Situation in Ukraine

[steveaki13]

It is beginning to seem to me, that Russia has been sending in the guys who are taking hold of TV stations and public buildings.

I mean when you see those guys. They are fully kitted out with uniforms, guns and stuff which normal rebels don't have. Now after these guys taking hold of area's in Crimea, Russia have there Army waiting at the border.

It looks to me folks like Russia has infiltrated Crimea with the idea of taking it back with a full blown invasion.

I know its hard to believe these days that these things could happen, but looking at the situation its looking bad.

Just shows you never know what is going to happen tomorrow.

A week ago, I would not think there was a risk of Russia returning to its old ways, but it appears to be a planned operation.

In todays world where everything seems so settled and sure, we now have a very worrying situation. Not helped by the treaty that the US, UK & others have signed in the past stating they will take action should Russia get involved anywhere.

Might have seemed like a good idea at the time, but when something like this happens its more worrying. I know it probably wont come to it. But if it ever got to War point, no one can risk fighting Russia these days.

What do you guys think?

[Starter]

Putin has wet dreams about returning Russia to the glories of the USSR. I fully expect an across the border excursion soon. If nothing else they will occupy Crimea in order to secure access to the Mediterranean.

The US, under Obama and to be fair just about anyone else too, will bluster and talk about sanctions and such but will do noting what so ever to prevent it. The rest of Europe will do nothing either without America taking the lead (read that as spending all the money and sending most of the troops).

The end result will be an emboldened Putin and bad news for the countries formerly part of the USSR, perhaps soon to be part of it again like it or not. Perhaps bad news also for their close European neighbors.

[Franky]

I know its hard to believe these days that these things could happen, but looking at the situation its looking bad.

Few months ago read a book called 'The New Nobility' which is about the new rise of the Russian intelligence forces. Based on that book I can say that "these days" have been back for several years already. Take the Georgian-Russian conflict. You never know when the bear gets hungry.

[Malbec]

Putin has wet dreams about returning Russia to the glories of the USSR. I fully expect an across the border excursion soon. If nothing else they will occupy Crimea in order to secure access to the Mediterranean.

Keeping access to a permanently unfrozen port has been a core part of Russian policy for 200+ years. They've been to war with Britain and France over the Crimea over Sevastopol, with Japan over Port Arthur and attempted to secure Afghanistan and later Iran bringing them into conflict with Britain again to get access to the Indian ocean right up to 1945. The Crimea is Russia's last permanently unfrozen port that also gives them a lot of leverage in the Middle East as they can supply Syria directly by sea through there without foreign interference. I can see exactly why any Russian leader, not just Putin, would find it unacceptable to see a weakening of their grip over the ports there. I think the EU/USA would have been naive if they had imagined that Putin wouldn't interfere, but then again the Russian's can't expect to take over parts of Ukraine with impunity, its not tiny like Georgia or Chechnya and the latter is still causing Moscow big headaches.

[Franky]

The Crimea is Russia's last permanently unfrozen port that also gives them a lot of leverage in the Middle East as they can supply Syria directly by sea through there without foreign interference.

Russia's main Black Sea port is Novorossiysk, not far from Krasnodar. So I can't see any reason why they can't do what you said since the collapse of Soviet Union.

[Mintexmemory]

No wonder Yanukovych didn't want the possibility of EU membership gaining momentum, clearly knew what the Russians would do in the event of the Ukrainian Nationalists gaining power. Clearly we now have 2 fairly entrenched parties in opposition, the Russians defending the ethnic Russians in the Crimea, and the disturbingly right wing nationalists in Kiev. Don't think Russia can afford to escalate on a long term basis but expect that the shutting down of pipelines will be the next move.

[Jag_Warrior]

Ah... The Budapest Memorandum. Good grief!

The second dumbest thing that Billy Clinton signed, with NAFTA being the first. Now I'm remembering why I didn't like that guy when he was in office. Eight years of Goofball Bush and one tends to forget.

To hold up our end of the bargain, couldn't we just carpet bomb Brighton Beach, NY and call it even?

[Franky]

It's escalating quickly now. Ukraine has started mobilization and Crimea is controlled by Russian forces.

[airshifter]

As is usual, watch how the rest of the world does nothing but talk about it, threaten sanctions, and point fingers. I really don't know why the UN exists any more. All the evidence in the world doesn't get them to act. The end result is usually one that makes more people suffer, and provides no long term solution.

[Franky]

UN is just like it's predecessor the League of Nations.