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  1. #11
    Senior Donkey donKey jote's Avatar
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    Re: Situation in Ukraine

    Where are the weapons of mass destruction
    United in diversity !!!

  2. #12
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    Re: Situation in Ukraine

    As an Estonian I can say that this situation has made me concerned about the future safety more than ever before and today I was thinking about an "evacuation plan" in case it's needed, because if a war arrives, it is too late to start to think, what to do. It is needed to act immediately and even in a preventive way. Because for a simple person any kind of war brings nothing but suffering - life quality lowers, and there is a real danger of actually getting seriously hurt.

    Georgia in 2008, now Ukraine in 2014. What unites them and, say, Baltic countries is that we border with Russia and have a Russian minority in them. This means careful politics, because with issues situations can get critical. Obviously Ukraine's economy isn't particularly strong at the moment, which combined with unconfident politics can make people angry and divide them into opposing groups, which is what has happened there.

    UN and NATO help? Let's be serious, no-one really wants to risk with a huge armed conflict against Russia. This would bring way too much suffering to any of the countries to consider it worth practicing. The "best" they may consider are some economical measures, but I guess we'll find out about it next week. However, gas and other stuff from Russia is important for Europe, so the latter is at odds about burning bridges.

  3. #13
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    Re: Situation in Ukraine

    Quote Originally Posted by jens
    UN and NATO help? Let's be serious, no-one really wants to risk with a huge armed conflict against Russia. This would bring way too much suffering to any of the countries to consider it worth practicing. The "best" they may consider are some economical measures, but I guess we'll find out about it next week. However, gas and other stuff from Russia is important for Europe, so the latter is at odds about burning bridges.
    War does bring suffering, mostly to non combatants, however is the short term suffering of a war worst than the long term suffering of living under a dictatorship? People will have different answers to that question.

    I don't think Russia has an appetite for a real war at the moment. Though if Putin keeps winning mostly bloodless wars that attitude could change quickly. Not that the US or anyone else could effectively wage a war at the moment. Putin knows this, he is not a dumb person. There are other reasonably effective ways to take action and Obama has consistently failed to take any of them when it was necessary. Our Secretary of State, Chamberlain....oops sorry, Kerry, was all over the Sunday morning news shows explaining why this isn't really a dispute with Russia and how strongly worded statements would save the day.

    I don't advocate going to war as the only possible path in this. It should be remembered though that you do not achieve a comfortable peace by letting bullies push you around.
    "Old roats am jake mit goats."
    -- Smokey Stover

  4. #14
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    Re: Situation in Ukraine

    Quote Originally Posted by Starter
    War does bring suffering, mostly to non combatants, however is the short term suffering of a war worst than the long term suffering of living under a dictatorship? People will have different answers to that question.

    I don't think Russia has an appetite for a real war at the moment. Though if Putin keeps winning mostly bloodless wars that attitude could change quickly. Not that the US or anyone else could effectively wage a war at the moment. Putin knows this, he is not a dumb person. There are other reasonably effective ways to take action and Obama has consistently failed to take any of them when it was necessary. Our Secretary of State, Chamberlain....oops sorry, Kerry, was all over the Sunday morning news shows explaining why this isn't really a dispute with Russia and how strongly worded statements would save the day.

    I don't advocate going to war as the only possible path in this. It should be remembered though that you do not achieve a comfortable peace by letting bullies push you around.
    I don't think Russia really wants a war either, certainly not one against the big powers of the world. However, Putin likes to play a bit of a high-stakes poker and tries to anticipate the moments, where he can capitalize on opportunities without the West really and truly reacting. He did it with Georgia's South-Ossetia, now doing with Crimea. Putin likes to 'defend' or 'protect' his compatriots in foreign countries, and if said country is in a political upheaval, he has a stronger argument in getting involved.

    I remember back in Estonia here was a revolt in 2007 mostly by Russians, who were unhappy about a war statue getting removed. However, the situation was brought relatively quickly under control and Russia didn't have a good opportunity to get involved.

    In terms of suffering v war. I think it is about every person's unique situation and feeling. If the economical situation is bad and people suffer from poverty. Or they are in pain due to big violation of human rights, they are more prone to "war mentality", especially if they see an alternative, because they are suffering already and war doesn't make a big difference to them - but they have hope the solution may be an improvement.

    Most people however do not want war, because they have something to lose in life already (be it family, home, finances) and there is a big danger a war would force them to lose it.

    I agree about the need to keep the "bullies" in check, and the only thing to do it is with effective and strong measures. But Russia's case is a bit unique, because unfortunately for major powers they are bit too big to really keep in check without taking big risks in their own livelihood. USA can go to Iraq, Afghanistan and have a successful (?) war there without having to fear about their own country collapsing. But they can't afford it with Russia.

