11th February 2019, 16:39
WRC Fan - A Free Prediction Platform By WRC fans
Hi WRC Fans!
I'd like to introduce you a free WRC results predicting site that is developed by couple of WRC fans from Estonia.
I qualify myself quite a big fan - I've attended about 8 WRC events and followed WRC for the most of my life.
Before the events we always made predictions among my friends, but we didn't find any good website to help us do it.
So as a software developer myself, I decided to do create a platform just for our needs.
The plaftorm is still under development but all the vital features are already there!
- predict TOP5 for every event for which you get points if you're correct.
- create your own leagues with friends to compare your predictions and results easily!
I'd like you, Motorsport Forums' users, to be our first users outside of Estonia.
I already made a custom league for this community and to join all you have to do is follow this link:
Don't worry about missing Monte Carlo. You can create leagues starting from any event of the calendar!
So go ahead. Open the link above or this one HERE. Log in and explore the plaftorm!
We're really looking forward to your feedback on how to improve it!
12th February 2019, 20:35
There is an already ongoing predictions competition going on including results from Monte Carlo, so it would not be fair to the winners of MC to move to a new platform right now. I have agreed to manage it (with help) with a half automated excel spreadsheet for this year and I will keep this promise.
That being said, I personally believe a "third party" system, such as this one or the one by Kefdude, is the way to go in the future - possibly starting from next year. A fully automated system would reduce the time needed for managing it to practically zero and therefor there would not be a need to find a new guy to manage it on here every year. But to do that, a more or less finished and working solution would be needed a few weeks before next years first round. Since you have a whole year to develop your system, I think this will not be a problem
I joined the motorsportforums league on your site to give some feedback. If enough people join, we can consider it a parallel competition, same as with Kefdudes
Initial feedback from me:
Qustom leagues is a very good idea, this is exactly what I though was missing in Kefdude's solution. I think this is one of the reasons why it did not get that popular here - people want to compete with people they know. I might use it to create a smaller league for my friends and/or collegues later in the year. Maybe consider adding a way to password protect the leagues so random people cannot join your family's competition?
I assume you have to have a unique user name. Add an ability to change your display name for each league. This is because if for example people from this forum join, they will want to use the same name as here but it might be already taken. Similarly I would prefer to use my first name in my "family league", however it will probably be in use.
Number of predictions. Currently you have a prediction of top 5. For bigger groups that is not enough, there will be too many ties IMO. In MC we had over 70 people posting and there were quite a lot of equal scores. We predicted the top 8. Considering the numbers have been even 120 people my guess is with your system the top 10 might end up with equal scores (If the rally result is not a complete surprise). On the other hand if you have a group of 10-20 people, top 5 will be completely enough. So maybe it would be a good idea to have the ability to create custom rules for each league and the creator of the league can select if it is top 5, top 8 or anything else.
A popular rule from this forum - the lowest score in a round will be dropped for each player. This way everyone is allowed to miss a rally or just have an off weekend. Maybe this could also be one of the qustom rules.
Thats one guy's opinion anyway I wish you good luck!
Likes: pantealex (13th February 2019)
13th February 2019, 06:46
Hi. Really nice to read that you think our initiative is in the right direction. Thank you.
Originally Posted by Kradovech
We can talk about the details privately but actually migrating existing predictions to WRC Fan is not that hard. I we could pull it off.
Thank you for the detailed feedback, I add some explanation why things are like they are at the moment.
...will get administrative tools such as editing league details, member management (inviting/removing) etc.
At the moment league link should be kept private if you don't want random people to join.
We worked really hard to get something usable ready for Rally Sweden and that I think we accomplished.
Also there are a lot of improvements planned regarding the league table itself.
Public display name
... does not have to be unique. That's something different from username. This is a quick solution that works for now but might be adjusted in the future.
Predicting TOP5 and fear of ties.
I think we will see the problem as the year goes on, it's hard to draw conclusions about the point scoring system after one event. I'm quite certain the point scoring system is not perfect but that's the best we came up with at the moment. As we've stated inside the platform as well - we might change it midseason if it proves to be unbalanced or too forgiving.
About the number of predictions I think it's difficult to go over 5 because a) we only want to focus on WRC drivers (not WRC2) b) we believe positions after top 5 are too random and do not really show your knowledge/ability to predict.
In conclusion we think that If there is going to be too many ties then the point scoring system should be adjusted not the number of predictions made.
The "the lowest score in a round will be dropped for each player" rule is really interesting! We'll add it to our backlog!
14th February 2019, 19:11
Moving the pickems right now does not seem like a good idea. Automatically it would mean changing the rules I dont like doing it in the middle of the competition. It would not be fair to the guys who did well at Monte.
But if you get enough of guys here to join we could have a parrallel competition and help you test in the process. Conversion of Monte and, I guess, Sweden could be in order.
As for the predicting top 5 being sorted by the scoring system - that will be difficult to do with guys who have the exact same prediction for top 5. Predicting positions 6-10 might have a bit more luck involved but that will be balanced with lower score awards. To win you will need an accurate top5, predictions beyond that are there for ranking the guys who get the same score from top 5. Only other way of I thought of for ranking the guys is giving the better position to the guy who made the prediction earlier. The logic here being than predicting earlier is more difficult due to more uncertain weather conditions and not having observed the shakedown. i never suggested it here because I though it's a bit lame way ranking and most of all - it would have made my life more difficult.
Anyway, I suggest you try out and balance the scoring system based on past results in different pickems, for example the ones in these forums.
15th February 2019, 18:47
I have to agree with your view about moving the pickems. It will certainly make the leaders unhappy.
What I propose is that if some of you would like to try out the new platform but not lose your progress - write me a private message and I'll import your past predictions from THIS forum to WRC Fan
About predicting beyond TOP5 I still disagree. I looked it up and out of 13 rounds last year, in 7 of them at least one WRC2 driver was inside TOP 8.
I want it to be only about WRC so that's why WRC Fan draws the line with top 5 for the moment. We already have some ideas about implementing additional predictions about the event to "separate wheat from the chaff".
In my opinion comparing the time of predictions should really be the last thing to do and also predicting is locked with the start of shakedown in WRC Fan.
There probably is no silver bullet in point scoring systems and only time (and simulations ) can tell how well we do.
To sum up the post:
* We do not plan to add predicting beyond top5
* Additional predictions (details kept secret for now) are to be added during the season as the platform evolves.
Thank you again for your input!
16th February 2019, 04:14
After posting it yesterday i couldn't stop thinking about implementing a possibility to choose between different point scoring systems when creating a league. Possibly edit it later as well.
That's actually not that hard to implement and maybe that's something we'll do if we get enough divided opinions. At the moment there is already a lot in the backlog
17th February 2019, 13:08
Points for Rally Sweden predictions already available. Go and take a look how did you do!
18th February 2019, 16:28
Mexico entry list landed. Predicting is now open
Last edited by krisgerhard; 18th February 2019 at 18:11.