What is the 2018 grid going to look like?

**Nitrodaze** · 21st July 2016, 11:20

Firstly, lets look at those drivers that are not happy at the moment. We shall analyse further down the page.

Vettel
Vettel is not so happy with reliability issues that have bedeviled him this season. The inability to access the raw pace of the Ferrari which is reputed to be on par with the Mercedes consistently is also a bother. To make thing less interesting is the destabilizing pressure for the team to deliver. The Horner is quoted to tip a Vettel move to Mercedes in 2018.

Ricciado
Ricciado comprehensively trashed the Mercedes pair on merit at Monaco this year. As the flag came down to close the qualifying session, the smilly Australian said on the radio, "this is my time". The gritty Australian clearly felt the win was in the bag, but his Redbull team that typically operate with precision like a Swiss watch, made an uncharacteristic pit stop error which handed the win to a wily Hamilton. While you could put that instance to a blip in team performance. A recurrence in Spain where Ricciado was clearly favorite to win that race "certeri paribus", experienced a strange race strategy imposed on him that cost him the win. At this point, l am sure Ricciado has got to be thinking "What the devil is going on here?". While he is reeling from these shockers, his fiesty young protagonist, has been raking up the points like they were candies.
Looking at the Redbull psychology as they have played out over the years, you have got to think that Redbull see Verstapenn as another Vettel. And they are likely to throw their lot behind the dutchman going forward. Ricciado is faced with a Webber situation or jump ship to Ferrari or Mercedes in 2018 to have a real crack at the title.

Rosberg
After the sensational crash between Rosberg and Hamilton at Barcelona, it was very clear the hostility between the Mercedes pair is at a critical high. The morning after the Silverstone GP, seeing current tally of his previous 43 point lead reduced to one point must have left a sour taste to his mouth. You have to think that given a competitve car elsewhere, particularly where there is no Hamilton would be an irresistable draw for Rosberg. A swap of Rosberg for Vettel seems a play that could happen between Mercedes and Ferrari. But would Ferrari want Rosberg if there is a remote chance they could get Hamilton?

Button
The Englishman faces another uncertain spell of the season where everyone speculates his future. Over the last three years, the media, motor racing forums and tea leaf readers have speculated to no end, his exit from Mclaren and many possible new homes for him on the grid. Over the last two seasons, he has stubbornly proved a hard case to read. He has somehow held on to his seat and has put in performances that has proved why he is such an invaluable addition to the Mclaren team.
Then marner from heaven gave the rookie reserve driver the rare chance to show what he can do, thanks to Alonso's injury the put him out for one race. The headline was the rookie out qualified Button and managed to chalk up the first point for the team this season. An incredible performance that places a huge pressure on the Button seat. As usual, we are all talking about where is Button going in 2017? I certainly think Stoffel would be in a Mclaren by 2018 at the latest.

Bottas
Bottas was one of the highly rated newcomers over the 2014 and 2015 seasons and once tipped for a Ferrari drive, but finds his stock has dropped and is dropping further as the Williams car struggle to impress since the beginning of the 2016 season. At this rate, he would be unlikely to get a drive in another team if the Williams were to drop him. Occasionally, he shows flashes of the inherently untapped raw pace that he possesses. The truth is Bottas is too good for a team in the position that Williams find themselves this season. If Bottas wants a real chance at fighting for the title, he needs to get into a competitive car. He remains a strong choice for Kimi's replacement at Ferrari, but recently, there are other strong competition for that that seat.

Who else can you think about?

**AndyL** · 21st July 2016, 13:05

That's a good start to figuring out who will be on the grid in 2018.

To that list of unhappy drivers I would add Alonso. I can see him being gone from F1 in 2018. If the 2017 McLaren is not more to his satisfaction, I can even see him walking part way through the season.

