2014 Silly Season

[steveaki13]

Ideal line up for Mercedes in the long run would be Vettel & Rosberg I suppose to form an all conquering German/Mercedes line up, of course then Lewis is out. So this would be 2015-2016 maybe, by then though things change alot.

Kobayashi in the Ferrari F1 next year would be exciting for sure, whether it could ever happen though. I would loveto see it, It would really throw a double six.

[zako85]

I'm gonna approach this from another angle. If i were a driver with a chance to take a seat at RB, i might question the competitiveness there come next season. Their "aero" run of a possible 4 titles may very well be over.

I suspect this successful "aero" run was not by a chance. It was enabled by specific very talented people, engineers and drivers. Most of them are not going away from Red Bull, so my subjective odds of RedBull building a successful front running car again are very high. Of course, Mercedes is quite a technology powerhouse. Building their own engine and car may benefit them, although it also may not, if you look at the bad luck Ferrari had with its new 3.5L V12 in the 90s. There were probably other examples of manufacturer teams struggling with a new engine. By the way, I believe in 2011 Rosberg signed a new 5-year contract and Hamilton signed a 3-year contract last year, so both Mercedes seats will be occupied until the end of 2015.

[RedBullian1]

Now that the first domino has fallen:

Raikonnen to Red Bull, which leaves a vacancy at Lotus that is filled by the guy RBR was supposed to install, so Horner negotiates the Raikonnen deal which places
Ricciardo at Lotus. But Lotus is rumored to be needing at least one pay driver, which means Grosjean is out, and . . .
Maldonado to Lotus. Ferrari are ready to move on without Massa, so
Rosberg to Ferrari, which means someone finally gets their Mercedes dream:
di Resta to Mercedes. And with Force India switching to Ferrari engines (they are, aren't they?),
Bianchi to Force India and Sutil stays. But back to STR, who now need to promote someone, so
da Costa to Toro Rosso, with Vergne, who gets another year. Williams need to replace Pastor, so
Grosjean to Williams, who retain Bottas.

Now on to the also rans:

Although I think he has done a good job, Giedo is likely to get the boot and
Alexander Rossi moves to Caterham, joining Pic. The luckless Hulkenberg has nowhere to go so he stays, and his new teammate is an old employee:
Massa to Sauber, replacing Gutierrez, whose only hope is to be a 3rd driver somewhere. The final piece is Chilton's teammate, and I'm going with
Petrov to Marussia.

The only team that continues with their current line-up is McLaren.

There's an 80% chance that I'm wrong about just about everything above.

I really hope Valsecchi gets the nod at Lotus.

Rosberg to Ferrari makes Ferrari title contenders again. It will be them and Red Bull if that would happen, but Red Bull with Vettel and Kimi would be unreal

[Ranger]

So whilst Red Bull are deciding between Raikkonen, Ricciardo and Vergne, Hulkenberg is on the move (again):

Nico Hulkenberg is free to leave the Sauber outfit with immediate effect if he wishes, after he and his manager activated a termination clause in his contract with the team. Hulkenberg is however likely to remain with Sauber until the end of the season, but a move elsewhere after that is highly likely amidst rumours that the team is under intense financial strain which has resulted in non-payment of employee wages - including Hulkenberg's. - See more at: Hulkenberg terminates his Sauber contract

So we have:

Red Bull - Vettel, TBA
Mercedes - Hamilton, Rosberg
Ferrari - Alonso, TBA
Lotus - TBA, TBA
Force India - di Resta, TBA
McLaren - Perez, Button
Sauber - TBA, TBA
Williams - TBA, TBA
Marussia - TBA, TBA
Caterham - Pic, TBA

Unless he gets a promotion, I'd have to think Bottas will be staying at Williams.
I still think Massa will get a contract from Ferrari.
Grosjean might just be doing enough to keep his seat.
Maldonado I'm sure will turn up next year.

[jens]

Merged threads.

Red Bull - Vettel, TBA
Mercedes - Hamilton, Rosberg
Ferrari - Alonso, TBA
Lotus - TBA, TBA
Force India - di Resta, TBA
McLaren - Perez, Button
Sauber - TBA, TBA
Williams - TBA, TBA
Marussia - TBA, TBA
Caterham - Pic, TBA

Unless he gets a promotion, I'd have to think Bottas will be staying at Williams.
I still think Massa will get a contract from Ferrari.
Grosjean might just be doing enough to keep his seat.
Maldonado I'm sure will turn up next year.

