Ott Tänak - Future champion?

[mknight]

The big (seemingly unasked) question is why he signed for Hyundai and how he views the decision now.

Loeb was saying the same things about the car (particularly on tarmac) a year before, Mikkelsen a year before that again. Both had drastic drops of performance on tarmac.

Yet Tanak thought that he would make it work?

Lessons learned about overconfidence after 2 years of career "lost"?

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Other than that the interesting bit is that they didn't test the new car on gravel at all.

[cali]

We all know why he left Toyota, nothing to do with your called "overconfidence"

[AnttiL]

Contracts are never that simple. It's not just about finding the perfect car for the upcoming season. I think it was simple as being in a dead end at Toyota and M-Sport obviously out of question. You have to make compromises and maybe he was already thinking beyond the current WRC era? And like we saw he made more stage wins in 2021 than anyone else, it's not like the car suited him especially bad, although I'm quite sure that in a Toyota, he would have won at least one of 2020 and 2021 titles if not both, even against Ogier in the same car.

[mknight]

We all know why he left Toyota, nothing to do with your called "overconfidence"

His own words were that when he saw Neuville fighting with him in GB 2019 he got convinced that the Hyundai is a winning car and (finally?) decided to leave.

Surely some reflection on that would be in order.

[mknight]

Contracts are never that simple. It's not just about finding the perfect car for the upcoming season. I think it was simple as being in a dead end at Toyota and M-Sport obviously out of question. You have to make compromises and maybe he was already thinking beyond the current WRC era? And like we saw he made more stage wins in 2021 than anyone else, it's not like the car suited him especially bad, although I'm quite sure that in a Toyota, he would have won at least one of 2020 and 2021 titles if not both, even against Ogier in the same car.

Don't buy that he was thinking about 2022. Specially after his talk about "having the title chance now" in Toyota in 2018.

As you know at Hyundai he was often pushing.even when not completely happy with the car. (Monte 2x, Mexico 20, Estonia 21, Spain 21.., not to count the punctures in important moments).
Resulted in stageiwns but not many points ( see how many stagewins are from Estonia this year).

[AnttiL]

Don't buy that he was thinking about 2022. Specially after his talk about "having the title chance now" in Toyota in 2018.

He was talking about using the title chance in 2018 yes, but he got the title in 2019. We know that he signed for Hyundai before Catalunya was finished, but the title was essentially in his pocket that year already. I would say the decision was easier to make after he got at least one title for his career. And at the same time we remember how Toyota was breaking down all the time for him (remember Sardinia power stage), like Hyundai started to do in 2021 while that behaviour stopped for Toyotas!

As you know at Hyundai he was often pushing.even when not completely happy with the car. (Monte 2x, Mexico 20, Estonia 21, Spain 21.., not to count the punctures in important moments).
Resulted in stageiwns but not many points ( see how many stagewins are from Estonia this year).

I would say it's more down to the car breaking in Portugal and Sardinia. Estonia was his own fault, yes.

I would say Monte 2020 and Mexico 2020 mistakes were due to him trying to go with same driving style as Toyota but it didn't work out with Hyundai, especially in Monte (and it was a new stage anyway, a very very fast section unlike anything in the previous years)

Estonia and Spain were already frustration after having lost the title (like he said in the interview).

He won a lot of stages in Estonia in super rally, but he would have won as many, had he been leading the event.

[mknight]

My point is:

- He didn't go to Hyundai to get 3rd and 5th place in championship (and only 2 rally wins). It is very likely he would have done better in Toyota.

- The "car issues" were quite known by the time he signed. With 3 to 4 drivers suddenly struggling in the car (Loeb, Mikkelsen, Paddon and partly Sordo (from tarmac specialist to "slow gravel" specialist))

=> He was confident he (and the team) would make the car work and they did not.
= overconfidence, just like Loeb had when he signed for Hyundai at end of 2018 or like Ogier had when he signed for Citroen in C3

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In retrospective, if he knew how it would turn out in Hyundai would he stay at Toyota? / Was it really impossible to stay?

[AnttiL]

To me it seems he was frustrated at two issues in Toyota
1) bad atmosphere in the team, especially the bosses
2) car breaking all the time

Maybe he saw developing Hyundai as a challenge that was more interesting than continuing the same way at Toyota? In the end he managed to develop Hyundai on gravel to be similar as Toyota in 2019 (capable of winning on slow and fast gravel rallies, but prone to technical failures), but not improve the tarmac handling (like he said in the interview, because of decisions that couldn't be rectified with homologation jokers).¨

Also there's the story that Dani Sordo invited Tänak into his hotel room during some 2019 rally. I need to recheck this story but IIRC this is where Adamo met Tänak for the first time. Maybe Tänak felt that he could make the car work for title fight since Thierry was able to do so, and also Sordo managed the car well on gravel and tarmac.

And once again, contracts are not as simple as just picking the best car at some moment. Cars develop constantly and the car that is best now might not be best next year etc.

[AnttiL]

- Was asked about the missing of the final rally. Says that him not going wouldn't change the championship but would save a life of someone at home. It was important to be at home for a month and be a father for his family

I want to believe him but I think he still attended some tests just before and/or after Monza?

[er88]

He also got a big fat contract and Redgrey running the wrc2 Hyundais.

So not quite as cut and dry as either "he was overconfident/ or he hated the Toyota atmosphere". Lots of reasons combined would've resulted in him switching teams, including the above.

There were a hell of a lot of people on here, including myself, who were sure it wasn't a good move from a purely sporting sense, and that's been the case. He'd probably be a triple world champion by now had he stayed at Toyota (as Ogier wouldn't be in the Toyota had Ott not left the team).