RJ's Overview and analysis of F1 2015 so far

[rjbetty]

With the boring summer break upon us, let's waste some time and reflect on what has happened so far.

Here's my musings. Feel free to add your own and disagree

I will also compare to my pre-season predictions, both before (when I was running my Grand Prix 2 season) and after testing.



1.MERCEDES
Surprise! Who'd have thought Mercedes would continue to dominate? Sadly, with stable regs, reliability is already absolutely bulletproof, no DNFs of any kind - and it will get even worse next year. I don't understand why we moaned about 'only' getting 11 finishers in Oz, when 15yrs ago, that would be a lot. Oh how conditioned we have become! I won't even bother to say they'll win the WCC, except I just have.

Right, the drivers: Both top drawer as ever (awkwardly glances to Hungary though...) So who's the best? Stats are a funny thing, but they say this.

Qualifying: 9-1 Hamilton
Race Finish: 7-3 Hamilton (including Monaco)
Quickest in race imo (despite result): 8-2 Hamilton, or 7-3 if you count Rosberg's 5 laps in the rain at Silverstone
Average Qualifying Gap: Approx 0.250sec Hamilton

On the face of it looks like domination, yet it doesn't always look that way and Hamilton only leads by 21pts. I expect Rosberg to come back stronger in the final races as he always does.

Pre-season Grand Prix 2 had a 1-2 finish in the WDC, but Rosberg had a nightmare finishing almost 100pts down. Otherwise his performance was about right.



2.FERRARI
Wow, not bad! This will be a lesson not to write McLaren-Honda off just yet.

Drivers: Well, Vettel looks like he's doing better now he's away from Ricciardo and has the at-times deadbeat team-mate he wanted for 2014 in the first place. I would say he's done the best job of the frontrunners in putting results together over a season, Nick Heidfeld style, except much quicker.

Kimi has blown hot and cold. In Australia, he looked right up with Vettel, same for the next 3 races. He "sacrificed" Spain for testing, but since then has gone right off the boil. Maybe Seb just settled in. Anyway, sadly it's absolutely time to go I'm afraid. I feel plenty of other drivers would be doping a better job, right now.

Pre-season On GP2 they only came 6th in the championship with Vettel and Raikkonen only 10th and 11th - how wrong that was!! In my defence, this was before 2015 engine performance became clear. So with that taken into account, and good testing, which I suspected was a little bit flattering to deceive, I had them 3rd ahead of Red Bull but just behind Williams. Not too far off I guess.



3.WILLIAMS - MERCEDES
It's kinda good that this season is now considered a bit disappointing. Disappointing used to be getting 5pts per season. 3rd was a huge achievement last year. They should get the same much more easily this year.I don't know how much Toto and Merc are stuffing them, but they have some way to go. They are consolidating themselves in a top position though, so overall a thumbs up.

Drivers: While it might look like I don't think much of Massa, it's just that I felt he never was, is or will be a top elite driver, not that he can't be very good. While I wasn't expecting Bottas domination by any stretch, I am surprised at just how well Felipe has compared. They really do seem equal.

What to make of Bottas then? In his 3rd season, maybe slightly disappointing, but so was Vettel in early 2008 (to some extent). I still rate him highly but we have to see.

Pre-season My simulation indeed had Bottas and Williams both 3rd in their respective championships, with Bottas an absolute whisker from winning Monza. The game hasn't liked Felipe at all these last 2yrs though he still did pretty well. Overall I think I called this pretty well, it's just that Ferrari being so good was unexpected.




More to follow...

[rjbetty]

4.RED BULL - RENAULT
Wow I thought they might drop out of the top 3 this season, but this takes some doing. I don't know how Renault are actually [I]worse(!)[/b] this year, might as well have stuck with last years engine! Feel sorry for the drivers; just as well Vettel isn't still there in a 3rd car, or two drivers would be beating him! Team's attitude disgusting as always, driver's much better.

