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  1. #31
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    Quote Originally Posted by gm99 View Post
    To be honest, Kimi hasn't really been much help to Vettel this season anyway, at least not in terms of taking points away from Hamilton.
    I don't think you can blame Kimi for that. Ferrari has not done a good enough for Kimi to steal points from Mercedes when the opportunity presented itself. But he has sacrificed his race many times to hold up the Mercedes to give Vettel a chance to retain or catch up to lead positions or build a descent gap to ensure a win. In reality he has helped Vettel alot this last two seasons.
    Last edited by Nitrodaze; 9th September 2018 at 08:25.
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  2. #32
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    Can Vettel recover some lost ground at Sochi?
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  3. #33
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    Quote Originally Posted by Nitrodaze View Post
    Can Vettel recover some lost ground at Sochi?
    To recover the ground, Vettel has to win races, almost all of them, and start finishing ahead of Hamilton. Can this happen in Sochi? Yes. I mean, our subjective probability of either Hamilton or Vettel win should be at least 80%. So yes, it can happen, but I don't think we can predict who wins the race. I suspect the morale at Mercedes is very high. The engineers and strategists have all been doing a good job, and Bottas has been a good wingman for Hamilton. We'll see.

    PS: The odds are certainly _not_ in favor of Vettel. To win the championship he needs a hyper-dominant car, like he had in 2011 or 2013, and I don't think it is happening.

  4. #34
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    Quote Originally Posted by zako85 View Post
    To recover the ground, Vettel has to win races, almost all of them, and start finishing ahead of Hamilton. Can this happen in Sochi? Yes. I mean, our subjective probability of either Hamilton or Vettel win should be at least 80%. So yes, it can happen, but I don't think we can predict who wins the race. I suspect the morale at Mercedes is very high. The engineers and strategists have all been doing a good job, and Bottas has been a good wingman for Hamilton. We'll see.

    PS: The odds are certainly _not_ in favor of Vettel. To win the championship he needs a hyper-dominant car, like he had in 2011 or 2013, and I don't think it is happening.
    I think Vettel has the car to win the championship. The Ferrari is the fastest car on the grid. Vettel has been making too many mistakes and it has cost him a 30 points deficit. The question is not if he has the car, the question is, can he beat Hamilton in a Mercedes which is marginally slower than the faster Ferrari? We have had lots of discussions about this in the past. Now is the moment of truth. He has six races left, if he can focus and be disciplined and do what he does best which is drive the Ferrari fast, maybe. If that would be enough to beat Hamilton, we would see.

    But one thing is very clear, Hamilton is the best driver of this generation. Regardless of what most might say of Alonso. I would say the greatest driver of this generation if he wins the 2018 title at Abu Dhabi.
    Last edited by Nitrodaze; 23rd September 2018 at 18:17.
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  5. #35
    Senior Member Jag_Warrior's Avatar
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    As Vettel makes error after error this season (some forced, but many unforced), I have to wonder if Alonso doesn't have it in his head... "that could be me in that Ferrari taking Hamilton to task - and I wouldn't choke!"
    "Every generation's memory is exactly as long as its own experience." --John Kenneth Galbraith

  6. #36
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jag_Warrior View Post
    As Vettel makes error after error this season (some forced, but many unforced), I have to wonder if Alonso doesn't have it in his head... "that could be me in that Ferrari taking Hamilton to task - and I wouldn't choke!"
    I have to admit, Alonso in that Ferrari may have produced an epic battle. But l think Hamilton would still be ahead because some of the errors were team errors. That said, probably not 30 points ahead.
    Last edited by Nitrodaze; 23rd September 2018 at 18:18.
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  7. Likes: truefan72 (27th September 2018)
  8. #37
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    Quote Originally Posted by Nitrodaze View Post
    I have to admit, Alonso in that Ferrari may have produced an epic battle. But l think Hamilton would still be ahead because some of the errors were team errors. That said, probably not 30 points ahead.
    Just the retirement from the German GP would have meant +25 points for Vettel and -7 for Hamilton, so Vettel would now be 8 points behind instead of 40. Second place in the Italian GP instead of 4th (and that's assuming Hamilton would have still won) would have trimmed that difference to 2 points, which is effectively a tie since the difference between first and seconds is 7 points. And these are just the two most recent blunders.

    Still, this is playing the what-if game and we know how dangerous that is. Admittedly, consistency is Alonso's game, but for a start, we don't know how fast he'd be in that Ferrari and there are many things in races happening outside his control. By instance, maybe not crashing out in Germany would have caused Vettel's engine to die a few laps later, which would also have meant a DNF and possibly a penalty for the next race.

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  10. #38
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    Quote Originally Posted by N4D13 View Post
    Just the retirement from the German GP would have meant +25 points for Vettel and -7 for Hamilton, so Vettel would now be 8 points behind instead of 40. Second place in the Italian GP instead of 4th (and that's assuming Hamilton would have still won) would have trimmed that difference to 2 points, which is effectively a tie since the difference between first and seconds is 7 points. And these are just the two most recent blunders.

    Still, this is playing the what-if game and we know how dangerous that is. Admittedly, consistency is Alonso's game, but for a start, we don't know how fast he'd be in that Ferrari and there are many things in races happening outside his control. By instance, maybe not crashing out in Germany would have caused Vettel's engine to die a few laps later, which would also have meant a DNF and possibly a penalty for the next race.
    Quite true, hindsight is a wonderful thing as we say in England. The German GP incident was down solely to Vettel, nothing to do with the car. That was the single most costly mistake that Vettel has done. This season has been full of unexpected occurences, hence we cannot yet rule out Ferrari and Vettel. But both team and driver are at a most critical point in their championship hopes of winning both or one of the championships. A situation that demands excellence, flawless operation during the next six race weekends. You could say that the next six races is a competition of excellence between the two main contenders for the championship.

    The championships can be lost or won by the slightest of error in the next six race. Mercedes and Hamilton have to be flawless to ensure they protect their lead. Ferrari being the chaser must also be 110% flawless but also ensure they get the most out of their fast car at each of the next six races. To be honest, Vettel has to win the rest of the six races to win the drivers championship comfortably. Hamilton only need to maybe win one more and finish second for the rest of the races to be the 2018 world champion and the greatest F1 driver of this hybrid generation.

    On Alonso, l think Alonso may have made less mistakes and may most likely get the most out of this fast Ferrari. If we cast our eyes back to the beginning of the season and put Alonso in the car from then, l think he probably may be leading the drivers championship at this point, if not, closely matching the Mercedes. Being the predetorial driver that he is, he may have exploited the slight advantage that Ferrari has better than Vettel has done. Would Alonso have been as fast as Vettel to put the car on pole as often as Vettel has done, is probably questionable. From a Racecraft perspective, this is unquestionable that Alonso would have found a way to be there or thereabout.

    That said, l am not sure Alonso would beat Hamilton over a season in the form that Hamilton is showing at the moment. However, it would be close enough to put immense pressure on Hamilton to be flawless up to the very last race.
    Last edited by Nitrodaze; 24th September 2018 at 16:26.
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  11. #39
    Senior Member Jag_Warrior's Avatar
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    Good points about not really knowing how fast Alonso would be in the Ferrari. I'm just going on the assumption that he'd be at least as fast as (probably faster than) Kimi.
    "Every generation's memory is exactly as long as its own experience." --John Kenneth Galbraith

  12. #40
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    C'mon guys? Alonso would be sufficiently fast to have to be leading the championship right now. All of you know it.

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