Maldonado-Bottas at Williams is likely unless PDVSA pulls out following the early-year Venezuelan elections. Some stronger team could be interested in Bottas too, but doesn't seem to be the case yet.

In all honesty, I would like to see a change in Ferrari's second seat and have been waiting for it since 2011 to be frank. Every year it is the same story - Massa has 3-4 good races after which it is claimed that the "old Felipe" is back, but overall the Brazilian falls into his traditional inconsistent form. In a situation, where next year we are going to have very strong Hamilton-Rosberg and potentially Vettel-Räikkönen line-ups, Ferrari will be struggling to compete against them with 1.5 drivers. Half, because this is the amount of points Massa usually collects of Alonso's points total. The likes of di Resta, Hülkenberg or even Ricciardo are not guaranteed to do better, but at least there is a chance they could. While with Massa it is now clear this is the best we are going to get from him.

Regarding Grosjean I'd have to wait until the end of the season. His form is massively inconsistent, but unlike Massa at least there is a chance he has not reached his peak yet and with Räikkönen leaving Lotus may feel they need at least some continuity. We will see. However, Romain has shown one good trait in 2013 - that he is able to learn. His racecraft has been much better this year, while last year he looked like a hopeless crashaholic at times. Needless to say, some even doubted if his peripheral vision is actually to F1 standards. His Monaco weekend was a bit scruffy, but race starts have all been flawless from what I can recall.

Sauber is tricky. If the rumours about financial issues are true, then... well, they could end up with anyone with bags full of cash in the two driving seats next year. It would be harsh for F1 if another team falls into this category, but what can you do.

Force India. Di Resta has a deal for 2014? I don't know that. But he is under consideration for Lotus. However, I wonder if Force India could once again replace one of their drivers, which is what they have usually done each year. If di Resta stays put, could Sutil's seat be under threat? Despite the German having done a solid job. He could have flashbacks to 2011, when he had a strong season, yet was left without a drive.

[N4D13]

Ferrari will be struggling to compete against them with 1.5 drivers. Half, because this is the amount of points Massa usually collects of Alonso's points total.

This is rather harsh. One could argue that Red Bull had just 1.64 drivers in 2012 and Lotus, 1.46. Also there's no guarantee that anyone who replaces Massa at Ferrari will do any better than Felipe.

[jens]

This is rather harsh. One could argue that Red Bull had just 1.64 drivers in 2012 and Lotus, 1.46. Also there's no guarantee that anyone who replaces Massa at Ferrari will do any better than Felipe.

There is never a guarantee, this isn't the matter. In competition there are no guarantees, you can have an unforeseen accident and be out of contention. But a younger and newer driver would have a greater development potential. After all, we are talking about future seasons. After all, F1 is business. And successful businessmen know well enough that in order to succeed they need to take calculated risks. You may get it wrong, but without these you wouldn't be successful. Ferrari is now in such situation and let's be honest, replacing Massa isn't that much of a risk anyway. Because he isn't contributing much to WCC. I know Felipe is a nice guy and brings harmony to Ferrari, but if the harmony doesn't bring you results, you have to question its point.

I really don't see a downside. Let's say Ferrari hires Hülkenberg. And in 2014 he collects 50% of Alonso's points. So? It is still better than Massa. Why? Because Hülkenberg is younger, new to the team and is likely to have a stronger season in 2015 and has more long-term future beyond that as well. In addition he brings fresh energy and new perspective to the team. They have continuity with Alonso anyway.

Seriously, I don't see, how bringing about half of your team-mates is a strong achievement. Usually drivers, who do that, are always considered to be replaced. Kovalainen collected about half of Hamilton's points. And he was considered so bad that everyone wanted to see him gone from McLaren. You mentioned Grosjean's 1.46. Well, it was bad enough to make everyone re-think whether he is worthy of F1 seat at all and the only saving grace was that he was still pretty new to F1. While Massa has no inexperience excuses.

[donKey jote]

Silly season?

Carlos Sainz for the 2nd Red Bull seat !

[Ranger]

Sauber are giving a drive to Russian Sergey Sirotkin who will be 18 next year, in return for his father securing the teams future funds.

Sauber eases financial issues with new Russian sponsors but must give Formula One race seat to backer's son - Telegraph

Amazing. Can anyone say... nepotism?

Hopefully will be decent, seeing as he has beaten much more accomplished and proven drivers to a mid-field Formula 1 team.

[briere]

I apologise, but it does not approach me.