If any senior member happens to read this, they should know that once I thought Red Bull was cool, and in 2003 in college I drank a can before every exam, and still believe it made the difference with me getting good grades(for where I was at), the only exam I didn't have one I didn't do so well. Now, because of the way their F1 team go about their business, I won't touch the stuff (I just have Asda's version, just 79p for a 1 litre bottle).

Ricciardo still shines, though probably not as brightly as last year. Keep smiling and driving fast. I have faith in Dani Kvyat and expect great things of him. His recent form is no surprise.

Pre-season Pretty much this, except much better!!



5.FORCE INDIA - MERCEDES
Finances finally caught up inevitably. Yet they have doggedly made the most of every opportunity except Hungary. Their reward is 5th. I worry about next year though.

Drivers: After a slow start, Hulk looks strong. He should have had that Ferrari drive in 2013 imo. He would have delivered more than Kimi Raikkonen immediately, and for much less money. His height and weight is a huge handicap, and McLaren already cited this as their reason for not signing him (just as well). If Perez had that handicap, he wouldn't look so good, I am convinced. Same applies to pipsqueak Massa.

Pre-season Well they had a dreadful time in my GP2 season, no points before picking up decent finished in the 2nd half. The real season has been the same but better.



6.LOTUS - MERCEDES
A big unknown for me, coming into the season. Looks like the resource and financial drain has hit, cos only their drivers (one of them) and Merc engine are saving them. If they were still with Renault, they would be every bit as bad as last year pretty much, imo. So a bit disappointing, but at least much better than last year. I am concerned for their future too.

Drivers: Strange one for Maldonado, incidents in every race early on, and apart from a repeat trip to the Chinese pitwall, none really his fault. Then 2 good races until being a berk in Hungary again. Can't see him lasting much longer if his money keeps devaluing. Grosjean is the underrated driver of the grid for me right now. I believe his raw speed is fantastic and I am a believer. If he was in a top car, he'd be brilliant.

Pre-season Very hard to call, but they came 5th in my game. In real life haven't been as strong as I hoped.



7.TORO ROSSO - RENAULT
You have to feel for them, dumping Ferrari for Renault power at just the wrong time. With a Ferrari engine, I bet they'd be up with the works Ferrari team for pace. Well I tipped them to be closer to Red Bull this season and look good, but they've taken it much further than I expected. I'm impressed. Still tending to be much better in qualifying than races though.

Drivers: This was hard to call between them, but I guessed Max would come out ahead, especially in races. It has actually turned out a bit closer than I thought, with Sainz being the better qualifier so far. Both are fantastic imo, and I believed in Max from the start, having seen the whole age thing before with Kimi (when he was good) and Kvyat last year.

Pre-season I think I wasn't too far off, Max getting more points, and the team coming 7th.



8.SAUBER - FERRARI
Wow a shock here with 5th and 8th in Australia. Their drivers have looked good, but being truthful, because they are rookies, last year's drivers were better. However, a change was needed and Sutil had the wrong attitude for someone so lucky to be where he was. The drivers are retained for 2016 and will do better.

But how much is just the Ferrari engine being better? Let's see. In 2014, compare the lead Sauber of Sutil to the lead Ferrari of Alonso and the gap was I think around 1.7, 1.8sec? This year, Nasr is about 1.7sec off Vettel. If I believe Nasr - as a rookie - isn't quite up with experienced Sutil yet, and Ferrari's chassis has significantly improved too, then maybe the Sauber car has taken a nice upturn too. Look set to finish 9th overall though - at least they have points.

Drivers: Nasr ahead of Ericsson as most expected. Both are decent for where they're at, but Felipe II can stick around for a bit I think.

Pre-season Happily Sauber are MUCH better than I thought. They didn't have much hope in my game. Nasr also spoiled an almost certain maiden win for Bottas at Monza, I hope he doesn't do the same in real life.




