Rally Islas Canarias 2020

[Mirek]

EDIT: Tyre choice is really tricky thing when you have conditions like last weekend. In WRC there is a weather crew working for you on that, but when you are on your own with incomplete information, thats different. He went for risk and it didnt work out. That happens.

The following is not exactly about Mikkelsen since I don't know his conditons.

This is a thing many people tend to overlook. Things like this play huge role and of course to have them properly sorted costs money. A lot of money which is not dedicated to the cost of the car and its running and which is therefore often ignored in discussions about budgets and cost saving. The thing however is that often it is better to spend much more and get the result instead of spending less and getting nothing back. In other words to succeed from time to time with limited budget is possible but to succeed systematically in a long run needs more than a driver and a car.

[Sulland]

When tricky conditions, it is always smart to "spy" on the best local drivers to see what kind of tires they put on.
They have driven same kind of roads many times before, and have good weather intel from friends out on the stages.

[Lead]

When tricky conditions, it is always smart to "spy" on the best local drivers to see what kind of tires they put on.
They have driven same kind of roads many times before, and have good weather intel from friends out on the stages.

Exactly, thats a thing I always wonder about. If not sure, you can always seek more info from local drivers. Who else would know better?

[dimviii]

Exactly, thats a thing I always wonder about. If not sure, you can always seek more info from local drivers. Who else would know better?

we used to do it even with just rally fans they happened to be friends.They were spread at many stages,and plenty of times we had usefull weather info real time from various parts of stages.

[Jarek Z]

When tricky conditions, it is always smart to "spy" on the best local drivers to see what kind of tires they put on.

Maybe it didn't come to his mind, he spent most of the time in WRC and there are usually no local drivers in WRC

[Mirek]

Exactly, thats a thing I always wonder about. If not sure, you can always seek more info from local drivers. Who else would know better?

That's hardly a bullet proof solution. Let's say better than nothing but still very unrealiable.

we used to do it even with just rally fans they happened to be friends.They were spread at many stages,and plenty of times we had usefull weather info real time from various parts of stages.

That is definitely good thing to do however there are still plenty of places where you have no GSM signal and uusally that happens especially in the events where the choice is the hardest (the famous Monte Carlo 2011 Škoda tyre fuck-up - we were on that critical stage but there was no GSM signal anywhere so even when we wanted we could not give any info).

[dimviii]

That is definitely good thing to do however there are still plenty of places where you have no GSM signal and uusally that happens especially in the events where the choice is the hardest (the famous Monte Carlo 2011 Škoda tyre fuck-up - we were on that critical stage but there was no GSM signal anywhere so even when we wanted we could not give any info).

yes thats a problem that we had come through.Sometimes walking 3-4 corners away you could find signal,but there were stages that there wasnt at all signal for kms

[PLuto]

That's hardly a bullet proof solution. Let's say better than nothing but still very unrealiable.

But still more reliable than believe to Skoda engineers

[Co-driven]

Pirelli engineers usually send info (usually with a lot of photos and descriptions of conditions on stages) from the stages before crew leave service and send what they think is the best option. In most cases, you see drivers not following them and trying to gamble by themselves.

For example, in Hungary no one of the top drivers chose what Pirelli had suggested for the first leg's loop. In Canarias, on Friday morning, Pirelli's suggestion was a mix of wet + supersofts....

[PLuto]

Maybe you will be interested to see my "title chances" calculations before Canarias

General classification:

a) if Lindholm will stay in results of Latvia and points will remain unchanged
Lukyanuk - in case of Solberg win with full 40 points, he needs to score at least 21 points to be champion
Lukyanuk - if Solberg score at least 28 points, he needs to score at least 9 points (and it continues 29-10, 30-11, 31-12, 32-13, 33-14, 34-15, 35-16, 36-17, 37-18, 38-19, 39-20, 40-21)

Solberg - to be a champion, he needs to score at least 28 points and at least 20 points more than Lukyanuk (Lukyanuk will be deleting 8 points from Hungary), so Solberg will be champion if points will be 28-0, 28-1, 28-2, 28-3, 28-4, 28-5, 28-6, 28-7, 28-8, 29-9, 30-10, 31-11, 32-12, 33-13, 34-14, 35-15, 36-16, 37-17, 38-18, 39-19, 40-20)

Without Spa, Munster cannot be a champion.


b) if Lindholm will be excluded from Latvia and points will be redistributed
Without Spa, situation is completely same as above (Munster has 3 points more, but it will not help him to beat Lukyanuk)


c) as Eremeev will not start in Canarias and will be replaced by Arnautov, we can see the unique situation when champions will be Lukyanuk and Johnston...


