Rally Wrc Monte Carlo 2017

[Munkvy]

I was bored last evening and played around in a spreadsheet a bit and calculated the difference per kilometer compared to the stage winner for each stage separately. This removes stage length from the equation but to me it shows the "raw pace" on each stage. I also made an average of these differences and a ranking based on that. The average is less relevant to the "real time" classification because the pace on all stages has equal importance to the average regardless of length but I think it can show some things about the raw speed potential.

I removed the last stage from the average per rally because that was much affected by weather and I removed data that was affected by mechanical problems but not the driver mistakes. So here are some interesting things:

1. Evans had the best pace since SS9 on average. In real-time he was 0.2s slower than Ogier on all of the stages on Saturday but that's because Ogier had a smaller advantage over longer stages while Evans had a bigger advantage on shorter stages.
2. On SS12 the stage before he crashed Neuville had his slowest pace from all of the stages so far, by some margin. Maybe he started to backed off, relaxed and lost focus? In the post stage interview he said "I have the snow tyres this afternoon. This morning we were on slicks. It was the safe choice. We have a good lead, but we have to be clever." Maybe i'm over analyzing :P
3. Latvala was on average the 4th fastest, slightly faster than Sordo. He had 6 stages where he was under 0.5s/km slower than the winner and 4 more where he was under 1s/km slower. However, Meeke and Breen were not far behind, I'm pretty sure Meeke could have outpaced him and Breen was just 0.260s/km on average slower in a 2016 car.

I dunno, maybe it's a silly thing to look at but the results fit some of my intuition/feeling.

How can you use statistics to take into account the context behind the stage times though? Ie that everyone who was on Rally2 would be under instruction to finish the rest of the rally at all costs, so naturally their pace is going to be off when they Rally2 (see Juho and Kris as good examples)... And what about the difference in tyre choice vs the correct tyre choice? I don't think you can use data unless you add in the variables that impact the validity of the data...

[stefanvv]

If you're blaming the slow times on the tyres performing worse than the competition then to be consistent you should credit his fast times with the tyres performing better than the competition. Otherwise its like trying to pull a heads-I-win/tails-you-lose coin toss, doesn't convince many people over the age of 5.

The reality is probably a combination of both tyres and driving, he's often been inconsistent in his speed in the past (sometimes blindingly fast, sometimes head-scratchingly slow) without really seeming to know why.

I think he could have perform better on snow taking more risky driving style, but at the end he seemed to keep his clean driving which probably wasn't the best solution with his tyres.

[bluuford]

Onboar of Tänak for last couple of corners: https://www.facebook.com/WorldRally/...4324412975678/
This video has already over 360 000 views!

[A FONDO]

He just slid on the last corner almost binning it while he was having pretty good margin to Sordo.

[N.O.T]

He just slid on the last corner almost binning it while he was having pretty good margin to Sordo.

he was running on 3 cylinders and also did not have any split info.

[GravelBen]

He just slid on the last corner almost binning it while he was having pretty good margin to Sordo.

he was running on 3 cylinders and also did not have any split info.

For once I agree with NOT!

Tanak didn't know he had enough margin, the ~40s he lost to Sordo on the way up the hill probably felt like about 3 minutes and he wouldn't have known how much he was gaining or losing on the downhill - he might have known that Sordo was on much worse tyres for the snow/ice, but even if he knew that he wouldn't have known what the time difference was.

He did almost overcook it, but for all he knew the place was coming down to tenths of a second so he gave it everything.

[Vahula]

He just slid on the last corner almost binning it while he was having pretty good margin to Sordo.

I think he was sliding it as much as he could. He would lose traction but keep the RPM up. Running in 3 cylinders it would benefit alot from high RPM because you would have some much less torque. Also if Sordo had passed him, also Breen have had, so he would have been 5th. He was going for the 3rd place or nothing.

[bluuford]

I was just wondering that how much more downforce and traction new aerodynamics give. What was the speed by Sordo on the last corner and Tänak? Can anyone chech from WRC+? And then someone needs to calculate the downforce :P I remember that Ott was saying that new cars offer a possibility to make big caps if you are brave. So, basically, the faster you drive, the higher is downforce.

[SubaruNorway]

Onboar of Tänak for last couple of corners: https://www.facebook.com/WorldRally/...4324412975678/
This video has already over 360 000 views!

You an half FB views since they count everyone who has autoplay on on scroll past

[Grundo Farb]

reading all these comments and conversations about Evans and Dmack makes me appreciate Tänak's 16 season even more.


for me the performance isnt weird at all, the tyre just isnt as universal as michelin.

Really? You should have said something last year about this...

Tanak talked in one of his end of stage talks about "the garbage I had last year". I think that is a bit harsh as in some conditions the DMACKS are better.

I wish Tanak all the best and enough about last year and the tyres. If anything the car let him down more.