Situation in Ukraine

[Rudy Tamasz]

Keeping access to a permanently unfrozen port has been a core part of Russian policy for 200+ years. They've been to war with Britain and France over the Crimea over Sevastopol, with Japan over Port Arthur and attempted to secure Afghanistan and later Iran bringing them into conflict with Britain again to get access to the Indian ocean right up to 1945.

This is a pretty good summary of how Russians see the international politics. The problem is, while they are firmly stuck in realpolitik 19th century style, it's 2014 and what had been reasonable back then is not necessarily a good idea now.

I think the EU/USA would have been naive if they had imagined that Putin wouldn't interfere

Russian are stuck in 19th century, but EU/USA are stuck in early 1990s when they pretty much ruled the world and things were going their way. Not anymore, they might be in for a few surprises, too.

[Mark]

As is usual, watch how the rest of the world does nothing but talk about it, threaten sanctions, and point fingers. I really don't know why the UN exists any more. All the evidence in the world doesn't get them to act. The end result is usually one that makes more people suffer, and provides no long term solution.

What would you have them do? This isn't just some tinpot dictator flexing his muscles, this is Russia, it may not be a super power any more, but it's not far off it. Is it world World War 3?

[henners88]

Indeed. I think talking about it and negotiating hard is better than the US complicating things and using it as a platform for flexing their own muscles. The outcome of this could be catastrophic for everybody, especially the countries in Europe who neighbour and could be dragged into a war. I really hope we don't get too involved.

[zako85]

As an Estonian I can say that this situation has made me concerned about the future safety more than ever before and today I was thinking about an "evacuation plan" in case it's needed, because if a war arrives, it is too late to start to think, what to do. It is needed to act immediately and even in a preventive way. Because for a simple person any kind of war brings nothing but suffering - life quality lowers, and there is a real danger of actually getting seriously hurt.

Nah. You have nothing to fear because Russia already "lost" Estonia, since Estonia is already member of EU and NATO. Estonia just shouldn't do things that irritate Russia too much, such as placing NATO nukes or anti-missile defense on its territory. Russia does not want the same to happen to Georgia and Ukraine, that's why it's been so aggressive there. I have a theory that Putin does not even want a formal annexation of Crimea, which is effectively a Russian occupied territory anyways, because then Ukraine would definitely turn to the West. Instead, Russia will maintain Crimea as a hostage. Any time Ukraine leaders take a wrong turn, Russia will stir up some trouble in Crimea and in fact in all of east Ukraine (same goes for South Ossetia in Georgia).

[Franky]

Nah. You have nothing to fear because Russia already "lost" Estonia, since Estonia is already member of EU and NATO.

Being a member doesn't really guarantee anything. Estonia is a very small player and those organizations are more talk-talk. Pretty sure they'd sell Estonia out to guarantee their own safety, when things get hot.

Also NATO is in a bit complicated situation in the long term. Majority of the European NATO members population is aging and the birth rate isn't high enough to have more young people than oldies. Also The European members have been downscaling their armed forces for years. I think in Latvia and Lithuania there's only a small unit for military operations. So European NATO members won't do anything unless Uncle Sam comes to help. Also in the end they might ask themselves, why should I help them. They've lost their importance on the world scale and are becoming one big retirement home.

And even if a war broke out the European nations wouldn't be ready for it due to the smaller and smaller armed forces

[zako85]

This is already happening:

http://jalopnik.com/swiss-air-force-clo ... 1525789830

[MccarthyL]

I'm sick of people that scream the word "War" (the most excited ones even use "World War 3") as if it was something really exciting. Anyways, I don't think there is going to be a real war there. It looks like Putin is trying to show who is the boss by sending the troops in Ukraine. He won't switch to the real actions though

[Mark]

Being a member doesn't really guarantee anything.

But it is supposed to. It's been stated that if Ukraine were a NATO member, then by treaty obligation NATO would have been obliged to act to expel the invaders.

[BleAivano]

This is an exempt from article from 2008:

Ukraine is investigating claims that Russia has been distributing passports in the
port of Sevastopol, raising fears that the Kremlin could be stoking separatist sentiment in the Crimea
as a prelude to possible military intervention.

The allegation has prompted accusations that Russia is using the same tactics employed in the
Georgian breakaway regions of Abhkazia and South Ossetia in order to create a pretext for a war.

Russia handed out passports to the residents of the two provinces, which have long looked to Moscow f
or support, five years ago. The Kremlin has justified its invasion of Georgia in terms of defending its
citizens in Abkhazia and South Ossetia from Georgian "aggression".

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldne ... rimea.html

So Putin uses the same rhetoric and excuses now as when he invaded Georgia.

[Starter]

Indeed. I think talking about it and negotiating hard is better than the US complicating things and using it as a platform for flexing their own muscles. The outcome of this could be catastrophic for everybody, especially the countries in Europe who neighbour and could be dragged into a war. I really hope we don't get too involved.

I agree. We should have minded our own business in 1941 too.