Another pair questions to ask is who will get the boot and who will come in.
Old-timers Kimi, Massa and Button will surely be gone by 2018. Also Alonso for the reason above. Haryanto, Ericsson and Nasr will all be vulnerable to incomers with money behind them, and I'd expect at least 2 of those 3 to not make it into the 2018 season. Kvyat I think has had his chance and will also go in order to keep Red Bull's conveyor belt moving. Jolyon Palmer is 50/50. With a year under his belt he could step up next year and cement his place in F1. But if he fails to move to the next level, he'll be out in 2018.

So who will replace them? The top 2 in GP2, Rowland and Giovanazzi, must be favourites. They are both impressing in their first full season in the formula. Rowland is well placed to take Palmer's seat. Giovanazzi needs to stop messing about with DTM and LMP, but could step into a mid-ranking F1 team with perhaps Ferrari as his ultimate goal. What would Maranello give for a successful Italian driver in a red car after all these years

Pierre Gasly is at the front of Red Bull's queue, but I don't know if he's quite Red Bull material. He's taken 3 years in GP2 to get a win. Could still replace Kvyat though.
One thing I am sure of is Robin Frijns will not be in F1, despite being the next big thing for the last several years: he's now in Formula E, the graveyard of F1 ambitions.

**Morte66** · 21st July 2016, 14:00

Vettel, Ricciardo and Max V: As things stand these drivers have no reason to move unless Mercedes lose a driver.

Rosberg: is the German driver at Mercedes, and has scored plenty of points for them. Mercedes will keep their good thing going if the personality issues can be resolved. Rosberg is in the fastest team he's likely to get, and would be wise to stay if he can. So, it's about personality issues.

Hamilton: No reason other than personalities for him to move or the team to lose him.

So, I think the guys above will stay put unless there is a personality meltdown at Mercedes, or one of the teams inexplicably implodes.

Button: is on an eye-watering salary, the sort of deal that was made back when somebody thought the Honda PU would rock and Button would get more podiums than he currently gets points. He'll need to take a pay cut or move. I think by 2018 he'll be gone to WEC, or maybe finishing his contract at somewhere like Williams.

Alonso: if McLaren pick up he'll stay for 2017, and might perhaps still be there in 2018. If not, I think he'll retire unless a good drive falls in his lap (at least the current Williams/FI level).

Kimi R: 80/20 he will be gone in 2018. Lots of interesting possible replacements.

**Rollo** · 22nd July 2016, 13:42

Originally Posted by Nitrodaze

As usual, we are all talking about where is Button going in 2017?

888 Commodore.

Not telling you where I heard that either.

**AndyL** · 22nd July 2016, 14:29

Based on what's just been said on the practice coverage, it seems Ericsson should be safe as houses now. Apparently the new owners of Sauber are linked to Ericsson's backers.

**Stan Reid** · 22nd July 2016, 14:50

I wish there'd be some more teams so the drivers would actually have to qualify for the races but that doesn't look like it's going to happen.

**jens** · 26th July 2016, 12:10

2018 discussion? Where is rjbetty, when you need to predict stuff.

But for me I have to say the driver line-ups are getting somewhat stale. Both Mercedes and Red Bull drivers have contracts, which last till 2018 at least. Which means Vettel most probably stays in Ferrari, because he has nowhere to go. Which means Alonso likely stays in McLaren, because he has nowhere to go.

The main question is, who is going to fill the Renault seats in the next few years - hopefully a team on the up.

**Rollo** · 26th July 2016, 12:16

Originally Posted by Nitrodaze

As usual, we are all talking about where is Button going in 2017?

Caltex 888 Commodore.

Watch this space.

**AndyL** · 26th July 2016, 12:36

Originally Posted by Rollo

Caltex 888 Commodore.

Watch this space.

Is that the car that Button drove in a media event a few years ago?

**Rollo** · 28th July 2016, 06:06

A popular high street chemists will pre-fabricate fifteen of its branches and install them on the site of the soon to be abandoned McLaren Technology Centre.

These Boots Are Made For Woking.