    And this is what everybody knows and has to deal with - the inevitability of the life on this planet. Big countries (incl also China and others) won't really go in war against each other, it would be a suicide. So for them the answer is "diplomacy" and "making sacrifices to reach a solution". If sacrifice or should I say "crisis solution" means that someone (say, Russia) gets a piece of land somewhere, and USA gets some economical benefits (something for everyone), then that's it. And small countries like Estonia have to deal with it. The inevitability of the world and history.

  5. #15
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    Re: Situation in Ukraine

    Quote Originally Posted by steveaki13
    In todays world where everything seems so settled and sure, we now have a very worrying situation. Not helped by the treaty that the US, UK & others have signed in the past stating they will take action should Russia get involved anywhere.
    I have also felt that "history" seems to be sort of over or at least "settled", and certainly it felt like that for many people after the collapse of the Soviet block around 1989-1991.

    However, I think what we are seeing is that "history" never comes to an end. And any kind of stability is temporary, because situations in the world constantly evolve and change.

    Things may be better or at least look good now, but you never know, what might happen. What about energy crisis in the future? What about the population pyramids of mostly European countries getting older, which means they need to import more and more non-European workforce? Not to mention post-2009 economic crisis to which there is still no good solution? All these are the issues, which affect politics as well. And depending on how critical these issues get, will make political situations just as critical too.

    As you mention political treaties - basically they are all based on political and economical reality. Treaties last only as long as they are "useful". By this I mean you can have a treaty, but if you do not have measures to implement it, the treaty goes down the toilet in a critical condition. For instance you may sign a treaty to ensure peace of the world, but if implementing this means a nuclear war, which destroys everything, you are not going to pursue fulfilling the criterias of said treaty.

  6. #16
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    Re: Situation in Ukraine

    Quote Originally Posted by Franky
    UN is just like it's predecessor the League of Nations.
    If I am not mistaken, Russia has actually the right of a veto at United Nations, so they can ban any action against themselves.

    Basically something like UN can be used only in doing something about the conflicts of smaller countries. This is where they have sent their 'peace forces'. However, when big countries with veto rights get involved, there is nothing to do. This is where the big boys have to reach a resolution by themselves.

  7. #17
    Senior Member Rollo's Avatar
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    Re: Situation in Ukraine

    Quote Originally Posted by donKey jote
    Where are the weapons of mass destruction
    Not in Ukraine. They were dismantled in 1994 under the terms of the Budapest Memorandum.
    The Old Republic was a stupidly run organisation which deserved to be taken over. All Hail Palpatine!

  8. #18
    Senior Member BleAivano's Avatar
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    Re: Situation in Ukraine

    New York, 2 March 2014 - Statement attributable to the Spokesperson for the Secretary-General on Ukraine

    Following the Security Council's consultations and given the developments on the ground in Ukraine,
    the Secretary-General is dispatching Deputy Secretary-General Jan Eliasson to the country this evening.

    While in Ukraine, the Deputy Secretary-General will be personally apprised of the facts on the ground and
    will subsequently brief the Secretary-General on the next steps the United Nations could take to support
    the de-escalation of the situation
    http://www.un.org/sg/statements/index.asp?nid=7494
    ...Funny how ev'rything was roses when we held on to the guns...

  9. #19
    Senior Member Rollo's Avatar
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    Re: Situation in Ukraine

    Can I apologise in advance on behalf of the nation in which I live, for being America's yappy little spineless lapdog.
    Australia in 2014 is both on the UN Security Council and heads the G20, which means that you'll be hearing a lot from our PM Tony Abbott... spruiking whatever Washington tells him to.
    The Old Republic was a stupidly run organisation which deserved to be taken over. All Hail Palpatine!

  10. #20
    Senior Member Rudy Tamasz's Avatar
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    Re: Situation in Ukraine

    Quote Originally Posted by Franky
    Quote Originally Posted by Malbec
    The Crimea is Russia's last permanently unfrozen port that also gives them a lot of leverage in the Middle East as they can supply Syria directly by sea through there without foreign interference.
    Russia's main Black Sea port is Novorossiysk, not far from Krasnodar. So I can't see any reason why they can't do what you said since the collapse of Soviet Union.
    From what I heard, Novorossiysk is way less convenient that Sevastopol. You also need to factor in the huge costs of relocating the navy from one port to another. That said, I still think that even getting full control over an important port does not yet justify risking a war. Russia might be making a big mistake.
    Llibertat

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