9.MCLAREN - HONDA
Oh dear! Well with such a new partnership, it could have gone either way I guess. As disastrous as it has been, I still have lots of hope, for it's not where you start that matters so much, but where you end up. I have to say I wouldn't have expected them to be where they were at this point. I still feel they are really only 9th best behind Sauber, and were only ahead in Hungary cos it was Hungary. 2 power tracks are next, but there is still room for a decent turnaround in which case they can climb up the constructors' table. I'm glad I dumped them, after much deliberation, from my FGP team, as instead of winning a race, and getting lots of podiums it would have been 2013 again. Tazio must be really starting to sweat though, my $1000 (increased for me due to exchange rate) will go towards a new car

I maintain, while gesticulating and banging my fist on the table, that McLaren have actually produced a tidy chassis, and if only there engine could match it, they'd be right up with Williams, for sure. It seems McLaren have hardly had a chance to hone it. In Australia, (remember that?) Jenson's car was actually pretty darn good in corners, it was losing most of it's time on straights. Spain was a setup aberration of some sort I think.

Drivers: Say what you like about the car and engine, the drivers can't be much faulted. While Hamilton and Vettel would be the clear 2 for top driver, most of us are forgetting Alonso! Has he done much wrong this season? Jenson has done well too, I think better than last year with that slump, but in races in particular, I'd say Hungary fairly shows the difference between them.

Pre-season Well late last year, I thought maybe Honda, with knowledge of Mercedes split turbo thingy, could hit the ground running, so I had them 2nd in the WCC. Nope. After testing, I put them a more reasonable 5th ahead of Lotus, yet that seems somewhat out of reach now - not impossible as they trail Force India by 22pts: A 4th and a 5th in a crazy race with Force India not scoring would wipe that out.




10.MANOR - FERRARI
Last but definitely not least. There are two ways to look at Manor, either as a rubbish waste of space or the heroes of F1. I lean toward the latter. I can't think of another team that has ever survived administration. I feel they are one of the best run teams in F1, and while on the surface they continue to be last, I am so happy they never give up despite having it so much against them. They have been through so much yet continue to defy expectations.

I have a real soft spot for Manor. I can truly say they are an inspiration to me and I am rooting so much for them to be able to survive and grow. I can't think of anyone who deserves some success like they do. Thumbs up.

Drivers: I am pleased with the way Will Stevens has knuckled down and done everything he can do. While we know he's not another Jim Clark or anything I am happy with both him and his team-mate who give it all they've got. Roberto Merhi has been unhappy with getting number 2 treatment, and I understand, but he just needs to understand it couldn't be helped as it's a miracle the team is even here. He is settling in and more than matching Stevens now though.

[rjbetty]

Driver Ratings:
1.Fernando Alonso - I see no reason why not. I don't see much wrong here, except his qualifying some times has been short of Jenson. Grade - A
2.Can't decide, but with Hamilton's stats against Rosberg this year, except for points (and how is that even possible, jut 21?) he is going to edge it. Even in Hungary he drove out of his skin, 2 mistakes are a black mark but I'm not sure they're enough to put him far down. I'm more concerned about what looks like lack of concentration sometimes. Even so, I couldn't quite put him below the guy who was whipped by Ricciardo last year - on [I]performance[/b] not just points. Grade - A
3.Sebastian Vettel - Nevertheless he is right there. I'd say he's definitely been steadier than Hamilton, and made more of what he has. It's something I admire, but I can't help feeling if that was the be-all end-all then Nick Heidfeld would be a 7 times world champion. Can you see my point? Can't fault Seb, but what I would really have liked to have seen, was just 1 or 2 seasons in a mess of a Ferrari before reaching where they are now - just to finally see what he's really made of. Parachuting straight into a suddenly sorted Ferrari is really lucky, and I think that's pretty fair to say. Grade - A