ERC2:

Erdi - will be champion if he will score at least 14 points
Melegari - to be a champion, he needs to score 27 more points than Erdi and not loose more than 5 points to Mabellini
Mabellini - to be a champion, he needs to score at least 32 points, at least 32 more points than Erdi and at least 6 more points than Melegari

- codrivers championship is more open, it will be fight between Csoko (Erdi) and Kokins (Feofanov). Csoko needs to score 5 more points than Kokins ; Kokins needs to score 6 points more than Csoko


ERC3:

Without Spa it is clear, Torn is champion, cannot be beaten


ERC1J:
a) if Lindholm will stay in results of Latvia and points will remain unchanged

Munster: to be a champion, if Solberg scores at least 18 points, he needs to score at least 25, so combinations Munster-Solberg: 25-18, 26-19, 27-20, 28-21, 29-22, 30-23, 31-24, 32-25, 33-26, 34-27, 35-28, 36-29, 37-30, 38-31, 39-32, 40-33)
Solberg: to be a champion, he needs to score at least 18 points and then at worse 6 points less than Munster, so combinations Solberg-Munster: 18-24, 19-25, 20-26, 21-27, 22-28, 23-29, 24-30, 25-31, 26-32, 27-33, 28-34, 29-35, 30-36, 31-37, 32-38, 33-39, 34-40

Without Spa, Llarena cannot be champion


b) if Lindholm will be excluded from Latvia and points will be redistributed
Munster: to be a champion, if Solberg scores at least 23 points, he needs to score at least 25, so combinations Munster-Solberg: 25-23, 26-24, 27-25, 28-26, 29-27, 30-28, 31-29, 32-30, 33-31, 34-32, 35-33, 36-34, 37-35, 38-36, 39-37, 40-38)
Solberg: to be a champion, he needs to score at least 23 points and then at worse 1 point less than Munster, so combinations Solberg-Munster: 23-24, 24-25, 25-26, 26-27, 27-28, 28-29, 29-30, 30-31, 31-32, 32-33, 33-34, 34-35, 35-36, 36-37, 37-38, 38-39, 39-40)

Without Spa, Llarena cannot be champion


ERC3J:

Without Spa it is clear, Torn is champion, cannot be beaten

ERC Teams:

It is only about Rallye Team Spain and Sainteloc Junior Team. Both teams are nominating three cars - Llarena, Solans and Bassas vs Lukyanuk, Griebel and Furuseth.

So they are fighting for 80 points max.


a) if Lindholm will stay in results of Latvia and points will remain unchanged
Rallye Team Spain: to be a champion, if Sainteloc scores at least 39 points, they needs to score at least 3 points more than Sainteloc, so winning situations: 42-39, 43-40, 44-41 etc.
Sainteloc: to be a champion, they need to score at least 39 points and not less than 1 points than RT, so winning situations: 39-40, 40-41, 41-42 etc.

b) if Lindholm will be excluded from Latvia and points will be redistributed
Rallye Team Spain: to be a champion, if Sainteloc scores at least 41 points, they needs to score at least 1 points more than Sainteloc, so winning situations: 42-41, 43-42, 44-43 etc.
Sainteloc: to be a champion, they need to score at least 41 points and at least 1 point more than RT, so winning situations: 41-40, 42-41, 43-42 etc.



Abarth:

Situation is clear, Mabellini is champion

I hope I am correct with the calculations.

In attachment I am sending also XLS file with current standings, you can write there easily all possible calculation as you want (dont forget to delete worst result if needed).

In a summary

General
possible champions drivers: Alexey Lukyanuk, Oliver Solberg
possible champions codrivers: Dmitriy Eremeev, Aaron Johnston
possible drivers on second place: Alexey Lukyanuk, Oliver Solberg, Grégoire Munster, Efrén Llarena
possible codrivers on second place: Dmiytiy Eremeev, Aaron Johnston, Louis Louka, Sara Fernandez
possible drivers on third place: Oliver Solberg, Grégoire Munster, Efrén Llarena
possible codrivers on third place: Dmiytiy Eremeev, Aaron Johnston, Louis Louka, Sara Fernandez

ERC2
possible champions drivers: Tibor Érdi jun., Zelindo Melegari, Andrea Mabellini
possible champions codrivers: Zoltán Csökö, Normunds Kokins
possible drivers on second place: Tibor Érdi jun., Zelindo Melegari, Andrea Mabellini, Dmitry Feofanov
possible codrivers on second place: Zoltán Csökö, Corrado Bonato, Normunds Kokins
possible drivers on third place: Tibor Érdi jun., Zelindo Melegari, Andrea Mabellini, Dmitry Feofanov
possible codrivers on third place: Zoltán Csökö, Corrado Bonato, Normunds Kokins

ERC3
possible champions drivers: Ken Torn
possible champions codrivers: Kauri Pannas
possible drivers on second place: Josep Bassas
possible codrivers on second place: Axel Coronado
possible drivers on third place: Amaury Molle, Adrienn Vogel, Pedro Almeida, Ola Nore jr.
possible codrivers on third place: Florian Barral, Ivett Notheisz, Hugo Magalhaes, Veronica Engan

ERC1J
possible champions drivers: Grégoire Munster, Oliver Solberg
possible drivers on second place: Grégoire Munster, Oliver Solberg
possible drivers on third place: Efrén Llarena, Miko Marczyk, Erik Cais, Callum Devine

ERC3J
possible champions drivers: Ken Torn
possible drivers on second place: Josep Bassas
possible drivers on third place: Dennis Rådström, Amaury Molle, Pedro Almeida, Ola Nore jr.

ERC Team
possible champion: Rallye Team Spain, Sainteloc Junior Team
possible second place: Rallye Team Spain, Sainteloc Junior Team, Estonian Autosport Junior Team
possible third place: Sainteloc Junior Team, Estonian Autosport Junior Team, Team MRF Tyres

Abarth
possible champion: Andrea Mabellini
possible drivers on second place: Martin Rada
possible drivers on third place: Roberto Gobbin