2019 Azerbaijan GP

[journeyman racer]

Testing and practice is irrelevant, and always has been.

[truefan72]

Ferrari's current situation is a strange one. In testing they have looked like they were going to dominate but for various reasons including poor decision making by the team, they have not been able to capitalise.
Meanwhile Mercedes have made the best strategy decisions as a team, and coupled with a large amount of luck, have made the best start to the season in years.

I think we have all been surprised by it. Will Ferrari get their act together and finally claim the status as being the dominant team this season? Im not so sure now..
So what are the reasons? Highest straightline speed does not necessarily equate to quickest car. Ferrari have a lower drag, higher top speed, lower downforce 'peaky' car acheived by going down the inwash route which seems to have limited their downforce envelope and therefore tyre temps operating window... while Merc, despite considering their car to still be a diva, have the opposite, providing a more versatile and perhaps more forgiving car that can be made to work well enough but over a wider range of circuits, fuel load, tyre types/wear and race conditions than the Ferrari.

Sure Ferrari are close but as Anthony Davidson said, we need to stop talking about the Ferrari advantage because under scrutiny, it clearly isn't really there.
Ferrari will no doubt also have a fair amount of 1-2 finishes this season when everything lines up well for them and Merc aren't perfect but I think by having to play catch up, coupled with my above assesment, its going to be Mercs year once again.

That is some good analysis.
Here are my general thoughts.

The main difference between Ferrari and Mercedes essentially comes down to strategy and efficiency.
There is no doubt that the Ferrari is a quick car. They should have had a 1-2 at Bahrein this year and unfortunately for them reliability and driver error cost them.
Despite what Toto, Hamilton and others say at Mercedes, that car is just about level if not more efficient than the Ferrari. I won't say they sandbagged it in Testing, because testing is just that. They went about their business and showed up in Australia ready to go. It was for the most part the media that ran with a false narrative and then continued down that path for the next 3 races. and even after yet another 1-2 finish the skyF1 team were talking about Barcelona being Ferrari's race to lose.

As to where Ferrari suffers the most is in it's decision making prior to and on race day. They got rid of Arrivibene because of that (although I thought he did a decent enough job) and somehow managed to be even worse to start off 2019. Mercedes simply don't make mistakes and offer both their drivers with an equal opportunity to win the race and strategize accordingly. Meanwhile at Ferrari they preemptively decided to make this a 1 car team and compromised leclerc accordingly. To his credit he has defied them and shown his true potential which is now forcing them to reevaluate their strategy. TBH leclerc should have had pole in Baku but starting on medium tires were not the way to go anyways.

It will be interesting to see what happens in Barcelona but hopefully we can all dissuade ourselves from the notion now, that Ferrari are the presumptive favorites coming into a GP weekend.

[Jarek Z]

Guys, have you seen this?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F5f8...58HBrw&index=3

[Nitrodaze]

Ferrari would earn my respect perpetually if they can turn this season around and defeat the mighty Mercedes. Based on what we have seen so far, l seriously doubt it. A good boost to their campaign would be to sack their strategist in my opinion. He or she is a waste of space.

Binotto is a nice guy but he has had a woeful start to his tenure as team boss. As it is, Ferrari has not changed much. They still make the same mistakes. They have no excuse, they have two championship winning drivers in their car, one [Leclerc] of which is clearly giving the Mercedes pair alot of trouble because of his fast pace and Ferrari have what most believe to be the fastest car on the grid.

Ferrari's failure to win the title this year would be their biggest defeat in my opinion. As they would have failed on all fronts except their driver lineup and brilliant car.

[airshifter]

Overall not a bad race, but the real action was back in the pack more than in the front. I thought for sure Leclerc would bag a pole, but that curb bit him fairly hard.

It seemed to me that up front Bottas had things covered fairly well. Lewis stayed close enough to make the best of any big mistakes, but they just never came. It will be interesting to see if Bottas can keep the challenge going, and right now it might be the only chance we have for a real WDC fight. Ferrari seems intent on taking a car that should be able to challenge and somehow screwing up strategy or having a driver make it hard. All things considered a good recovery drive by Leclerc and a decent race for Seb as well, but nothing to challenge the Merc.

[Nitrodaze]

Ferrari have a lower drag, higher top speed, lower downforce 'peaky' car acheived by going down the inwash route which seems to have limited their downforce envelope and therefore tyre temps operating window... while Merc, despite considering their car to still be a diva, have the opposite, providing a more versatile and perhaps more forgiving car that can be made to work well enough but over a wider range of circuits, fuel load, tyre types/wear and race conditions than the Ferrari.

Quite true, Ferrari seem to have a narrower setup window than the Mercedes W10. I have heard terms like knife edge setup characteristic used to describe the Ferrari car. This season has seen Ferrari with the worst start to their season since 2016, l think. Over the last two seasons, they had a win or two at this stage of the season. This goes to show that Ferrari have a real problem extracting the true potential of their car at most tracks at the moment. When they do, chances are Mercedes would be overhauled by the very rapid Leclerc and their handsome lead may be gradually whittled away by regular Ferrari one twos. But that is assuming that Mercedes do not also unlock the potential of their new W10 car before they do.

I suspect that Mercedes' deficit to the Ferrari advantage is more terminal than the challenges facing Ferrari. It would seem Ferrari just need to sort out their setup gremlin to be in position to smash the competition consistently for the rest of the season. However that is easily said than done. Mercedes with an inadequate car may win both titles this year due to another Ferrari inability to capitalize on their performance superiority.

[journeyman racer]

the mighty Mercedes.r.

Mercedes with an inadequate car .

Which one is it?

[Nitrodaze]

Which one is it?

Yea, damn right you are, there is nothing inadequate about the Mercedes W10 really. The Spanish GP free practise says that much. Well until Ferrari finds their mojo or not.

[journeyman racer]

It would not surprise me if perceptions of last year's MB was more down to Bottas underperforming.