuto's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mirek View Post
    That's hardly a bullet proof solution. Let's say better than nothing but still very unrealiable.
    But still more reliable than believe to Skoda engineers

  11. Likes: Tom K (3rd December 2020)
  12. #499
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    Pirelli engineers usually send info (usually with a lot of photos and descriptions of conditions on stages) from the stages before crew leave service and send what they think is the best option. In most cases, you see drivers not following them and trying to gamble by themselves.

    For example, in Hungary no one of the top drivers chose what Pirelli had suggested for the first leg's loop. In Canarias, on Friday morning, Pirelli's suggestion was a mix of wet + supersofts....

  13. #500
    Senior Member PLuto's Avatar
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    Maybe you will be interested to see my "title chances" calculations before Canarias

    General classification:

    a) if Lindholm will stay in results of Latvia and points will remain unchanged
    Lukyanuk - in case of Solberg win with full 40 points, he needs to score at least 21 points to be champion
    Lukyanuk - if Solberg score at least 28 points, he needs to score at least 9 points (and it continues 29-10, 30-11, 31-12, 32-13, 33-14, 34-15, 35-16, 36-17, 37-18, 38-19, 39-20, 40-21)

    Solberg - to be a champion, he needs to score at least 28 points and at least 20 points more than Lukyanuk (Lukyanuk will be deleting 8 points from Hungary), so Solberg will be champion if points will be 28-0, 28-1, 28-2, 28-3, 28-4, 28-5, 28-6, 28-7, 28-8, 29-9, 30-10, 31-11, 32-12, 33-13, 34-14, 35-15, 36-16, 37-17, 38-18, 39-19, 40-20)

    Without Spa, Munster cannot be a champion.


    b) if Lindholm will be excluded from Latvia and points will be redistributed
    Without Spa, situation is completely same as above (Munster has 3 points more, but it will not help him to beat Lukyanuk)


    c) as Eremeev will not start in Canarias and will be replaced by Arnautov, we can see the unique situation when champions will be Lukyanuk and Johnston...


    ERC2:

    Erdi - will be champion if he will score at least 14 points
    Melegari - to be a champion, he needs to score 27 more points than Erdi and not loose more than 5 points to Mabellini
    Mabellini - to be a champion, he needs to score at least 32 points, at least 32 more points than Erdi and at least 6 more points than Melegari

    - codrivers championship is more open, it will be fight between Csoko (Erdi) and Kokins (Feofanov). Csoko needs to score 5 more points than Kokins ; Kokins needs to score 6 points more than Csoko


    ERC3:

    Without Spa it is clear, Torn is champion, cannot be beaten


    ERC1J:
    a) if Lindholm will stay in results of Latvia and points will remain unchanged

    Munster: to be a champion, if Solberg scores at least 18 points, he needs to score at least 25, so combinations Munster-Solberg: 25-18, 26-19, 27-20, 28-21, 29-22, 30-23, 31-24, 32-25, 33-26, 34-27, 35-28, 36-29, 37-30, 38-31, 39-32, 40-33)
    Solberg: to be a champion, he needs to score at least 18 points and then at worse 6 points less than Munster, so combinations Solberg-Munster: 18-24, 19-25, 20-26, 21-27, 22-28, 23-29, 24-30, 25-31, 26-32, 27-33, 28-34, 29-35, 30-36, 31-37, 32-38, 33-39, 34-40

    Without Spa, Llarena cannot be champion


    b) if Lindholm will be excluded from Latvia and points will be redistributed
    Munster: to be a champion, if Solberg scores at least 23 points, he needs to score at least 25, so combinations Munster-Solberg: 25-23, 26-24, 27-25, 28-26, 29-27, 30-28, 31-29, 32-30, 33-31, 34-32, 35-33, 36-34, 37-35, 38-36, 39-37, 40-38)
    Solberg: to be a champion, he needs to score at least 23 points and then at worse 1 point less than Munster, so combinations Solberg-Munster: 23-24, 24-25, 25-26, 26-27, 27-28, 28-29, 29-30, 30-31, 31-32, 32-33, 33-34, 34-35, 35-36, 36-37, 37-38, 38-39, 39-40)

    Without Spa, Llarena cannot be champion


    ERC3J:

    Without Spa it is clear, Torn is champion, cannot be beaten

    ERC Teams:

    It is only about Rallye Team Spain and Sainteloc Junior Team. Both teams are nominating three cars - Llarena, Solans and Bassas vs Lukyanuk, Griebel and Furuseth.