4.Daniel Riccccciardo
Still a top driver, if slightly forgotten, and remains the only man to beat Sebastian Vettel over an F1 season (Nick Heidfeld in 2007 doesn't count) - that's beat, not simply scored more points than. Hopefully he can replace Kimi at Ferrari soon. A shame he is locked into contract, especially as he was Ferrari's first choice when Alonso had enough and left. But he just needs to use this time of adversity to grow and be resilient, it will surely give him an advantage over other drivers who've never had that, in the future. He suffers from Kvyat not being well rated - it's actually probably a nightmare scenario, but truth will out (usually...) Grade - B+

5.Jenson Button In a very close group I have put Jenson 5th, since I guess he's still driving with that kick up the bum Ron gave him last year. Not doing badly against Alonso at all, not at all. Shouldn't be much surprise as this was the guy who scored more points than Hamilton one year, when Lewis had a meltdown. I think he should have one more year at McLaren with Magnussen going to Force India, if Hulk goes to Ferrari or Williams, and Vandoorne to cut his teeth at Manor (hint hint McLaren). Grade - B

6.Nico Rosberg Tough to know what to make really. Last season has reversed and now Hamilton qualifies well, and Rosberg goes quicker in races than qualifying. He is still behind though, despite being handed Monaco on a platter, and while at times he has looked fantastic, he has also looked pretty cr@p too. Can't fault his never say die attitude - most people would surely have given up now. If he keeps that attitude, one DNF for Lewis and he's in there! I always rated Rosberg very highly and he's proving that, making Lewis work for it all the time. I would like Rosberg to team up with Vettel one day and duke it out. Grade - B




More to follow...

[N. Jones]

When Hungary is a great race you know the season is boring.
I am sad to see Raikkonen once again being beaten by his teammate.
While the fight at the front has been mostly a foregone conclusion, the battles behind them have been interesting.
McLaren has blown so far but hopefully they will get better.
The kids have been better than expected but they haven't scored points every race. They will be fun to watch in the years to come.
I am not happy that France AND Germany were missing from this year's calendar. Remove Bahrain (no one shows up) and Abu Dhabi (a junk track) and bring these two back where they belong. (I mean Magny-Cours and Nurburgring)
I hope Marussia can move up the grid next year. I think they deserve it.
Force India. Is Vijay Mallya hurting to the point that he can't invest in the team? I guess the Indian GP would probably help but that track was boring.
Williams are on the back heel but they will get better. Button for Bottas if Valteri moves to Ferrari? Ugh. Hopefully it will be a one-day contract so Jense can retire. Put Van Doorne there and bring back Magnussen to McLaren.

BRING BACK IMOLA AND ESTORIL! DOWN WITH BAKU!

[Tazio]

Tazio must be really starting to sweat though, my $1000 (increased for me due to exchange rate) will go towards a new car.

I think you misunderstood my statement mate. Never did I say I would distribute money. I said I would give every member 1,000 USD, which I have an inexhaustible supply of!

[rjbetty]

When Hungary is a great race you know the season is boring.
I am sad to see Raikkonen once again being beaten by his teammate.
While the fight at the front has been mostly a foregone conclusion, the battles behind them have been interesting.
McLaren has blown so far but hopefully they will get better.
The kids have been better than expected but they haven't scored points every race. They will be fun to watch in the years to come.
I am not happy that France AND Germany were missing from this year's calendar. Remove Bahrain (no one shows up) and Abu Dhabi (a junk track) and bring these two back where they belong. (I mean Magny-Cours and Nurburgring)
I hope Marussia can move up the grid next year. I think they deserve it.
Force India. Is Vijay Mallya hurting to the point that he can't invest in the team? I guess the Indian GP would probably help but that track was boring.
Williams are on the back heel but they will get better. Button for Bottas if Valteri moves to Ferrari? Ugh. Hopefully it will be a one-day contract so Jense can retire. Put Van Doorne there and bring back Magnussen to McLaren.

