Situation in Ukraine

[Starter]

But it is supposed to. It's been stated that if Ukraine were a NATO member, then by treaty obligation NATO would have been obliged to act to expel the invaders.

I've highlited the operative words here.

[Starter]

I'm sick of people that scream the word "War" (the most excited ones even use "World War 3") as if it was something really exciting. Anyways, I don't think there is going to be a real war there. It looks like Putin is trying to show who is the boss by sending the troops in Ukraine. He won't switch to the real actions though

There won't be a "real war" so long as everyone rolls over for him (Putin), so you're safe there. Come back in 10 years and tell me how that worked out for you.

[Garry Walker]

But how could this happen? Didn't dunnell once (or rather, on many occasions) say that the Russian military is very weak

I had expected strikes from Russian for a while now, this was obviously the time. People are still forgetting what kind of a country Russia is and who leads it. Anyone thinking the bear is a friendly one and not dangerous anymore, is stupid. The bear has just been waiting for the right time.

But can we really blame Russia? When the biggest countries in the world have such impotent and stupid leaders as Oblongo and Hollande, it is no wonder Putin knows he can get away with pretty much everything.
The first thing the biggest countries in the world should have done in response to this should have been the freezing of all assets of russia and its companies abroad and expelling most of their diplomats. Diplomacy and talk will not get you anywhere with russia or russians - the only thing they understand is brute force.

By now the situation is such that backing down is impossible for Putin - he would show weakness in the eyes of the world and even worse, in the eyes of russians. So that won't happen.

the Russians defending the ethnic Russians in the Crimea, and the disturbingly right wing nationalists in Kiev. .

However, gas and other stuff from Russia is important for Europe, so the latter is at odds about burning bridges.

Just as the money from Europe is very important to Russia.

What about the population pyramids of mostly European countries getting older, which means they need to import more and more non-European workforce?

There is plenty of workforce in Europe, the main problem is that due to generous benefits, far too many people choose being lazy and useless over working.
For your average european, some jobs are not accpetable, whereas the reality should be - you don't work, you get no benefits.

But it is supposed to. It's been stated that if Ukraine were a NATO member, then by treaty obligation NATO would have been obliged to act to expel the invaders.

And who exactly would act? Europeans? Who? There is no strenght in Europe, it has slowly been eaten away.
China? They are in alliance with Russia.
That leaves only America. But with a leader like Oblongo, it has about as much power in the eyes of russians as Malta, Bhutan and other such military powerhouses.

[steveaki13]

Wow. Garry long time no read.

[Garry Walker]

Indeed. I have had very little interest in the joke that is F1 for a while now, but the current political situation is worrying. So that made me look up the link of this forum after probably about half a year at the very least.

[Mark]

Your analysis is broadly correct and Putin knows that too.

[Malbec]

Russia's main Black Sea port is Novorossiysk, not far from Krasnodar. So I can't see any reason why they can't do what you said since the collapse of Soviet Union.

Correction, Novorossiysk is Russia's main Black Sea commercial port. The Russian Black Sea fleet is still based in the Crimea. I know there are moves to shift the base to Russian territory but as of now that hasn't happened.

[Malbec]

And this is what everybody knows and has to deal with - the inevitability of the life on this planet. Big countries (incl also China and others) won't really go in war against each other, it would be a suicide.

Unfortunately I think history has proven this not to be the case.

Both WW1 and WW2 were fought between the biggest economies and trading partners in the world. You could argue that WW2 was necessary to stop two or three overtly aggressive and expansionist country bent on starting a war but WW1 was avoidable yet it happened.

Even today the world's top, second and third biggest economies came close to fighting a war with each other over some uninhabited islands in the East China Sea. And as we can see in Crimea the two largest component countries of the former USSR are inches from war. While I completely agree that its easier for a big country to go to war with a small one and logic should dictate that large powers not go to war with each other in reality it still happens...

[Garry Walker]

This is a nice picture

[Garry Walker]

http://dailycaller.com/2014/02/28/john- ... ama-video/

McCain understands the situation as well.