    So they are fighting for 80 points max.


    a) if Lindholm will stay in results of Latvia and points will remain unchanged
    Rallye Team Spain: to be a champion, if Sainteloc scores at least 39 points, they needs to score at least 3 points more than Sainteloc, so winning situations: 42-39, 43-40, 44-41 etc.
    Sainteloc: to be a champion, they need to score at least 39 points and not less than 1 points than RT, so winning situations: 39-40, 40-41, 41-42 etc.

    b) if Lindholm will be excluded from Latvia and points will be redistributed
    Rallye Team Spain: to be a champion, if Sainteloc scores at least 41 points, they needs to score at least 1 points more than Sainteloc, so winning situations: 42-41, 43-42, 44-43 etc.
    Sainteloc: to be a champion, they need to score at least 41 points and at least 1 point more than RT, so winning situations: 41-40, 42-41, 43-42 etc.



    Abarth:

    Situation is clear, Mabellini is champion

    I hope I am correct with the calculations.

    In attachment I am sending also XLS file with current standings, you can write there easily all possible calculation as you want (dont forget to delete worst result if needed).

    In a summary

    General
    possible champions drivers: Alexey Lukyanuk, Oliver Solberg
    possible champions codrivers: Dmitriy Eremeev, Aaron Johnston
    possible drivers on second place: Alexey Lukyanuk, Oliver Solberg, Grégoire Munster, Efrén Llarena
    possible codrivers on second place: Dmiytiy Eremeev, Aaron Johnston, Louis Louka, Sara Fernandez
    possible drivers on third place: Oliver Solberg, Grégoire Munster, Efrén Llarena
    possible codrivers on third place: Dmiytiy Eremeev, Aaron Johnston, Louis Louka, Sara Fernandez

    ERC2
    possible champions drivers: Tibor Érdi jun., Zelindo Melegari, Andrea Mabellini
    possible champions codrivers: Zoltán Csökö, Normunds Kokins
    possible drivers on second place: Tibor Érdi jun., Zelindo Melegari, Andrea Mabellini, Dmitry Feofanov
    possible codrivers on second place: Zoltán Csökö, Corrado Bonato, Normunds Kokins
    possible drivers on third place: Tibor Érdi jun., Zelindo Melegari, Andrea Mabellini, Dmitry Feofanov
    possible codrivers on third place: Zoltán Csökö, Corrado Bonato, Normunds Kokins

    ERC3
    possible champions drivers: Ken Torn
    possible champions codrivers: Kauri Pannas
    possible drivers on second place: Josep Bassas
    possible codrivers on second place: Axel Coronado
    possible drivers on third place: Amaury Molle, Adrienn Vogel, Pedro Almeida, Ola Nore jr.
    possible codrivers on third place: Florian Barral, Ivett Notheisz, Hugo Magalhaes, Veronica Engan

    ERC1J
    possible champions drivers: Grégoire Munster, Oliver Solberg
    possible drivers on second place: Grégoire Munster, Oliver Solberg
    possible drivers on third place: Efrén Llarena, Miko Marczyk, Erik Cais, Callum Devine

    ERC3J
    possible champions drivers: Ken Torn
    possible drivers on second place: Josep Bassas
    possible drivers on third place: Dennis Rĺdström, Amaury Molle, Pedro Almeida, Ola Nore jr.

    ERC Team
    possible champion: Rallye Team Spain, Sainteloc Junior Team
    possible second place: Rallye Team Spain, Sainteloc Junior Team, Estonian Autosport Junior Team
    possible third place: Sainteloc Junior Team, Estonian Autosport Junior Team, Team MRF Tyres

    Abarth
    possible champion: Andrea Mabellini
    possible drivers on second place: Martin Rada
    possible drivers on third place: Roberto Gobbin

  14. Likes: pantealex (4th December 2020)

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