BRING BACK IMOLA AND ESTORIL! DOWN WITH BAKU!

Good news: We might have Imola back
Bad news: It would be alternating with Monza. Then again is that sorted now?

Would rather have another French track than Magny-Cours, or Paul Ricard really. Surely there are some good ones.
Glad to see Germany back next year, now Bernie's stopped punishing them for letting him go free.

Button to Williams would be great, but at Hulkenberg's expense...



Meanwhile

7.Romain Grosjean I feel he's very fast indeed, but hard to see in that Lotus. Outqualified Pastor 9-1 so far. Grade: B

8.Nico Hulkenberg Has picked his head up since winning Le-Mans. Still, no-one wants Bulky Hulky... Grade: B-

9.Valtteri Bottas Doing a good job, but I'd have expected him to be a little clearer of Massa. I wonder how well Massa is doing this year though? Grade - B-

10.Felipe Massa He's been strong, but suffered more problems than Bottas. Still good for a while yet, but in an ideal world I'd swap him with Hulk. Grade - C+

11.Daniil Kvyat After a shaky start, mostly with reliability problems, is settling in well, and able to beat Ricciardo on good days. All still at the tender age of 21. Grade - B+

12.Sergio Perez Superb Monaco race, and other good drives, but lagging just a little lately. Grade - C

13.Kimi Raikkonen Not doing well enough in a car he likes. Some very good race pace, but some shockers too, especially in qualifying. Is capable of better. Has had almost all the misfortune at Ferrari though. Grade - C-

14.Max Verstappen Wouldn't have guessed he was 17. Obviously being so inexperienced means a few off days, but how do we think he's comparing to Kimi's 2001, who similarly had just one season of British Formula Renault? Kimi was 21 however. Certainly hasn't failed, and I think he's a star. Grade: A+

15.Carlos Sainz Won't be easily overshadowed by Max and has a good edge in qualifying. Has had his own starring roles at times, but is more experienced so you'd expect that. [/b]Grade: B[/B]

16.Felipe Nasr Probably doing every bit as well as the Toro Rosso rookies, but then he has years of GP2 experience and they don't. Has looked quite mature but inexperience has cost him more points finishes. Grade: C

17.Pastor Maldonado Very quick, but not really comparing well enough with Grosjean. Hungary starts to make you lose hope he'll ever get there - now in his 5th year- and things may be over if he doesn't shape up. Grade: D

18.Marcus Ericsson Has looked better this year but I think that's the car. Nasr handily beating him most of the time. Too many mistakes for a driver who's not particularly quick, but 3 points finishes not to be sniffed at. [b]Grade: C-

19.Roberto Merhi I think he's a bit quicker than Stevens but he had worse equipment for quite a while. Is getting into it now, but won't stick around unless he has money. Grade - D

20.Will Stevens A good attitude and fighting spirit which the team needs. He also doesn't seem to crash a lot, which is so important. I'd quite like to see him stick around another year. Grade: C-

[jens]

I'd like to write such a long post too. But...

In short...

Compared to my pre-season predictions. Well, obviously Red Bull is off, and McLaren is way off. McLaren I was sceptical of from the get-go, but they have been far more rubbish than anyone expected. Red Bull - yeah... Well, I guess the moral is that the disparity between engine performances is still huge. The expectation was before 2015 that the gaps could at least somewhat close, but only Ferrari managed it. Renault is nowhere and Honda is utterly rubbish. Sorry... McLaren is worse than Toyota, BAR/Honda and Jaguar were. This early season claim still stands firm!

As for driver performances... Kvyat is closer to Ricciardo than what I projected. I think Kvyat is a good driver and going well for a 20-year-old! But perhaps not a standout talent. Sort of what I thought of him. I think the crux of the matter is that Ricciardo hasn't been quite as good and stunningly consistent as he was last year. But I still believe Ricciardo has top-notch talent and is just going through a bit of a rough patch of form.

And Vettel is back at his best! Great to see. I as a fan was taken well aback by 2014. We can only wonder, what happened then - was he genuinely unmotivated, burnt out? Must have been. Because as seen - most of the time Vettel is in good form, and that good form means top-notch form and driving talent!

Verstappen is of course very impressive. Obviously still inexperienced, but you can't expect relentless Alonsoesque consistency from a 17-year-old. Talent is there, just give him time! It is worth noting though that on average Max seems slightly better in races than qualis, while the opposite applies to Carlos.

Bottas struggling to beat Massa this year. They seem pretty even-stevens. 2014 inflated Bottas' rating somewhat. But he is still good, even if not elite.

Other than that, business as usual.

[N. Jones]

UGH on Imola and Monza splitting. Monza is a Legend, you can't leave it off the calendar!

[rjbetty]

I'd like to write such a long post too. But...

In short...

Compared to my pre-season predictions. Well, obviously Red Bull is off, and McLaren is way off. McLaren I was sceptical of from the get-go, but they have been far more rubbish than anyone expected. Red Bull - yeah... Well, I guess the moral is that the disparity between engine performances is still huge. The expectation was before 2015 that the gaps could at least somewhat close, but only Ferrari managed it. Renault is nowhere and Honda is utterly rubbish. Sorry... McLaren is worse than Toyota, BAR/Honda and Jaguar were. This early season claim still stands firm!

As for driver performances... Kvyat is closer to Ricciardo than what I projected. I think Kvyat is a good driver and going well for a 20-year-old! But perhaps not a standout talent. Sort of what I thought of him. I think the crux of the matter is that Ricciardo hasn't been quite as good and stunningly consistent as he was last year. But I still believe Ricciardo has top-notch talent and is just going through a bit of a rough patch of form.

And Vettel is back at his best! Great to see. I as a fan was taken well aback by 2014. We can only wonder, what happened then - was he genuinely unmotivated, burnt out? Must have been. Because as seen - most of the time Vettel is in good form, and that good form means top-notch form and driving talent!

Verstappen is of course very impressive. Obviously still inexperienced, but you can't expect relentless Alonsoesque consistency from a 17-year-old. Talent is there, just give him time! It is worth noting though that on average Max seems slightly better in races than qualis, while the opposite applies to Carlos.

Bottas struggling to beat Massa this year. They seem pretty even-stevens. 2014 inflated Bottas' rating somewhat. But he is still good, even if not elite.

Other than that, business as usual.

Nice post. Yeah I do think Ricciardo is more like Frentzen in 2000 as opposed to 1999.

As for Vettel, I'm not sure that I should actually have put him first. It's so close I can't decide. I don't know about burn-out though. I know a thing or two about burn-out and I can say he would not be able to do what he is doing this year if that were the case. I think he did let his head drop at not being in title contention, but mostly because of the unexpected performance of his team-mate. It was a big weakness and a mark on his claim to greatness as you wouldn't expect that of Alonso. It wasn't good enough really, but I still did find time to be impressed that even though he couldn't get the big results, he always brought home the best he could, and still got a lot of points. He didn't melt down and crash out here and there and lose the plot. He kept working at it. Clearly Ricciardo wasn't beating the Vettel of 2013, but I think Dan did so well that if he were paired with that Vettel, he'd only have been slightly shaded.

As for Max, Button also had some shockers in 2000 along with the supeeeerlative (Murray W) drives.

Just can't decide about Bottas. I think he will go on to be better than Hulkenberg, but can he be a great? He looks a little too conservative for that right now. I don't know how much salt to take a pinch of when Frank Williams said he's as good as anyone who's ever sat in his cars.

[rjbetty]

I think you misunderstood my statement mate. Never did I say I would distribute money. I said I would give every member 1,000 USD, which I have an inexhaustible supply of!

Hey come to think of it I never actually asked what USD was. I assumed it was United States Dollars, but maybe it wasn't...